347
FXUS63 KAPX 262320
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
720 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 206 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: LOW AMPLITUDE MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS
ATOP NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON WITH ATTENDANT SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHED FROM NEAR HUDSON BAY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. LITTLE CHANGE TO THIS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH ATTENTION
SLOWLY SHIFTING TOWARD THE MIDWEEK TIME FRAME AS CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST DETAILS: PLENTY OF INLAND CU DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE CHANCES ARE VERY LOW, CAN'T ENTIRE RULE OUT A ROGUE SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE AXIS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THAT SAID, THE VAST
MAJORITY OF NORTHERN MI WILL REMAIN DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND
LOW 70S. CU DIMINISHES THIS EVENING, ONLY TO BE FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUD TONIGHT (ESPECIALLY LATE) INTO TUESDAY IN
RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM WAVE AND CONVECTION OVER THE PLAINS/MIDWEST. DO
THINK THERE MAY BE AT LEAST A SMALL WINDOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING WHERE WE COMBINE NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS. HAVE
TRENDED TONIGHT'S TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COLDER, BUT DIDN'T BITE
TOO FAR TOWARD THE COLDEST END OF THE SPECTRUM (MID-30S).
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER ANTICIPATED TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING/THICKENING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY. GENERALLY LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS AOB 10 MPH WITH JUST A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 15 MPH.
HIGH TEMPS BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MOST...COOLER AT THE
LAKESHORES.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 206 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
PATTERN FORECAST: BY TUESDAY NIGHT, CLOSED UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO
BE SITUATED ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE MID-MS VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES
LOCALLY IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN
CHANCES RETURNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE MAY LINGER INTO THURSDAY. BY
MIDDAY FRIDAY, A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE ARRIVING FROM THE NORTH
WITH ATTENDANT LOW-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH SAGGING INTO NORTHERN MI
FRIDAY NIGHT. SHOT OF COOLER AIR TO BE SHORT-LIVED, HOWEVER, WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REBOUND THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
FORECAST DETAILS: PRIMARY FOCUS THROUGH THE LONG TERM REVOLVES
AROUND RAIN CHANCES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. INITIAL
SHOWER CHANCES EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BETWEEN 09-12Z WEDNESDAY ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS...SLOWLY TREKKING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. LATEST TRENDS FAVOR A GENERAL 0.10-0.40" OF QPF BY 00Z
THURSDAY (LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH NORTH OF THE BRIDGE). LESS
CONFIDENCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWS TO
OUR EAST AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE LINGERS, ALTHOUGH THERE'S PLENTY
OF ENSEMBLE SUPPORT TO CONTINUE SHOWER CHANCES INTO THE DAY THURSDAY
-- MOST NUMEROUSLY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
A GENERAL DRYING TREND ANTICIPATED THURSDAY NIGHT; HOWEVER, A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE ACROSS NORTHERN MI FROM THE NORTH LATER
FRIDAY. WHILE MOISTURE SHOULD BE RATHER LIMITED, THERE'S ENOUGH
SUPPORT FOR THE MENTION OF A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO KICK
OFF NEXT WEEKEND, BUT WORTH WATCHING ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TREKKING BY TO OUR SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY. POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES WITH THIS WAVE, ALTHOUGH LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/COVERAGE AT THIS POINT.
COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERY CONDITIONS. A BRIEF WARMUP FRIDAY TO NEAR 70
IN MANY AREAS BEFORE FALLING BACK INTO THE 60S ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER
UPWARD TREND LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 720 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
VFR CIGS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF NORTHERN
MICHIGAN THROUGH THE ISSUANCE PERIOD. DIURNAL CU WITH BASES BETWEEN
6-9KFT WILL CONTINUE DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS DAYTIME
HEATING CEASES, LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. WEAK/CALM WINDS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED TONIGHT, POTENTIALLY LEADING TO PATCHY FG/BR
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS A FEW LOW-LYING AREAS NEAR MOISTURE SOURCES --
INCLUDING MBL. ANY FG/BR WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE
TUESDAY MORNING. PRIMARILY EAST WINDS BETWEEN 5-10 KTS ARE IN STORE
FOR TUESDAY WITH LAKE BREEZE FORMATION POTENTIALLY PUSHING INLAND
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MJG
LONG TERM...MJG
AVIATION...DJC
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