588
FXUS63 KAPX 270710
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
223 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
-ROUNDS OF SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 222 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDLEVEL SPLIT FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES TO
KEEP THE CENTRAL CONUS UNDER A WEAK UNSTABLE AIR MASS FOR THE TIME
BEING. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE RIDGING HAS ITS TROUGH AXIS DIRECTLY OVER
NORTHERN MICHIGAN TODAY ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
FORECAST DETAILS: NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS
FORECAST AS SURFACE CONDITIONS REMAIN PRETTY QUIET TODAY. CLOUD
COVER CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ENGULF THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AS UPSTREAM
TROUGHING ADVECTS TO THE NORTHEAST. OBSERVED TEMPERATURES WERE
QUICKLY FALLING AROUND 00-03Z LAST NIGHT, BUT THE CURRENT SPREAD OF
MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL HINDER OVERNIGHT RADIATIONAL COOLING
PROCESSES. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO STILL BE JUST BEFORE 12Z
THIS MORNING, REMAINING IN THE MID TO LOW 40S FOR MOST PARTS OF THE
CWA. TUESDAYS WEATHER IS PRETTY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS FORECAST AS
HIGHS REMAIN IN THE LOW 70S OTHER THAN AREAS DIRECTLY NEXT TO MARINE
ZONES. DAYTIME LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL LEAD TO MANY LOCATIONS
ON THE WATER (INCLUDING TRAVERSE BAY) TO REMAIN IN THE 60S. BESIDES
CLOUD COVER INCREASING FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS, CONDITIONS REMAIN
QUIET UNTIL UPSTREAM MIDLEVEL TROUGHING MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES AND THUS RETURNING (RELATIVELY) MORE ACTIVE WEATHER DURING THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 222 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
PATTERN FORECAST: MIDLEVEL CLOSED LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
MINNESOTA/IOWA BOARDER AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM. ATTACHED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TACK NORTHWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND
BE CENTERED OVER LAKE HURON WEDNESDAY EVENING. SHOWERS AND
POTENTIALLY COUPLE STORMS (NEAR SAGINAW BAY) ARE EXPECTED TO
COMMENCE WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY UNTIL THIS MIDLEVEL LOW
DISSIPATES WHILE ADVECTING NORTHEASTERLY. LONGWAVE MIDLEVEL
TROUGHING CONTINUES TO OCCUPY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND THUS CONTINUING CHANCES OF PRECIP
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS QUICKLY RISE FOR
MICHIGAN ON MONDAY ALONG WITH A WARM AIR MASS ADVECTING FROM THE
PLAINS REGION AND RETURNING HIGHS NEAR 80S FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A
FEW WEEKS FOR THE CWA.
FORECAST DETAILS: PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
WILL REMAIN THE MOST ACTIVE PERIOD THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
SHOWERS SPREAD NORTHERLY BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TODAYS GUIDANCE
KEEPS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF NORTHERN MICHGIAN, MEANING
MORE PRECIPITATION WILL BE GENERATED FROM THE DEFORMATION ZONE
RATHER THAN THE SYSTEM OCCLUDING OVER THE NORTHWOODS. LATEST TRENDS
CONTINUE TO PUSH A GENERAL QUARTER TO HALF INCH ACROSS NORTHERN
LOWER WITH THE HIGHER END OF THE SPECTRUM FAVORING AREAS EAST OF I-
75. EASTERN UPPER WILL REMAIN PRETTY DRY DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, BUT
CAN STILL OBSERVE LESS THAN A TENTH TO (MORE LIKELY) JUST A TRACE OF
PRECIP.
OVERALL DRYING WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATER THURSDAY EVENING AS LOW
PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN AND ADVECTS NORTHEASTERLY. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO
CLEAR THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT RETURNING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS THIS FRIDAY ALONG WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY GENERATING
SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE
QUIET OVERALL, BUT MIDLEVEL WAVES OF ENERGY ARE SET TO CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, KEEPING LOW CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION IN
THE FORECAST. SHARP RIDGING BEGINS NEXT MONDAY; LIKELY LEADING TO
THE RETURN OF WARM AIR BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION AND PUSHING HIGHS
AROUND 80 TO START OFF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
UPDATE: KMBL METAR HAS BEEN CARRYING HZ FOR THE LAST HOUR OR SO,
WITH VSBYS DOWN TO ~2SM. WILL CONTINUE CARRYING THIS INCREMENTALLY
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS ASSUMING IT CONTINUES. DIFFICULT TO KNOW THE
ORIGIN OF THIS (COULD BE A LOCAL EFFECT), AS OTHER SITES ARE NOT
CARRYING THIS, AND LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE IS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT BR/FG.
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
WINDS/GUSTS LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT, BECOMING
EASTERLY ON TUESDAY, AOB 10 TO 15 KTS. HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
THICKEN THRU THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SJC
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...JLD
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