958
FXUS63 KAPX 260514
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
114 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND LINGER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS: A MESSY UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA DURING THE PERIOD. A SHEARING LOBE OF VORTICITY OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DEPART EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH THE UPPER-
LEVEL FLOW TRENDING MORE NEUTRAL AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FORECAST DETAILS: THE SHEARED VORTICITY LOBE THAT HAS BEEN
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE THICKER CLOUDS/LIGHT SHOWERS TODAY ACROSS THE
EUP AND STRAITS WILL DEPART THIS EVENING. THE SUBSIDENCE WITH THE
NEUTRAL TRENDING UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND BUILDING SURFACE HIGH SHOULD
LARGELY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. A DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
HOWEVER, A MODIFYING AIRMASS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT AND PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FROST
DEVELOPMENT.
NEUTRAL UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OR EVEN SLIGHT SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL BE
IN PLACE FOR MEMORIAL DAY, ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY
IN PLACE. SOMEWHAT STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEVELOP BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON, EVEN PRODUCING UP TO A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF SURFACE BASED
CAPE (ESPECIALLY INLAND). WHILE AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER CAN'T
BE RULED OUT OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LOWER MI, A MORE
LIKELY RESULT IS A ROBUST CU FIELD LIKE IS SEEN TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF
WISCONSIN. THE CONTINUED MODIFICATION OF THE AIR MASS OVERHEAD WILL
RESULT IN MILDER HIGH TEMPERATURES, WITH MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE
LAKE SHORES APPROACHING 70 DEGREES.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS: A QUASI-BLOCKY SPLIT FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. A CUTOFF UPPER LOW DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST BENEATH FLAT RIDGING.
ADDITIONAL TROFFING BENEATH THE RIDGE WILL EXIST OVER THE SOUTHWEST
U.S. THE PLAINS CUTOFF DRIFTS EAST WITH TIME, AND WILL EVENTUALLY BE
ABSORBED INTO A DEVELOPING EASTERN NORTH AMERICA TROF BY THE END OF
THE WEEK. MEANWHILE, UPSTREAM RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY AS WELL OVER
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA, WITH THE SOUTHWEST U.S. TROFFING RETROGRADING
AND CUTTING OFF OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OFF MEXICO.
FORECAST DETAILS: QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO START THE PERIOD,
WITH NEUTRAL UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.
THEN, THE WEATHER TRENDS MORE UNSETTLED AS WE BEGIN TO SEE THE
IMPACTS OF THE EASTWARD DRIFTING PLAINS CUTOFF UPPER LOW. SHOWERY
WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE (AND EVENTUALLY THE AMPLIFYING
EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN TROF) WILL ARRIVE AS EARLY AS TUESDAY NIGHT
AND APPEARS LIKELY TO LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. WHILE
I'VE SEEN WORSE MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW,
THERE ARE NOTABLE DISAGREEMENTS WITH RESPECT TO ITS TRACK AND SPEED
OF MOVEMENT. THIS IS NOT SURPRISING GIVEN MODEL STRUGGLES WITH
BLOCKING PATTERNS AND HOW/WHEN THEY EVENTUALLY BREAK DOWN. THE RISK
OF SHOWERY WEATHER MAY DIMINISH BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE DEPARTURE
OF THE UPPER LOW, BUT WE WILL STILL BE FIRMLY WITHIN THE EASTERN
NORTH AMERICAN TROF AND SUBJECT TO THE PASSAGE OF ANY IMPULSES
WITHIN THAT FLOW REGIME. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK ARE FAVORED
TO BE RELATIVELY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS, ALTHOUGH A LITTLE
COOLER MIDWEEK WHEN SHOWER COVERAGE IS APT TO BE GREATEST.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 112 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
STILL ANTICIPATING SOME IFR PRODUCING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP AT KMBL EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THIS FOG/LOW CLOUDS
QUICKLY MIXING OUT AROUND SUNRISE. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA UNDER JUST SOME HIGHER BASED CUMULUS
TODAY AND HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WITH LOCAL
LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PBB
LONG TERM...PBB
AVIATION...MSB
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