464
FXUS63 KAPX 251725
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
125 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TODAY FOR EASTERN UPPER AND NE
LOWER
- CLEARING SKIES MONDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND LINGER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 214 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
CURRENT SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS DEPICT LOW CLOUDS OVER PARTS OF
EASTERN UPPER AND NE LOWER THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
FALLING OVER THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF NW LOWER AS CLEAR SKIES AND CALM
WINDS ARE ALLOWING RADIATIONAL COOLING TO TAKE PLACE. SURFACE DEW
POINTS SIT IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER AND
EASTERN UPPER. IF TDS CAN'T DROP AT OR BELOW 32F, PATCHY FOG WILL
HAVE A HIGHER CHANCE AT FORMING VS FROST THIS MORNING. AREAS WITHIN
THE FROST ADVISORY HAVE CALM WINDS AND DRY AIR ALOFT OBSERVED
WHICH HELPS CONTINUE COOLING AND MOISTURE DEPOSITION ONTO THE
GROUND (DEW), WHICH WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TDS - KEEPING THOSE
BETTER CHANCES FOR FROST IN THE ADVISED AREA.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH MI TODAY FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH, KEEPING WINDS NORTH/NORTHWEST AND CONTINUING CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN CHANCES. BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER NE LOWER AND
EASTERN UPPER. MOST RAIN WILL BE LIGHT (TRACE UP TO A COUPLE
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH). WINDS WILL BE BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT, WINDS DIMINISH AND SKIES WILL CLEAR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABLE TO COOL INTO THE LOW 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS, WITH A FEW SPOTS
DIPPING INTO THE 30S (EASTERN UPPER NEAR THE SOO). PATCHY
RADIATIONAL FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NE LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER,
WITH SOME CHANCES FOR FROST AGAIN WHERE THE TD CAN DROP.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 214 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WEAK MONDAY. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH WINDS LIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK INTO THE 70S
OVER NORTHERN MI. TUESDAY, WINDS TURN EAST AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
STRENGTHENS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
SHROUD THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH RAIN CHANCES MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME,
GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE TO NO CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL WITH THE RAIN. HOWEVER, AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL
EVENTUALLY REACH NORTHERN MI WED/THURS AND WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR
SOME MUCAPE (ENSEMBLES SHOW UP TO A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MUCAPE
WEDNESDAY).
THE PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND, RETURNING
CLEAR SKIES AND A BRIEF SHOT AT COOLER TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
SLIGHT DISTURBANCE PIVOTING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON HELPING BOOST
SHOWER CHANCES, ESP ALONG AND EAST OF I-75...COULD SNEAK INTO KPLN
OR KTVC; PERIODIC MVFR WITH THESE (MAY TRY TO DIP TO IFR AGAIN AT
CIU THOUGH). NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR THUNDER TOWARD APN/OSC BUT FOR NOW
EXPECT THINGS TO STAY TAME. ONSHORE BREEZES AT TVC AND MBL THIS
AFTERNOON; GENERALLY 5-10KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15KTS. NW
WINDS CLOSER TO 10-15KTS FOR CIU/PLN/APN THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND DAYTIME 3-5KFT CUMULUS TO BEGIN TO DIMINISH AROUND
SUNSET WITH WINDS GOING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. FOG DEVELOPMENT (IFR TO
LIFR POSSIBLE) EXPECTED AT MBL TONIGHT, COULD DEVELOP ELSEWHERE AND
HAVE INDICATED THIS POTENTIAL IN TAFS. IMPROVEMENTS MONDAY MORNING
AFTER SUNRISE WITH VFR CIGS.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PBB
LONG TERM...PBB
AVIATION...FEF
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