011
FXUS63 KAPX 261301
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
901 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
-HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO BEAUTIFUL MEMORIAL DAY WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES CLIMB SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO RECENT TRENDS.
-QUIET WEATHER SET TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. ROUNDS OF ON-AND-OFF
SHOWERS RETURN LATER THIS WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 858 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
INHERITED FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK THIS MORNING. DID
ADD A SMALL CHANCE (<20%) FOR A ROGUE SHOWER OR SPRINKLE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS. GIVEN FAIRLY ROBUST CU
DEVELOPMENT ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH INLAND
PENETRATING LAKE BREEZES, THINK THERE'S ENOUGH OF A CHANCE THERE
TO WARRANT A MENTION. TIMEFRAME OF "HIGHEST" LIKELIHOOD FOR THIS
IS GENERALLY BETWEEN 20-00Z.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 208 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
CONTINUES TO KEEP QUIET CONDITIONS FOR THE NORTHWOODS. CURRENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS ANY REMAINING CLOUD COVER BURNING OFF THIS
EVENING AND ALLOWING FOR OVERNIGHT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO RAPIDLY
DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE CWA. MIDLEVEL
PATTERN OVERHEAD DEPICTS A SPLIT FLOW SET-UP WITH LONGWAVE TROUGHING
CENTERED OVER NOVA SCOTIA ADVECTING NORTHEASTERLY. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO
SLIGHTLY RISE TODAY AND TUESDAY FROM A SHORTWAVE RIDGE, RESULTING IN
OVERHEAD SUBSIDENCE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THROUGHOUT THE
ENTIRETY OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, CALM WINDS,
AND HIGHS AROUND 70 WILL BE A RECIPE FOR A BEAUTIFUL MEMORIAL DAY
OTHER THAN CURRENT LAKE MICHIGAN TEMPERATURES REMAINING AROUND 50
DEGREES IN THE OPEN WATERS. NOT SURE HOW MUCH RECREATIONAL SWIMMING
WILL BE ONGOING BUT LOCAL HARBORS AND BAY MAY BE A LITTLE MORE
COMFORTABLE.
CLOUD COVER BEGINS TO SLOWLY BUILD IN THE LATER AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS DUE TO UPSTREAM WAVE ENERGY OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS WILL
RETURN CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD BUT ONLY
EFFECT IT HAS ON MICHIGAN TONIGHT WILL BE THE SLOW OVERSPREAD OF
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER WILL PROHIBIT
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING PROCESSES AND KEEP LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 208 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
SHORTWAVE MIDLEVEL RIDGING AXIS WILL BE CENTERED OVER LAKE HURON
THIS TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DELIVER ANOTHER DAY OF
QUIET WEATHER BEFORE A MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS MOVES TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THIS WEEK. CURRENT TROUGHING LEE OF THE ROCKIES
CONTINUES TO ADVECT EASTWARD, WHILE DEEPENING WITH CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE PIVOTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT THEN MOVES INTO MICHGIAN DURING THE DAYTIME, THUS RETURNING
THE FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE CWA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
HIGHEST QPF REMAINS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS BEING DRIVEN BY WARM
AIR ADVECTION. EARLY SIGNS SHOW THAT THE LOW WILL TRACK DIRECTLY
OVER THE CWA THEN PROCEED TO OCCLUDE THROUGH THURSDAY. QPF TOTALS
ARE A BIT BLURRY... BUT IF THIS TROUGH STALLS AND SLOWLY PROGRESSES
EASTWARD RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH THURSDAY MAY BE APPROACHING AN
INCH.
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS THIS TROUGH SLOWLY PROGRESSES EASTERLY,
BUT ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE IS PRETTY WEAK AND SPARSE. OTHER THAN THE
OCCASIONAL RAIN THATS ENOUGH TO WET PAVEMENT, THIS TROUGHING PATTERN
WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH HIGHS AROUND CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 622 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA UNDER JUST SOME HIGHER
BASED CUMULUS TODAY AND HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS
WITH LOCAL LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
UPDATE...MJG
SHORT TERM...SJC
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...MSB
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