420
FXUS63 KAPX 230246
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1046 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SOME LIGHT SHOWER CHANCES TONIGHT...PERHAPS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS WELL?
- WARMING TREND THROUGH LATE WEEK.
- SHOWERS POSSIBLE THURSDAY THEN SHOWERS LIKELY FRIDAY.
- EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 17Z MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A NARROW RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY NORTHWARD THROUGH LAKE
SUPERIOR. COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT RUNS FROM MINNESOTA INTO EASTERN
IOWA...TRIPLE POINT NEAR THE TWIN CITIES AND A STUB OF A WARM FRONT
ACROSS SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN/NORTHERN ILLINOIS. GOOD DEAL OF SUN
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THOUGH MID CLOUDS AND
SOME LIGHT RADAR RETURNS MAKING THEIR WAY ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. SOME
SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN HEADING INTO
SOUTHWEST LOWER.
LOW AMPLITUDE/MAINLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH AN ELONGATED LATENT PV ANOMALY THAT EXTENDS FROM
MONTANA EAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED
VORTICITY CENTERS. COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE FOR THE MOST PART BUT THERE ARE HINTS OF A
BOUNDARY LAYING OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN FOR WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND LEAN INTO THE
UPPER LAKES LATER WEDNESDAY.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
SOME LIGHT SHOWER CHANCES TONIGHT...PERHAPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AS WELL?: PROBABLY NOT MUCH FOR SURE AS LOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN DRY...AND BETTER INSTABILITY ALONG LOW LEVEL THETA-E
RIDGE POKING NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS LOOKS TO BE
FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. BAND OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE IS RELATIVELY SHALLOW AS WELL. AKIN TO LAST NIGHT
EXPECT CLOUDS TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...THOUGH SOME MAY STILL BE LINGERING ACROSS FAR EASTERN
UPPER/NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN TOMORROW MORNING.
WEDNESDAY WILL START OUT WITH SOME SUN...WHILE KEEPING AN EYE ON
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THE WEST AND SOUTH. DURING THE AFTERNOON
NEXT COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO WISCONSIN/WESTERN IOWA WILL FOCUS LOW
LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN. SO THE POTENTIAL IS
THERE FOR SOME POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE REMNANTS TO PUSH INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2025
WARMER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THURSDAY THEN AFTER A BRIEF PAUSE IN
THE UPWARD TREND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, EVEN WARMER READINGS ARE
POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK. SPRING USUALLY TAKES A WHILE TO GET UP
HERE BUT THAT'S WHAT MAKES IT SO MUCH SWEETER WHEN IT FINALLY SETS
IN. ALONG WITH THE SPRING WARMTH THERE WILL BE VARIOUS CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
LEAD TO SHOWER CHANCES THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY ON FRIDAY. AREAS
NORTH OF THIS FRONT, MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER, WILL NOT BE NEARLY
AS WARM AS AREAS TO THE SOUTH. THE WEEKEND STILL LOOKS RAIN FREE
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THEN RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN EARLY
NEXT WEEK DUE TO ANOTHER STRUNG OUT FRONT AND POSSIBLE SURFACE LOW
MOVING BY TO THE NORTH. DEPENDING UPON THE EXTENT OF ACTUAL CLOUD
COVER AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, IT COULD HEAT UP TO WELL INTO THE 70S
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1042 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2025
PREDOMINANTLY VFR AVIATION WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MICHIGAN TERMINALS THROUGH THE 06Z TAF VALID TIME.
A FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT THE
COVERAGE SHOULD BE TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. MOST OF
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE QUIET WITH HIGH-BASED CIGS. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING HOURS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. STILL
KEEPING MENTION LIMITED TO VCSH AS THERE MAY BE SOME CONVECTIVE
CONTAMINATION IN THE MODEL OUTPUT, BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE WATCHED.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...AJS
AVIATION...PBB
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