418
FXUS63 KAPX 240731
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
331 AM EDT THU APR 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD TODAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT.
- RAIN FRIDAY.
- ACTIVE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT THU APR 24 2025
..MILD WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT
LOW PRESSURE AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MAKE
THEIR WAY THRU NORTHERN MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...A WEAK CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WHICH IMPACTED EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN LAST NIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING HAS PUSHED EAST OF OUR
AREA...LEAVING ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS IN ITS WAKE FOR NOW.
COLD FRONT WILL DROP THRU NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING
AND THEN STALL OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN FOR THE REST OF THE DAY
AND INTO THIS EVENING AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
UPSTREAM ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. LACK OF DESCENT LIFT...WEAK WIND
FIELDS...LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE ANY
REAL CHANCES OF PRECIP DEVELOPMENT TODAY INTO THIS EVENING DESPITE
THE PRESENCE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WILL LIKELY NEED TO WAIT UNTIL
LATER TONIGHT FOR INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AS THE DEVELOPING
UPSTREAM SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT LIFT INTO WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN MICHIGAN.
IN THE MEANTIME...THERE REMAINS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN CWA EARLY
THIS MORNING AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS THRU NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SCT/BKN CLOUDS AND MILD TEMPS TODAY
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 50S ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND
FAR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TO THE LOW TO MID 70S IN OUR FAR
SOUTHERN CWA. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL COOL BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND INTO THE 40S ACROSS NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN.
THIS IS MY FINAL SHIFT AND FINAL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION OF MY
CAREER. IT HAS BEEN A TRUE HONOR AND PRIVILEGE TO SERVE THE PEOPLE
OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN FOR 3 DECADES. THANK YOU...AND TAKE CARE! -MLR-
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT THU APR 24 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:
SUBTLE WARM/MOIST ADVECTION INTO THE GREAT LAKES...ALONG/AHEAD OF A
BOUNDARY GETTING STRUNG OUT FROM WESTERN COLORADO TO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES AS OF 3Z. FADING UPPER LOW JUST TO OUR NORTH WITH BEST THERMAL
GRADIENT/WIND FIELDS...AND HERE IS WHERE BEST CONVECTION IN THE
REGION IS YET FOUND. MUCH MORE COMPLEX UPSTREAM OVER THE MS VALLEY
AND PLAINS...WITH CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES ALONG AFOREMENTIONED STRUNG-
OUT-BOUNDARY; INCLUDING A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX AT THE CRUX OF THIS AND
ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER WEST TX/KS...WHERE MOISTURE IS MORE ABUNDANT,
AND STABILITY ALOFT IS WEAKER. HERE IN THE GREAT LAKES...EASTERLY
FLOW KEEPING THINGS A BIT COOLER/DRIER THAN POINTS WESTWARD... WITH
DEWPOINTS STILL HANGING IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S OVER NE LOWER;
40S-50S CREEPING UP INTO SE WI AND PARTS OF THE LAKE MI COAST
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...ON THE GRANDER
SCALE...LONGWAVE PATTERN BECOMING A LITTLE MORE TROUGH-WEST, RIDGE-
EAST OVER THE CONTINENT AS A SERIES OF TROUGHS DIGS INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA/WEST COAST...WITH SPLIT POLAR VORTEX HANGING OUT ALONG THE
PERIMETER OF THE ARCTIC CIRCLE IN CANADA AND NORTH OF SCANDINAVIA.
EXPECTING THE CURRENT BOUNDARY TO SLOWLY TRY TO SAG SOUTH
TODAY...STALLING OUT AND EVENTUALLY BUCKLING BACK NORTHWARD TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES SOUTHERN CANADA,
AIDING IN PRESSURE FALLS FROM LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE WESTERN
PLAINS UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES...WHICH SHOULD BRING ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY TO THE REGION. A BIT BREEZY ON THE BACKSIDE...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST GOING INTO SATURDAY...WITH ONLY A
BRIEF PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER BEFORE RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS ACROSS
THE MS VALLEY TO START NEXT WEEK...AT THE SAME TIME THAT A POTENT
UPPER LOW TRACKS INTO THE WESTERN US. EXPECTED RESULT WILL BE
DEVELOPMENT OF A POTENT SYSTEM SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTH/CENTRAL US
EARLY NEXT WEEK...KEEPING THINGS ACTIVE FOR MOST OF THE END OF
APRIL FOR THE MIDWEST.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
RAIN FRIDAY...THERMAL PROFILE LOOKS A BIT TOO STABLE ALOFT FOR
MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDER, THOUGH CAN'T TOTALLY RULE OUT A RUMBLE
OR TWO HERE OR THERE, ESPECIALLY IF WE END UP WARMER THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED. DO, HOWEVER, THINK IT WILL BE QUITE A RAINY/DREARY DAY,
STARTING IN THE NW AND WORKING ITS WAY SE WITH TIME THROUGH THE DAY.
DECENT PWATS COMBINED WITH POTENTIAL FOR GOOD SYNOPTIC FORCING AND
SOME SUBTLE SIGNALS FOR WEAKER STABILITY SUGGEST IT COULD BE AGAIN
RATHER WET...WITH MOST BULLISH GUIDANCE PUSHING TOWARD 12-HR
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 0.5-1" ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. QUESTION AT THIS
POINT BECOMES, HOW FAR NORTH/SOUTH WILL THIS BOUNDARY END UP
STALLING, AND WHERE/HOW STRONG WILL A LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY BECOME? EVEN A SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED LOW COULD GIVE
POTENTIAL TO BUMP THE BOUNDARY BACK NORTHWARD A LITTLE MORE, WHICH
COULD LEAVE THINGS A BIT WARMER THAN EXPECTED, AS WELL AS SHIFT THE
FOCUS FOR THE BETTER RAINS TO OUR WEST OR PERHAPS MORE OVERHEAD
(WOULD PUT THE BEST THETA-E ADVECTION OVER US RATHER THAN TO OUR
SE). ADDITIONALLY...DO THINK THERE MAY BE SOME CONCERN REGARDING
E/NE FLOW OUT OF THE CANADA POTENTIALLY KEEPING COOLER/DRIER AIR IN
THE REGION LONGER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED, WHICH COULD DIAL BACK
RAINFALL POTENTIAL. EVEN SO, THINK THAT WITH THE RAIN/CLOUDS AND
POTENTIALLY STRONG INVERSION OVERHEAD, THINK THINGS WILL REMAIN ON
THE COOL SIDE FOR MOST...WITH WARMEST TEMPS MOST LIKELY NEAR SAGINAW
BAY. MAY NOT BE ENTIRELY IMPOSSIBLE TO RULE OUT A ROGUE SNOWFLAKE
FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS WE WILL END UP MUCH COOLER,
THOUGH VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE SNOWFLAKE IDEA ATTM.
ACTIVE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK...INCREASING RETURN FLOW SHOULD BRING
BACK CHANCES FOR RAIN AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THINK
SOME THUNDER IS POSSIBLE, NOTING THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK STABILITY
ALOFT...THOUGH AT LEAST INITIALLY, IT MAY BE PRETTY TAME. LESS
CERTAINTY ON TAME-NESS AS WE GO INTO MONDAY NIGHT AT TUESDAY, AS
THERE ARE CURRENTLY A LOT OF DETAILS TO SORT OUT BETWEEN NOW AND
THEN...BUT DOES APPEAR SOME BETTER WIND FIELDS WILL BE IN PLAY TO
SUPPORT POTENTIAL ORGANIZATION SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MIDWEST EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WHICH COULD COMBINE WITH BLOSSOMING INSTABILITY
(ASSUMING THE LOW DOESN'T TAKE A MORE SOUTH-EAST TRACK AT THE LAST
MINUTE) AND INCOMING SURFACE BOUNDARY/PVA TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF
POTENTIAL STRONGER STORMS, ESP FURTHER SOUTH. STAY TUNED. CURRENTLY
APPEARS WE COULD GET A LITTLE TOASTY FOR LATE APRIL IF WE GET DEEP
ENOUGH INTO THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM...AND THIS IDEA COULD
SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE BASED STORMS IF IT COMES TO
FRUITION...BUT LIKE I SAID, STAY TUNED; DETAILS ARE DEFINITELY NOT
CLEAR YET, BUT CERTAINLY WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON AS WE GO FORWARD.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1138 PM EDT WED APR 23 2025
ALL SITES VFR PRESENTLY. LOWER CIGS WILL DEVELOP VERY LATE
TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS. EXPECT CIU/PLN TO BOTH
BE MVFR FOR PART OF THE LATE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
CIU AND MBL ARE THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE SOME LIGHT FOG LATE
TONIGHT (MVFR VSBYS).
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS INTO EARLY THURSDAY, BECOMING NW DURING
THE DAY.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MLR
LONG TERM...FEF
AVIATION...JZ
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