184
FXUS63 KAPX 281046
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
646 AM EDT MON APR 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER (AT A MINIMUM) TODAY
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND WIDESPREAD BREEZY/GUSTY
CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT MON APR 28 2025
PATTERN/SYNOPSIS: HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING EAST FROM LAKES
ERIE/ONTARIO. THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ENE/NE FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, CROSSING LK SUPERIOR THIS EVENING ON THE WAY
TOWARD THE TIP OF JAMES BAY. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL ONLY
GET DRAGGED INTO EASTERN UPPER MI BY 12Z TUESDAY. RETURN FLOW
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT, UP UNTIL COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT/TUESDAY.
FORECAST: A LOT GOING ON. FIRE WX FIRST. STRONG SURFACE HEATING
WILL BE REALIZED UNTIL MIDDAY, WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS
INCREASING W TO E DURING THE AFTERNOON. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND DEEP MIXING WILL INCREASE WINDS AS THE DAY
PROCEEDS. GUSTS TO 25-30MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE DEW
POINTS WILL START TO CLIMB IN THE AFTERNOON, AS MOIST ADVECTION
WINS OUT OVER MIXING, AND AS CLOUD COVER LIMITS SAID MIXING. BUT
DEW POINTS AND RH VALUES WILL BE QUITE LOW TODAY, WITH
INCREASING WINDS. FAVORED GUIDANCE IN THESE SCENARIOS (NBM10PCT
FOR DRY DEW POINTS, BCCONSHORT FOR WARMER TEMPS) GETS NE LOWER
MI TO MARGINAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS TODAY (MIN RH AT 25%). NW
LOWER, WHICH MOISTENS AND CLOUDS UP A LITTLE FASTER, IS 25-30%.
(THIS IS EXCEPTING LOCAL DOWNSLOPING LOCALES LIKE TVC, WHICH
WILL GO SLIGHTLY LOWER.)
INITIAL FIRE WX FORECASTS THIS MORNING WILL GO OUT WITH ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER WORDING, AS WAS AGREED TO IN DISCUSSIONS WITH
USFS/DNR YESTERDAY. BUT A STRONGER RESPONSE MAY NEED TO BE
CONSIDERED.
RETURN OF RICH BL MOISTURE WILL TAKE PLACE WEST OF LAKE MI
TODAY. WE DON'T SEE APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY HERE DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS UNTIL VERY LATE, WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET STARTS TO
DEVELOP AND VEER, ALLOWING A BIT OF A TAP OFF OF WI. WEAK
ELEVATED INSTABILITY, ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG, COULD
ADVECT OVER AND ACROSS THE LAKE. INCOMING DECAYING CONVECTION
BECOMES MORE LIKELY BY THEN. AFTER LITTLE/NO PRECIP THRU EARLY
AFTERNOON, POPS DO GRADUALLY INCREASE NW OF A MBL-GLR-ROGERS
LINE THRU EARLY EVENING. THIS IS JUST RESIDUAL SHOWERS (NO
THUNDER THRU 00Z), WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN WESTERN CHIP/MACK
COS.
1KM WINDS RAMP UP TO 55-65KT LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT, SW IN THE
EVENING AND WSW OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL TRANSPORT A DRASTICALLY
DIFFERENT AIRMASS INTO THE REGION...JUST ALOFT. MUCAPE VALUES
SOMEWHAT IN EXCESS OF 1K G/KG OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA IN
THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL
NOT BE OBVIOUSLY PRESENT, BUT STABILITY WILL BECOME WEAKER
LATE, WHEN SURFACE DEW POINTS CLIMB INTO AND THRU THE 50S.
CONVECTION WILL BECOME NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD TONIGHT, IN
EASTERN UPPER, NW AND N CENTRAL LOWER MI. GIVEN THE PROMINENT
WIND FIELDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE, THERE IS CERTAINLY SOME
OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTION THAT MOVES IN FROM UPSTREAM TONIGHT
TO POSE WIND/HAIL THREATS IN PARTICULAR (AND IN THAT ORDER). A
TORNADO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION EITHER. LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR IS MOST SUBSTANTIAL EARLY TONIGHT, WHEN INSTABILITY IS
JUST ARRIVING. WIND FIELDS ARE MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL OVERNIGHT.
SYNOPTIC WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO 30-35MPH TONIGHT,
REFLECTING THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MUCH STRONGER WINDS
JUST OFF THE SURFACE. STABILITY FACTORS LOOK TO PRECLUDE US
MIXING DOWN MORE THAN THAT.
MAX TEMPS TODAY IN THE 60S IN EASTERN UPPER MI, NEAR 70F TO THE
LOWER 70S IN MOST OF NORTHERN LOWER MI (TVC PROBABLY TAKES A RUN
AT 75F). TEMPS WILL RELATIVELY STEADY TONIGHT, 60S IN NORTHERN
LOWER MI AND 50S IN EASTERN UPPER.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT MON APR 28 2025
A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON, POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS.
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. IT WILL BE
WINDY TUESDAY WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH. TURNING SHARPLY
COLDER DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES. CLEARING AND
COLD WITH DIMINISHING WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE
LOTS OF SUNSHINE ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE REGION. A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN
LIKELY LEAD TO SHOWERS THURSDAY, WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS POSSIBLY
LINGERING INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COOLER ONCE AGAIN.
COOL TEMPERATURES LIKELY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY EXPECTED
WARMER READINGS SUNDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED NEXT WEEKEND
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT MON APR 28 2025
VFR TODAY. POTENT LLWS TONIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHRA/TSRA.
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY TONIGHT. AHEAD OF
THIS LOW, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY/TONIGHT. MAINLY
JUST HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES TODAY, BUT HEADING INTO TONIGHT
MOISTURE SURGES BACK INTO THE AREA. SHOWERS AND TSRA WILL
BECOME NUMEROUS AT CIU/PLN/TVC/MBL BY LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AT CIU, AND COULD BRIEFLY
LOWER AT THE OTHER SITES. SIMILARLY, BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE, THOUGH NAILING DOWN EXACTLY WHEN IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME.
S WINDS BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON, SW AND GUSTIER TONIGHT.
LLWS TONIGHT, WITH WINDS 2K FT OFF THE SURFACE AT 50-60KT.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 11 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
LHZ345>349.
GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 11 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
LSZ321.
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...AJS
AVIATION...JZ
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