341
FXUS63 KAPX 280328
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1128 PM EDT SUN APR 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH DRY CONDITIONS NEAR THE
SURFACE MONDAY AFTERNOON RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND WIDESPREAD BREEZY/GUSTY
CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 930 PM EDT SUN APR 27 2025
ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES NEEDED TO THE INHERITED FORECAST. MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING WITHIN BEGINNING STAGES OF ELEVATED MOISTURE ADVECTION.
SEVERAL LIGHT RETURNS NOTED ON LOCAL RADAR, BUT DEEP LAYER
SURFACE TO H7 CENTERED DRY WEDGE NOTED ON LOCAL 00Z SOUNDING
LIKELY PREVENTING ANY RAIN FROM ACTUALLY REACHING THE SURFACE
(PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE?). NOT MUCH CHANGE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH JUST THOSE PASSING UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS.
DEFINITELY A MILDER NIGHT THAN LAST, WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT SUN APR 27 2025
FORECAST SYNOPSIS:
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY MORNING AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT, THE AIR DRY, AND TEMPERATURES
MILD. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FILL IN THIS EVENING,
HOWEVER SKIES WILL TREND MORE CLEAR TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOL BUT NOT AS COLD AS THIS PAST MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
SOUTHERLY MONDAY MORNING AS A SURFACE CYCLONE MOVES OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TOWARDS THE MID
ATLANTIC. WIND GUSTS WILL BEGIN AROUND MIDDAY, AND IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WINDS WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 MPH. DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WILL PERSIST, LEADING TO
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FOR ALL INTERIOR LOCATIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN LOWER PENISULA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. INTERIOR PARTS OF NE
LOWER WILL SEE PROLONGED ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THROUGH MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN OVER EASTERN UPPER AND LK MI
COASTAL AREAS LATE AFTERNOON, WITH SPOTS OVER NE LOWER LIKELY NOT
SEEING WETTING RAINS UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
FORECAST CONCERNS:
THIS PAST FRONTAL PUSH EXTENDED A VERY DRY AIRMASS AS FAR SOUTH AS
TN/NC IN THE LOWER LEVELS (SFC TO ~4KFT). THAT DRIER LL AIR WILL
LOOP BACK NORTHWARD TOWARDS MI UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE, YIELDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN DRY AIR PERSISTING LONGER THAN SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
FOR MONDAY. SOME MOISTURE COULD SNAKE NORTHWARD AROUND THE SOUTHERN
PARTS OF LK MI AND RAISE HUMIDITY AMOUNTS OVER NW LOWER A LITTLE
QUICKER. WITH THAT SAID, MIXING HEIGHTS WILL RISE IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS TO AROUND 4-5KFT AND COULD MIX ANY OF THAT MOISTURE OUT DURING
THE EARLY AND MID AFTERNOON HOURS.
DUE TO THIS HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS WITH STRENGTHENING
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS, ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER ALL INTERIOR LOCATIONS OF NORTHERN LOWER. NE LOWER
WILL SEE THE LONGEST DURATION OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS DUE MOISTURE
ADVECTION COMING FROM THE WEST.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT SUN APR 27 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE PLAINS, PROGRESSES NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MIDWEST, AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS UPSTREAM
TROUGHING APPROACHES THE AREA TUESDAY/ TUESDAY NIGHT. RESULTANT
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO DEEPEN AND TRACK THROUGH WISCONSIN AND
THE WESTERN U.P., BRINGING SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES TO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A STRONG MID-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL ALSO
MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE UPPER MIDWEST
MONDAY SUPPORTING THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS-- SPC
CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE AREAS WEST OF I-75 IN A 15% TO 29%
PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
ADVECT HIGH THETA-E VALUES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND INTO
PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. AS A RESULT, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
DISPLAY A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FOR THE AREA WITH CLIMATOLOGICALLY
HIGH PWAT VALUES... A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN DOES LOOK TO TAKE HOLD, SO
THIS SHOULD HELP TO SHUNT MOISTURE EASTWARD MORE QUICKLY,
POTENTIALLY LIMITING THE TIMEFRAME FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL ACROSS THE
NORTHWOODS. FOR NOW, MODERATE TO HEAVIER PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO
FOCUS ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MITT AND THE EASTERN U.P. MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE AS THE ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT TO THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW TRACKS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY.
BREEZY/ GUSTY CONDITIONS FROM TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL
CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS WINDS TURN TO THE WEST AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT (GUSTS 35-40+ MPH POSSIBLE)...
DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO CONTINUE TO WATCH IN THE COMING FORECAST
CYCLES AS A WIND HEADLINE FOR SOME PORTIONS OF THE REGION MAY BE
NEEDED, ESPECIALLY LOOKING AT AREAS ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER INTO NEXT WEEK WITH FORECASTED HIGHS
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S, TO EVEN PERHAPS THE LOW 80S FOR SOUTHERN
LOCATIONS. BY MID-WEEK, UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL INFLUENCE THE
REGION, BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES (50S AND 60S) ACROSS THE
NORTHWOODS TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1125 PM EDT SUN APR 27 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME INDICATION A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY MAKE A RUN AT WESTERN TAF LOCATIONS THIS
EVENING. TRENDS ARE DEFINITELY SLOWER WITH THIS IDEA, PERHAPS
NOT IMPACTING THE REGION UNTIL AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD ENDS.
INCREASINGLY GUSTY WINDS TODAY, WITH WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 30
KNOTS AT TIMES THIS EVENING. DESPITE THESE GUSTY WINDS, AN
EXCEEDINGLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD WIND
SHEAR THIS EVENING.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
UPDATE...MSB
SHORT TERM...ELD
LONG TERM...FEF/NSC
AVIATION...MSB
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