417
FXUS63 KAPX 012351
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
751 PM EDT TUE APR 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MIXED PRECIPITATION (SNOW, SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN) RETURNS
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN PORTIONS
OF INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SEEING UP TO TWO TENTHS
OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION.
- STRONG EAST WINDS WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
- THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY EVENING. A STRONG STORM OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE, MAINLY SOUTH OF M-72.
- MILDER THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND
SOME 50S.
- GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT TUE APR 1 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS: A STRONG WAVE AND ASSOCIATED 150KT JET STREAK
WILL EJECT OUT OF A STRENGTHENING WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN TROF
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS UPPER-LEVEL FORCING WILL DRIVE
A SUB-990 MB SURFACE LOW NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST DETAILS: THE LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA IS VERY DRY AT THE MOMENT AS SHOWN BY FAIRLY ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE TODAY AND AFTERNOON RH VALUES OF 30% OR LOWER IN MANY
AREAS. CLOUDS WILL DRAMATICALLY INCREASE THIS EVENING AS STRONG
ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM AND
TOP-DOWN MOISTENING OCCURS. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY BEGIN
AS SNOW, BUT STRONG WAA ALOFT WILL PRODUCE AN ELEVATED ABOVE
FREEZING LAYER WHICH WILL SUPPORT A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN,
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE AFTERNOON
WHICH WILL HAVE THE FREEZING RAIN CHANGE TO JUST RAIN. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL SUPPORT SOME THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT, AND A STRONG STORM CAN'T BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE
STRONG WIND FIELDS AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. EVEN OUTSIDE
OF THUNDERSTORMS GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED, WITH GUSTS
TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE.
WILL BE POSTING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA FOR A PORTION OF THE PERIOD GIVEN THE WINTRY MIX
ANTICIPATED. THE HEAVIEST ICE POTENTIAL WILL BE IN THE INTERIOR OF
THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD CADILLAC.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT TUE APR 1 2025
THE DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK OFF TO OUR WEST
SWEEPING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH 40S
TO LOW 50S LIKELY IN THE EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY DROPPING OFF AFTER
MIDNIGHT (THIS SHOULD HELP MELT OFF A MAJORITY OF THE ICE LEFTOVER
FROM THE HISTORIC ICE STORM). HOWEVER, IT WON'T HELP REBUILD THE
SEVERELY DAMAGED POWER GRID ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER. SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND CONTINUE TO BE VERY GUSTY (30 TO
40+ MPH). THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING WITH A STRONG
STORM OR TWO POSSIBLE, MAINLY SOUTH OF M-72. THIS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO POSE PROBLEMS FOR WEAKENED TREES AND POWER LINES.
HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED MILDER AIR IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND
THIS HOLDS INTO FRIDAY. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S, WITH SOME 50S
LIKELY SPRINKLED IN (ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO SAGINAW BAY). WESTERLY
WINDS THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG AT BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 35 OR EVEN 40 MPH (AGAIN NOT IDEAL GIVEN THE CURRENT
SITUATION IN LOTS OF AREAS).
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK BY WELL TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY BUT
IT WILL STILL BRING A CHANCE FOR MAINLY RAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-
72. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MILD 40S TO LOW 50S.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHING DROPS DOWN FROM
THE NORTH RETURNING COLDER AIR ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR A FEW RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S.
MOST NIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW FREEZING, IN SOME CASES WELL BELOW
FREEZING. THIS IS NOT IDEAL FOR THE TENS OF THOUSANDS OF PEOPLE
CURRENTLY WITHOUT COMMERCIAL HEAT OR POWER.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 751 PM EDT TUE APR 1 2025
MIXED WINTRY PRECIP RETURNS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD WI.
HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALREADY EXTENSIVE. CIGS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER
TONIGHT, AND -SN SHOULD BREAK OUT AT MBL/TVC BY 06-07Z, AND
REACHING THE OTHER SITES IN THE MORNING. SN TURNS TO RA AT
MBL/TVC BY MIDDAY TUESDAY; THERE MIGHT BE SOME BRIEF FZRA
DURING THE TRANSITION, MORE LIKELY AT TVC. PLN/APN MIX WITH
FZRA AND RA IN THE AFTERNOON, WHILE CIU STAYS ALL SNOW. TAFS
WILL BE VFR MOST OF TONIGHT, MVFR TUE MORNING, MVFR TO IFR IN
THE AFTERNOON. NOTE THAT APN/PLN CONTINUE TO DEAL WITH POWER
OUTAGES.
E TO SE WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTIER TUESDAY.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
MIZ016>018-022>024-029-030-036-098-099.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
MIZ020-021-025>028-031>035-041-042.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
MIZ086>088-095>097.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ323-341-
342-344>346.
GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ321-322.
SHORT TERM...PBB
LONG TERM...AJS
AVIATION...JZ
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