082
FXUS63 KAPX 231728
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
128 PM EDT WED APR 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT.
- OCCASIONAL RAINY PERIODS CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
- MAJOR TEMPERATURE CONTRAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH COOLER
50S AND LOWER 60S NORTH AND UPPER 60S TO PERHAPS 75+ SOUTH.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT WED APR 23 2025
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MINNESOTA/CANADIAN
BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THE ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT
STRETCHING SE THRU WISCONSIN AND A WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO FAR
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGIONAL RADARS ARE
RATHER QUIET ATTM...WITH JUST SOME SPORATIC SHOWER ACTIVITY DOTTING
THE AREA. TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
WX BECOMES INCREASINGLY ACTIVE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW
DRIVES EAST THRU THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA AND LAKE SUPERIOR...
REACHING SE ONTARIO BY LATE TONIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE WILL LIFT UP AND
OVER THE WARM FRONT AS IT TOO LIFTS INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. AFTER A
RATHER QUIET/UNEVENTFUL MORNING...CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON THRU TONIGHT AS THAT DEEP MOISTURE GRADUALLY
SPREADS NORTHEASTWARD INTO MICHIGAN.
THE BIG QUESTION IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER. MODELS HAVE HAD A
DIFFICULT TIME RESOLVING POTENTIAL INSTABILITY FOR TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. ONGOING WAA WILL LIKELY BOOST TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SURFACE DWPTS RISING INTO THE 50S. STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES DURING LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING COMBINED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ALONG WITH STEADILY INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SUGGESTS A GOOD CHANCE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDER...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. LATEST NAM SHOWS ONLY MODEST
INSTABILITY (MUCAPES OF 500-750 J/KG) DEVELOPING ACROSS MAINLY OUR
SOUTHERN CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHICH MAY BE A LIMITING
FACTOR REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORM DEVELOPMENT. WHILE
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED (SPC DAY 1 GENERAL THUNDER)...A FEW
STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION DURING LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MORE MILD TODAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND IN THE MID
60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
TEMPS WILL BE COOLER ALONG OUR LAKE HURON SHORELINE THANKS TO
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL COOL INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 30S ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND INTO THE 40S ACROSS
ALL OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT WED APR 23 2025
FORECAST DETAILS:
STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT OVER FAR NORTHERN LOWER ON
THURSDAY, RESULTING IN A BIT OF A WICKED TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS
THE REGION, AS AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT HOLD CLOUDIER AND
COOLER WHILE THE FAR SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE CWA GET TO 70 TO 75+.
ANTICIPATING SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS / DRIZZLE THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SURGES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY,
FORCING THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION (AS A COLD FRONT), BRINGING A
ROUND OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AMID BREEZY TO
PERHAPS WINDY CONDITIONS (ESP. FRIDAY). WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW
ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY ALIGN FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, BUT THE DETAILS ARE MURKY AT THIS
JUNCTURE.
LATEST GUIDANCE IS BULLISH ON HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES REALLY
FLEXING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH SOME AGGRESSIVE CLEARING,
YIELDING A DRY WEEKEND. SATURDAY TEMPS WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS 55-
65 SATURDAY AND 60-70 SUNDAY (COOLER LAKESHORES). THE WARMUP TREND
CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK... LATEST GUIDANCE WANTS TO BRING ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE TO OUR WEST TO START NEXT WEEK, WHICH SHOULD SEND
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S...PERHAPS EVEN TOUCHING / EXCEEDING
80, ESPECIALLY SOUTH... IF (AND IT'S A BIG IF) WE CAN SNAG PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND FAVORABLE FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONS. THIS
SYSTEM SEEMS FAVORABLE TO FORCE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDER
ACTIVITY AS WELL, WHICH IS CERTAINLY WELCOME NEWS FOR KEEPING PRE-
GREENUP FIRE DANGER IN CHECK.
NORMAL HIGHS: 53-63, NORMAL LOWS: 31-40
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT WED APR 23 2025
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
THIS AFTERNOON, CROSSING THE REGION TONIGHT. PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 18-23Z AT
MBL/TVC AND 22-03Z AT APN, WHICH MAY BRIEFLY RESULT IN MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY BRIEFLY HEAVIER RAIN. AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM
REMAINS POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH CHANCES ARE
LARGELY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. INCREASING
PROBABILITIES (50-80%) FOR MVFR CIGS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH LOWER PROBS (30-50%) FOR A DROP TO
IFR. SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY AM MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF IFR/MVFR VSBYS,
PARTICULARLY AT CIU, PLN, TVC, AND MBL.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MLR
LONG TERM...HAD
AVIATION...MJG
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