397
FXUS63 KAPX 221047
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
647 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS DEVELOP TONIGHT.
- TRENDING RATHER RAINY IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES
SPREAD OVER THE REST OF THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
- MAJOR TEMPERATURE CONTRAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH COOLER
50S AND LOWER 60S NORTH AND UPPER 60S TO PERHAPS 75+ SOUTH.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 216 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2025
..SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS TONIGHT
NARROW RIDGE AXIS IS BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION IN
THE WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY LIFT NE AWAY FROM MICHIGAN EARLY
THIS MORNING. RESIDUAL SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING SUBSIDENCE AND THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER
LOW LEVEL AIR. TEMPS ARE GENERALLY HOLDING IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
AFTER A FEW LINGERING LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...REMAINING LOW CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY EXIT FROM SW TO NE OUT OF OUR CWA WITH THE DEPARTING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. HOWEVER...OUR PERIOD OF SUNSHINE DURING MID TO
LATE MORNING WILL BE RELATIVELY BRIEF AS ADDITIONAL LOW/MID CLOUDS
MOVE INTO OUR CWA FROM SW TO NE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. SMALL CHANCES OF LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN.
PRECIP TYPE WILL BE MAINLY RAIN...BUT A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX
IN FROM TIME TO TIME AS TEMPS COOL INTO THE 30S AFTER SUNSET.
HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL WARM MAINLY INTO THE 50S ACROSS OUR
CWA...WITH A FEW LOW 60S NEAR SAGINAW BAY. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL
COOL BACK INTO THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 DEGREES.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 216 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2025
FORECAST DETAILS:
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE CLEARING THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING, RESULTING IN ANY LINGERING CLOUD COVER CLEARING AS AN
OCCLUDED AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY PLODS EASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTH END OF LAKE SUPERIOR. RESULT WILL BE A SHARP WARMUP ACROSS
THE REGION... WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-TO-MID 60S IN THE EASTERN
YOOP AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER (50S LAKE
HURON SHORES).
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WILL LARGELY WASH OUT NEAR COCHRANE,
ONTARIO, LEADING TO THE FRONTAL ORIENTATION BECOMING PARALLEL WITH
THE MEAN FLOW AS IT INTRUDES FROM GREEN BAY NORTHEAST INTO THE
EASTERN YOOP WEDNESDAY EVENING / NIGHT. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE IN THESE AREAS AS THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY, AND HOLDS
IN THE VICINITY OF THE STRAITS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. STILL
ANTICIPATING QUITE THE CONTRAST BETWEEN NORTH AND SOUTH AS A PRETTY
STELLAR THERMAL GRADIENT MATERIALIZES. CLOUDIER AND SHOWERY WEATHER
SEEMS LIKELY IN THE EASTERN YOOP AND THE FARTHEST NORTH COUNTIES OF
NORTHERN LOWER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS IT SEEMS LIKE A LOCK TO BE
NORTH OF THE FRONT IN THESE AREAS.
SOUTH OF THE FRONT, MORE PEEKS OF SUNSHINE AND A SHARPLY WARMER
AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE, WHICH WILL GENERALLY LEAD TO SOMEWHERE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE M-32 CORRIDOR SEEING A DRAMATIC INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES AS ONE GOES SOUTH THURSDAY... IN THE ORDER OF LOW-TO-
MID 70S (UPPER 70S IN GLADWIN, OGEMAW, AND ROSCOMMON COS?).
CERTAINLY STILL A TRICKY TEMP FORECAST, SO MORE DETAILS TO BE HAD.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THEN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MOVES INTO
THE SOUTHERN LAKES ALONG THE FRONT, FORCING THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE
REGION, BRINGING MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND PERHAPS THUNDER
ACTIVITY TO THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY EVENING.
THE FRONT LOOKS TO CLEAR SOME TIME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. SO AS IT STANDS, THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY ASIDE FROM THE EARLY
HOURS OF SATURDAY, ALBEIT WITH COOLER TEMPS... HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE
50S, INCREASING TO MID 50S (NORTH) TO MID-UPPER 60S SOUTH FOR SUNDAY
UNDER SUNNIER SKIES. LONG TERM GUIDANCE IS BULLISH ON ANOTHER SYSTEM
WORKING INTO THE LAKES TO START NEXT WEEK, WHICH SHOULD PULL IN
ANOTHER INTRUSION OF WARMER AIR (POSSIBLY ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 70S FOR SOME MONDAY).
NORMAL HIGHS: 53-63, NORMAL LOWS: 31-40
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 645 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2025
A WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN TODAY
AND TONIGHT...RESULTING IN INCREASING LOW/MID CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND SMALL CHANCES OF LIGHT SHOWERS TONIGHT. IN THE
MEANTIME...LINGERING LOW CLOUDS/MVFR CIGS WILL EXIT OUR CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING. PREVAILING CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LHZ345-
346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LHZ347>349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ323-
341-342-344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321-
322.
SHORT TERM...MLR
LONG TERM...HAD
AVIATION...MLR
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