212
FXUS63 KAPX 020203
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1003 PM EDT TUE APR 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MIXED PRECIPITATION (SNOW, SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN) RETURNS LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN PORTIONS OF INTERIOR
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SEEING UP TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE
ACCUMULATION.
- STRONG EAST WINDS WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
- THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY EVENING. A STRONG STORM OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE, MAINLY SOUTH OF M-72.
- MILDER THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND
SOME 50S.
- GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1002 PM EDT TUE APR 1 2025
WARM ADVECTION WING IS DEVELOPING TOWARD MI, AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
SYSTEM. THIS IS VIRGA THUS FAR IN SW LOWER MI, WITH SOME PRECIP
BACK IN WI. PRECIP WILL DEVELOP NE-WARD, REACHING NW LOWER MI
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS INITIAL BAND IS THEN PROGGED TO WEAKEN AS
IT CONTINUES NORTHWARD, WHILE A 2ND BAND REDEVELOPS OVER CENTRAL
LOWER MI TOWARD MORNING. THOUGH SURFACE TEMPS ARE SOMEWHAT
ABOVE FREEZING IN SPOTS (TVC/FKS/MBL), SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. SO...1) PRECIP HAS SIGNIFICANT DRY
AIR TO OVERCOME, AND 2) EVAP COOLING WILL KEEP THINGS ALL SNOW
FOR US. THAT SAID, OVERNIGHT QPF HAS BEEN REDUCED SOMEWHAT. SNOW
AMOUNTS THRU 8 AM WILL BE AROUND AN INCH AT MBL/CAD/GLADWIN,
TAPERING TO THE NORTH.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT TUE APR 1 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS: A STRONG WAVE AND ASSOCIATED 150KT JET STREAK WILL
EJECT OUT OF A STRENGTHENING WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN TROF THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS UPPER-LEVEL FORCING WILL DRIVE A SUB-990 MB
SURFACE LOW NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST DETAILS: THE LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IS
VERY DRY AT THE MOMENT AS SHOWN BY FAIRLY ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TODAY
AND AFTERNOON RH VALUES OF 30% OR LOWER IN MANY AREAS. CLOUDS WILL
DRAMATICALLY INCREASE THIS EVENING AS STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM AND TOP-DOWN MOISTENING
OCCURS. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY BEGIN AS SNOW, BUT STRONG WAA ALOFT
WILL PRODUCE AN ELEVATED ABOVE FREEZING LAYER WHICH WILL SUPPORT A
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN, ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL HAVE THE FREEZING RAIN CHANGE TO JUST RAIN.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL SUPPORT SOME
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, AND A STRONG STORM CAN'T BE RULED OUT
GIVEN THE STRONG WIND FIELDS AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. EVEN
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED, WITH
GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE.
WILL BE POSTING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA FOR A PORTION OF THE PERIOD GIVEN THE WINTRY MIX ANTICIPATED.
THE HEAVIEST ICE POTENTIAL WILL BE IN THE INTERIOR OF THE SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD CADILLAC.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT TUE APR 1 2025
THE DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK OFF TO OUR WEST
SWEEPING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH 40S
TO LOW 50S LIKELY IN THE EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY DROPPING OFF AFTER
MIDNIGHT (THIS SHOULD HELP MELT OFF A MAJORITY OF THE ICE LEFTOVER
FROM THE HISTORIC ICE STORM). HOWEVER, IT WON'T HELP REBUILD THE
SEVERELY DAMAGED POWER GRID ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER. SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND CONTINUE TO BE VERY GUSTY (30 TO
40+ MPH). THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING WITH A STRONG
STORM OR TWO POSSIBLE, MAINLY SOUTH OF M-72. THIS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO POSE PROBLEMS FOR WEAKENED TREES AND POWER LINES.
HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED MILDER AIR IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND
THIS HOLDS INTO FRIDAY. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S, WITH SOME 50S
LIKELY SPRINKLED IN (ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO SAGINAW BAY). WESTERLY
WINDS THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG AT BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 35 OR EVEN 40 MPH (AGAIN NOT IDEAL GIVEN THE CURRENT
SITUATION IN LOTS OF AREAS).
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK BY WELL TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY BUT
IT WILL STILL BRING A CHANCE FOR MAINLY RAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-
72. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MILD 40S TO LOW 50S.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHING DROPS DOWN FROM
THE NORTH RETURNING COLDER AIR ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR A FEW RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S.
MOST NIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW FREEZING, IN SOME CASES WELL BELOW
FREEZING. THIS IS NOT IDEAL FOR THE TENS OF THOUSANDS OF PEOPLE
CURRENTLY WITHOUT COMMERCIAL HEAT OR POWER.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 751 PM EDT TUE APR 1 2025
MIXED WINTRY PRECIP RETURNS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD WI.
HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALREADY EXTENSIVE. CIGS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER
TONIGHT, AND -SN SHOULD BREAK OUT AT MBL/TVC BY 06-07Z, AND REACHING
THE OTHER SITES IN THE MORNING. SN TURNS TO RA AT MBL/TVC BY MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY; THERE MIGHT BE SOME BRIEF FZRA DURING THE TRANSITION,
MORE LIKELY AT TVC. PLN/APN MIX WITH FZRA AND RA IN THE AFTERNOON,
WHILE CIU STAYS ALL SNOW. TAFS WILL BE VFR MOST OF TONIGHT, MVFR WED
MORNING, MVFR TO IFR IN THE AFTERNOON. NOTE THAT APN/PLN CONTINUE TO
DEAL WITH POWER OUTAGES.
E TO SE WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTIER TUESDAY.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
MIZ016>018-022>024-029-030-036-098-099.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
MIZ020-021-025>028-031>035-041-042.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
MIZ086>088-095>097.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ323-341-
342-344>346.
GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ321-322.
UPDATE...JZ
SHORT TERM...PBB
LONG TERM...AJS
AVIATION...JZ
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