771
FXUS63 KAPX 240338
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1138 PM EDT WED APR 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
- NOTICEABLE TEMPERATURES GRADIENT THURSDAY WITH COOLER 50S AND
LOWER 60S NORTH AND UPPER 60S TO PERHAPS 75+ SOUTH.
- OCCASIONAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
- DECENT TEMPERATURE CONTRAST AGAIN FRIDAY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TO HIGH 50S FOR AREAS NORTH, AND 60S
TO PERHAPS 70S FOR AREAS SOUTH.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 946 PM EDT WED APR 23 2025
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN LK SUPERIOR WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD
TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM DRAGS A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN MI LATE
TONIGHT. JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, SHOWERS AND SOME T-STORMS
HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING THIS EVENING OVER CENTRAL UPPER MI AND
EASTERN SUPERIOR. THIS IS AT THE NOSE OF A WEAK-ISH UNSTABLE
PLUME, WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 300-400J/KG. THE MOST WIDESPREAD
PRECIP AND HEAVIEST QPF SHOULD SCOOT BY JUST TO THE NORTH OF
EASTERN UPPER, BUT CHIP/MACK COS WILL SEE A SUBSTANTIAL GLANCING
BLOW AT A MINIMUM. POPS HAVE BEEN BOOSTED IN EASTERN UPPER MI,
THOUGH THE TAIL END OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DEPART BEFORE THE LATE
OVERNIGHT.
LESS VIGOROUS AND LESS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS SEEN ON AN E-W
AXIS OVER CENTRAL WI. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MAKES FURTHER
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS INTO NORTHERN MI LATE TONIGHT, AND THE WEAK
INSTABILITY PLUME MOVES OVERHEAD. LINGERING SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF
THE DECK INTERACTS IN PART WITH THAT BOUNDARY, SUPPORTING AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND T-STORMS HERE OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN
THE SOUTH. A VAGUELY STRONGER STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE, MAINLY
IN NW LOWER MI, WITH MAINLY A SMALL HAIL THREAT. BUT ANY
LEFTOVER MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT HAS BEEN BANISHED FROM ALL OF MI
BY SPC.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 246 PM EDT WED APR 23 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: BROAD AREA OF WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SITS
UPSTREAM THIS AFTERNOON -- CENTERED NEAR THE MN/ONTARIO BORDER, BUT
STRETCHED SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE UPPER AND MID-MS VALLEY. THIS
SYSTEM'S WARM FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHED OVER THE CENTRAL U.P.
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. TRAILING
COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHWEST WI/IA. MORNING CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN IL
AND IA HAS DECAYED WITH TIME, BUT NOW MAKING SOME PROGRESS INTO
WESTERN LOWER MI. CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT OVER NORTHERN MI WILL AID IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER
AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED NEAR THE QUEBEC/ONTARIO BORDER THURSDAY
MORNING WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TRAILING BOUNDARY EFFECTIVELY
STALLING OVERHEAD FOR THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO AN IMPRESSIVE
TEMPERATURES GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND ADDITIONAL LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/DRIZZLE, PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS NEAR AND NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY.
FORECAST DETAILS: LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS EARLIER TODAY, ALTHOUGH INCREASED MID-HIGH CLOUD HAS
BEEN THE RULE ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTION AND DECAYING
CONVECTION ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INITIAL FOCUS FOR SHOWER/
STORM CHANCES REVOLVE AROUND INCOMING LINGERING CONVECTION WORKING
ITS WAY INTO AREAS WEST OF GRAND TRAVERSE BAY. LATEST NEAR-TERM
TRENDS SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY MAKES SLOW INLAND PROGRESS WHILE
CONTINUING TO DECAY OVER THE NEXT HANDFUL OF HOURS. NON-ZERO THUNDER
CHANCES WITH A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED OVER NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN OVER THE LAST HOUR AS STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AID
TO PROMOTE 200-400 J/KG OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY BUILDING ACROSS
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-60 KTS
SUGGESTS THAT IF ANY STORMS AREA ABLE TO MATERIALIZE (LARGELY
INHIBITED BY A LACK OF MEANINGFUL LIFT), AN INSTANCE OR TWO OF LARGE
HAIL CAN'T ENTIRELY BE RULED OUT. STRONG-SEVERE STORMS AREN'T THE
EXPECTATION BY ANY MEANS, BUT SIMPLY NOT CLOSE ENOUGH TO ZERO TO NOT
MENTION.
A FEW ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE EVENING, ALTHOUGH IT'S EXPECTED THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA REMAINS DRY. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT, HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AGAIN FOCUSES NEAR AND SOUTH OF M-72
BETWEEN 06-12Z. SOME SIGNALS THAT SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY FOLDS
INTO THE AREA THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME WITH AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL
FOR MORE NUMEROUS RUMBLES OF THUNDER AND ADDITIONAL LOW-END STRONG
STORM CHANCES. SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AS
WELL.
FOR THURSDAY, A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE SITUATED
OVER NORTHERN LOWER MI SHOULD RESULT IN A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE TEMP
GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
50S FAR NORTH TO THE LOW-MID 70S FAR SOUTH. SOME LOW POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER AND/OR PATCHY DRIZZLE NEAR AND NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY, BUT NOT SOLD ON JUST HOW WIDESPREAD ANY DRIZZLE
WILL BE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 246 PM EDT WED APR 23 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE SHUNTED NORTHWARD AS A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD. AS THE LOW PROGRESSES ACROSS THE MITT, PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL TIGHTEN BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM
THE NORTHWEST AND THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW, TO SUPPORT PRETTY BREEZY
CONDITIONS FRIDAY/ FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
THUNDER CHANCES. GUIDANCE IS STILL NOT OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT ANY
SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, BUT IS STILL SOMETHING TO
WATCH IN THE COMING CYCLES.
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND MAKING FOR BEAUTIFUL SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. SATURDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECASTED TO BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S AND
THEN TREND WARMER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S (COOLER BY
THE LAKESHORES). WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK
WITH FORECASTED HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 70S, TO EVEN PERHAPS THE LOW
80S FOR SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS SET TO IMPACT THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1138 PM EDT WED APR 23 2025
ALL SITES VFR PRESENTLY. LOWER CIGS WILL DEVELOP VERY LATE
TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS. EXPECT CIU/PLN TO BOTH
BE MVFR FOR PART OF THE LATE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
CIU AND MBL ARE THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE SOME LIGHT FOG LATE
TONIGHT (MVFR VSBYS).
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS INTO EARLY THURSDAY, BECOMING NW DURING
THE DAY.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
UPDATE...JZ
SHORT TERM...MJG
LONG TERM...NSC
AVIATION...JZ
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