415
FXUS63 KAPX 250132
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
932 PM EDT THU APR 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASING RAIN CHANCES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
- QUIET WEATHER THIS WEEKEND.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 928 PM EDT THU APR 24 2025
OTHER THAN A FEW SPRINKLES, A PRETTY UNEVENTFUL EVENING
WEATHERWISE ACROSS THE NORTHWOODS. STILL THINKING THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH TIME TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF THE BIG BRIDGE WHERE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
WILL BE MAXIMIZED. ANY RAIN AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE
40S.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT THU APR 24 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, WEAK LOW PRESSURE
THAT CROSSED BY TO OUR NORTH LAST NIGHT NOW SITS WELL DOWNSTREAM
OVER QUEBEC. LINGERING STALLED BOUNDARY IS STRETCHED DOWNSTATE
WESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ULTIMATELY
BECOME THE FOCUS FOR UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE TO RIDE ALONG LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL WET WEATHER TO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN.
FORECAST DETAILS: MORNING CONVECTION NEAR THE M-55 CORRIDOR IS NOW
WELL IN THE REAR VIEW MIRROR. THAT SAID, A FEW ADDITIONAL ROGUE
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
(ESPECIALLY OVER THE TIP OF THE MITT), BUT CERTAINLY NOT
EXPECTED TO BE LONG-LASTING WITH THE VAST MAJORITY OF NORTHERN
MI REMAINING DRY.
FOCUS TRANSITIONS TO LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS AFOREMENTIONED
LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OVER THE PLAINS AND QUICKLY TRACKS EAST
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. SOME ISENTROPICALLY
DRIVEN SHOWER CHANCES RETURN AS EARLY AS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT, MAINLY
NORTH OF M-32 ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MITT AND EASTERN U.P. ANY OF
THIS SHOWER DEVELOPMENT GRADUALLY SLIDES NORTH THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING WITH WHAT SHOULD BE QUITE A BIT OF DRY TIME DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH NORTHERN LOWER. ADDITIONAL, MORE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS, OR EVEN STEADY RAIN ARRIVES FROM WEST TO EAST MIDDAY ONWARD
BEFORE CLEARING LATE DAY/EARLY EVENING. QPF AMOUNTS LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY RANGING FROM UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH NEAR
SAGINAW BAY TO 0.20-0.50" OVER THE TIP OF THE MITT AND EASTERN
U.P.
LOWS TONIGHT FALLING INTO THE 30S FAR NORTH AND THROUGH THE LOW-MID
40S ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER. A FAIRLY NOTABLE NORTH-SOUTH TEMP
GRADIENT EXPECTED AGAIN FRIDAY WITH 40S NORTH AND LOW-MID 60S FAR
SOUTH/NEAR SAGINAW BAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT THU APR 24 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE PUSHED NORTHWARD AS A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY. AS THE
LOW PROGRESSES ACROSS THE MITT, PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL TIGHTEN
BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW, TO SUPPORT BREEZY CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT AS
WELL AS WIDESPREAD RAIN AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO,
ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-75. AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THIS WEEKEND PROMOTING CLEARING SKIES
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. SATURDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED
TO BE IN THE 50S, THEN TRENDING WARMER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
TO LOW 70S (COOLER BY THE LAKESHORES). WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH FORECASTED HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 70S, TO
EVEN PERHAPS THE LOW 80S FOR SOUTHERN LOCATIONS, DEPENDING ON WHERE
SURFACE FEATURES SET-UP... AS ANOTHER SYSTEM IS SET TO IMPACT THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES--
SPC HAS SURROUNDING AREAS IN A 15% TO 29% PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, WITH GUIDANCE NOT OVERLY
EXCITED ABOUT SEVERE STORMS ACROSS OUR AREA, STAY TUNED!
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 656 PM EDT THU APR 24 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH JUST SOME PASSING HIGH AND
MID LEVEL CLOUDS. CLOUD DECK LOWERS AND THICKENS FRIDAY MORNING,
WITH MVFR TO IFR CIGS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY. SHOWERS AND
MIST WILL ACCOMPANY THIS LOWERING CLOUD DECK, ALTHOUGH SHOWER
INTENSITY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING, WITH WINDS TRENDING A BIT MORE GUSTY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
UPDATE...MSB
SHORT TERM...MJG
LONG TERM...NSC
AVIATION...MSB
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