974
FXUS63 KAPX 011849
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
249 PM EDT TUE APR 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SUNSHINE, ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS, AND MAINLY LIGHT WINDS TO AID
RECOVERY EFFORTS ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN TODAY.
- MIXED PRECIPITATION (SNOW, SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN) RETURNS
WEDNESDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN INTERIOR LOCATIONS OF
NORTHERN LOWER SEEING UP TO A TENCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION.
- STRONG EAST WINDS WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
- WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 427 AM EDT TUE APR 1 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS:
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHING WILL PIVOT ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA AS
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OVER THE EAST COAST
TODAY. MEANWHILE, RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY, PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT THAT WILL BUILD SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE FROM HUDSON BAY DOWN INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.
FORECAST DETAILS:
THE MUCH-NEEDED BREAK IN PRECIP-FREE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WILL PERSIST, LEADING TO PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN -- ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE MOST HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECASTS ARE RELATIVELY UNIMPACTFUL
THIS TIME OF YEAR, TODAY'S WILL BE OF PARTICULAR INTEREST WITH
RECOVERY EFFORTS IN FULL FORCE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE MOST HEAVILY-HIT ICING AREAS LOOK TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING BY
EARLY AFTERNOON, REACHING INTO THE MID 30S FOR HIGHS FOR MOST
INTERIOR AREAS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THOSE CLOSEST TO THE LAKE
HURON SHORELINE AS EAST WINDS KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING.
REGARDLESS, AFOREMENTIONED TEMPERATURES, SUNSHINE, AND HIGH SUN
ANGLE WILL WORK TO MELT CURRENT ICING FROM TREES -- PERHAPS
SUBSTANTIALLY. IF THIS MATERIALIZES, IT WOULD HELP MITIGATE FUTURE
CONTINUED IMPACTS TO A DEGREE AS STRONG WINDS RETURN LATER TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALREADY DAMAGED/COMPROMISED TREES AND LIMBS
MAY STILL POSE ISSUES WITH 25-40+ MPH WIND GUSTS MOVING IN EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. OUR NEXT ROUND OF WINTER PRECIP ARRIVES EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WELL, BUT WILL RESERVE DISCUSSION OF THE
INCOMING SYSTEM FOR THE LONG TERM SECTION.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 427 AM EDT TUE APR 1 2025
FORECAST PATTERN... PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN MI
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A LEE SIDE SURFACE LOW RACES TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES FROM CO. AMPLE PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND PLAINS (THANKS TO A LARGE UPPER LOW THAT FINALLY
MOVED ONSHORE FROM THE PAC NW). AS THE PRECIP SHIELD MOVES OVER
MI EARLY WEDNESDAY, MOST PLACES WILL INITIALLY SEE SNOW. SNOW
AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW AN INCH FOR NW LOWER, BUT NE LOWER
AND EASTERN UPPER COULD SEE AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES. THIS IS DUE
TO A TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN OVER NW LOWER AROUND MID
MORNING (A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN NE LOWER). FREEZING RAIN WILL
LAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS, RESULTING IN ANYWHERE FROM A
GLAZE TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OVER MUCH OF INTERIOR NORTHERN
LOWER. AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CAN'T BE RULED OUT,
HOWEVER CHANCES ARE LOW. STRONG EAST WINDS WILL BE SEEN OVER
MOST OF NORTHERN MI DURING THIS TIME AS WELL, WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS UP TO 20 MPH. GUSTS WILL LIKELY REACH 25 TO 30 MPH.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL START TO WARM FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH MOST SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER
NORTHERN LOWER REACHING ABOVE FREEZING BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE
WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH QUIET WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY.
FORECAST DETAILS... SNOW - THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SNOW
AMOUNT FORECASTS. THE INGREDIENTS WILL BE PRESENT FOR SNOW WITH
THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP SHIELD, HOWEVER THE TIMING OF THE WARM
NOSE REACHING NORTHERN LOWER WILL DICTATE HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION
WILL FALL IN SNOW. CURRENTLY, HIGH RES GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THIS; WITH SOME DEPICTING A
VERTICAL PROFILE ALL BELOW FREEZING THROUGH NOON FOR NE LOWER
AND SOME BRINGING THE WARM NOSE IN BY MID MORNING. STRONG EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER NORTHERN LK HURON COMBINED WITH COLDER
850 MB TEMPS WILL ALSO LEAD TO SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT FOR THE
NORTH LK HURON COASTLINE OF EASTERN UPPER. THIS COULD INCREASE
FORECASTED AMOUNTS BY A FEW INCHES.
FREEZING RAIN - THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TIMING OF
THE WARM NOSE WILL ALSO PLAY INTO ICE ACCUMULATIONS. THERE IS
HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS OVER AREAS WEST OF I-75
AND SOUTH OF M-72, AS THE PRECIP SHIELD AND WARM NOSE WILL
ARRIVE HERE FIRST WHILE WE REACH OUR MORNING LOW TEMPS (WHICH
WILL BE BELOW FREEZING). THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE ACTUAL AMOUNTS
HERE LIES IN HOW LONG SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE
LOW 30S. THE TREND WILL BE TO WARM THROUGHOUT THE DAY, REACHING
HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S LATER WEDNESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT, A
1036 MB HIGH OVER EASTERN ONTARIO CAN WILL HELP REINFORCE COOLER
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER THERE IS A QUESTION ON IF THAT
WILL OVERCOME OTHER AIRMASS MODIFICATIONS FOR THE SOUTHERN PARTS
OF NW LOWER. DUE TO THIS, THE HIGHEST HILLS WILL HAVE SOME OF
THE BEST CHANCES WITH REMAINING COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE
ACCUMULATIONS (HIGH TERRAIN IN WEXFORD, GRAND TRAVERSE,
MISSAUKEE, AND KALKASKA). AT THIS TIME, FORECASTED ICE AMOUNTS
REMAIN AROUND A GLAZE TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE. THE HIGHEST
POSSIBLE ICE AMOUNTS COULD REACH A QUARTER OF AN INCH ON SOME
PLACES.
WINDS - HIGHER CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN STRONG EAST WINDS BEING SEEN
FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. A ~13 MB SURFACE
GRADIENT WILL BE SEEN OVER THE PENINSULA AS THE 985MB SURFACE
CYCLONE MOVES OVER MN/WI. GUSTS COULD BE A LITTLE MORE SPORADIC,
BUT THE MAX COULD REACH UP TO 35 MPH AT TIMES. DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH ICE MELTS TODAY, WINDS COULD RESULT IN SOME OF THE LARGEST
IMPACTS WEDNESDAY AS TREES MAY BE MORE VULNERABLE TO THESE
STRONG WINDS. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AND THEN WEST BY
THURSDAY MORNING AND BECOMING GUSTY. WINDS WILL FINALLY DIMINISH
THURSDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 246 PM EDT TUE APR 1 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN MICHIGAN TERMINALS
THROUGH THE 18Z TAF VALID TIME. AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL
SPREAD A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WINTRY
MIX WILL DEGRADE CONDITIONS TO LOW-END MVFR OR IFR. LLWS WILL
ALSO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DJC
LONG TERM...ELD
AVIATION...PBB
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