123
FXUS63 KAPX 290628
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
228 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THIS MORNING. LOW CHANCES OF A
SEVERE STORM.
- WINDY TODAY AND TURNING MUCH COLDER LEADING TO A CHILLY NIGHT
AHEAD.
- SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
- COOL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A WARMING
TREND STARTING SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: ~996MB LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY SITUATED
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR/NORTHERN ONTARIO. PLENTY OF CONVECTION ACROSS
PARTS OF EASTERN WI, CENTRAL/EASTERN U.P. AND NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT. PRIMARY FOCUS REVOLVES AROUND
THE NEXT 6 OR SO HOURS AS CONVECTION, ALBEIT WEAKENING, CROSSES
NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT CLEARING AREA-WIDE
LATER THIS MORNING. HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURES BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING
CENTERED SQUARELY OVERHEAD BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST DETAILS: QUITE THE MILD AND WINDY NIGHT OUT THERE TONIGHT
WITH MANY AREAS ACROSS DOWNSLOPING NORTHWEST LOWER STILL IN THE 70S
AT THIS EARLY HOUR (78! AT TVC). LATEST TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER, NORTHERN LAKE MI,
FAR NORTHWEST LOWER AND POINTS UPSTREAM TO MAKE A RUN ACROSS ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHERN MI OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL OF HOURS. NOTED
DIMINISHING TREND OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS ON KAPX/KMQT/KGRB
WITH LATEST SUITE OF SHORT TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUING THIS TREND AS
PRECIP ROLLS ACROSS NORTHERN MI. THAT SAID, SOME ENHANCED GUSTINESS
OUT AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTION ALONG THE GUSTY FRONT AND CERTAINLY
STILL SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER ANTICIPATED AS DECAYING AXIS OF
INSTABILITY FOLDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE CHANCES FOR SEVERE
STORMS APPEAR TO BE DIMINISHING, THEY'RE CERTAINLY NOT ZERO. ANY
STRONGER STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF ALL HAZARDS
SIMPLY GIVEN SHEAR PARAMETERS. 925MB WINDS ON THE ORDER OF ~70 KTS,
0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES UP OVER 50 KTS WITH SFC-1KM SRH NEARLY 300
M2/S2 AND SFC-3KM >400 M2/S2. THE BULK OF THIS THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 11-12Z, HOWEVER, THE LAGGING COLD FRONT
REMAINS SEVERAL HOURS BEHIND. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT, PRIMARILY NORTHEAST
LOWER, THROUGH THE LATE MORNING TIME FRAME WITH A CONTINUED LOW-END
SEVERE THREAT.
QUITE THE CHANGE ANTICIPATED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY INTO
TONIGHT. CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS TURN OUT OF THE WEST POST FROPA AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO
BE USHERED IN (UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH
OF EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHWEST LOWER) WITH THOSE GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS LEADING TO SUB-FREEZING WIND CHILLS. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/PATCHY
DRIZZLE POSSIBLE AS WELL. WINDS RELAX CONSIDERABLY THIS EVENING
BEFORE TURNING CALM IN MANY AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLEARING/CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
WITH LOWS TONIGHT FALLING IN THE 20S ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN MI.
WHILE THE FORECAST WON'T REFLECT AS SUCH, THERE ARE EVEN SOME LOW
PROBABILITIES OF LOCALIZED TEENS SHOWING UP FOR THE TYPICALLY
COOLER/INTERIOR/ICEBOX LOCALES.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2025
HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING LEADING TO ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THURSDAY MORNING AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY ON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITS OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE. INCREASING RIDGING AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT THIS WEEKEND WITH THE RIDGE HOLDING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AS A RESULT ALONG WITH
PRECIPITATION FREE CONDITIONS. THIS SHOULD MAKE IT FEEL AND LOOK
MORE LIKE TRUE SPRING WITH FLOWERS EMERGING AND TREES BEGINNING TO
BURST OUT IN BLOSSOMS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EDT MON APR 28 2025
STILL EXPECTING UPSTREAM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS, BOTH WITH REGARDS TO OVERALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
THESE STORMS. IF STORMS REMAIN ORGANIZED, A FEW MAY CONTAIN VERY
GUSTY WINDS AND SOME HAIL. SHOWER THREAT CONTINUES INTO TODAY,
WITH AGAIN PERHAPS A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG
LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR EARLY THIS MORNING, THIS DESPITE MAINTENANCE OF
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS. WIND SHEAR ENDS LATER
THIS MORNING, WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST AND REMAINING
GUSTY AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE DAY. SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DECREASE
THIS EVENING.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ345.
GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR LHZ346>349.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ323-341-342-
344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321-
322.
SHORT TERM...MJG
LONG TERM...AJS
AVIATION...MSB
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