210
FXUS63 KAPX 280436
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1236 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
-DRY THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY.
-SHOWER CHANCES AT VARIOUS TIMES WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY.
-COOLER STRETCH THIS WEEKEND PRECEDES WARMUP NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 242 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
CURRENT OVERVIEW / PATTERN SYNOPSIS:
1029MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR CONTINUES TO BE
THE DOMINANT FORCE IN THE WEATHER DEPARTMENT TODAY, KEEPING LOW
LEVEL DRIER AIR IN PLACE AS THE OVERREACHING INFLUENCES OF A
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN CORN BELT REGION SPREAD
IN SOME HIGH CLOUD ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN. MODEST EAST TO
NORTHEAST FLOW SHOWING ITS INFLUENCES, WITH IMMEDIATE LAKE HURON
LOCALES SEEING THAT MARINE LAYER EFFECT (ROGERS CITY CURRENTLY
IN THE UPPER 50S). MEANWHILE, IN NW LOWER, THE EFFECT HAS BEEN
IN CONTRAST FOR THE TIME BEING, WITH EFFICIENT DOWNSLOPING
ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO SPIKE WELL INTO THE 70S (PLN 73, FKS 72).
ANTICIPATING THIS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING GRADIENT TO INDUCE A LAKE
MICHIGAN BREEZE, WHICH IS WELL UNDERWAY IN SOME LOCALES SUCH AS
HARBOR SPRINGS AND TRAVERSE CITY, CURRENTLY STUCK IN THE 60S,
AND SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE LAKESHORES AND SLOWLY
PROGRESS INLAND OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
ANTICIPATING DRY CONDITIONS TO HOLD NOT JUST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON, BUT TONIGHT TOO, AND PERHAPS EVEN
MOST OF TOMORROW, AS WHAT ONCE LOOKED LIKE A PRETTY QUALITY BET
FOR A RAINIER DAY WEDNESDAY HAS CHANGED COURSE RATHER
CONSIDERABLY IN THE LAST COUPLE FORECAST CYCLES.
TONIGHT, ANTICIPATING SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS, BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH
TO LEAD TO A RADIATIONAL COOLING FREE FALL. ANTICIPATING MOST AREAS
SETTLE AROUND 44 TO 55 DEGREE RANGE, COOLEST IN THE INTERIOR / NE
LOWER AND WARMEST SOUTH AND WEST OF GRAND TRAVERSE BAY.
CLOUDS WILL FILL IN RATHER QUICKLY TOMORROW, BUT ANTICIPATING THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND, AT LEAST AT FIRST, DUE TO
THE LINGERING INFLUENCES OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
THAT UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN CORN BELT WILL SLOWLY PLOD EASTWARD,
WITH A LOUSY SURFACE LOW REFLECTION MATERIALIZING IN THE OHIO VALLEY
DUE TO THE VERTICALLY STACKED NATURE OF THE SYSTEM. AS A RESULT, DRY
AIR WILL HOLD STOUT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION UNTIL THE DEEPER
MOISTURE ADVECTION BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY PRODUCE SHOWER POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SAGINAW BAY AREA,
PERHAPS BLEEDING WESTWARD TOWARD MANISTEE, BUT IF HI-RES GUIDANCE
HAS ANYTHING TO SAY ABOUT THAT, ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL HOLD
UNTIL AFTER 00Z THURSDAY. AS SUCH, HAVE LOWERED POPS AND QPF RATHER
CONSIDERABLY, CONFINING THEM TO THE VERY SOUTHERN REACHES OF
THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY PEAK IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S... WARMEST EASTERN YOOP DUE TO LESSENED CLOUD COVER.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 242 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO SCRAPE THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WITH MOISTURE
CONCENTRATION BECOMING LESS IMPRESSIVE INTO THURSDAY. SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SAGINAW BAY REGION TRENDS UPWARD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, SPREADING NORTH AND WESTWARD WITH TIME INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING... GENERALLY FAVORING SPOTS EAST OF A CADILLAC TO CHEBOYGAN
LINE... BEFORE TAPERING QUITE CONSIDERABLY LATER THURSDAY MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, POPS MOST CONCENTRATED IN THAT NECK OF
THE WOODS, LESSER TO THE WEST (AND IN THE EASTERN YOOP TOO, WHICH
MAY HOLD COMPLETELY DRY). ALL IN ALL... NOT ANTICIPATING A WHOLE LOT
OF RAINFALL AS IT IS... SO NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT OF A DAY
THURSDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS THEN PREVAIL AMID DECREASING CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE EAST, LEAVING US
DRY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SURGE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY, BRINGING
BACK MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER TO THE
REGION. CONSIDERING THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE (EARLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, PRIOR TO THE GENERATION OF INSTABILITY)... THIS TOO COULD
BE AN UNDERWHELMING SHOT AT RAINFALL. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TIMING
OF THIS BOUNDARY, BECAUSE IF IT TRENDS SLOWER, THEN RAIN AND THUNDER
POTENTIAL WILL ONLY GO UP... AND IF IT TRENDS EARLIER, WE COULD BE
LOOKING AT EFFICIENT MIXING AMID A WARMER AND DRIER DAY. YES WE ARE
IN GREENUP, BUT AS WE SEE SO OFTEN, MISSING A RAIN CHANCE CAN SEND
THINGS IN THE OTHER DIRECTION FOR FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL IN THE EVENT
THAT WE TURN WARMER AND HAVE A DRIER SPELL IN THE CARDS. WHILE WE
WILL COOL DOWN THIS WEEKEND (HIGHS IN THE 60S, POTENTIAL FROST
SATURDAY NIGHT?), IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL DO JUST THAT... WARMER AND
DRIER WEATHER LOOKS TO MAKE A REBOUND NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS
POTENTIALLY REACHING WELL INTO THE 70S MONDAY, AND POTENTIALLY
SOARING WELL INTO THE 80S (AT LEAST) NEXT TUESDAY AND BEYOND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1235 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD FOR MOST AREAS. CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY, BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. MORE LIKELY, SHOWERS WILL CREEP INTO KAPN
AFTER 00Z, DROPPING CIGS TO MVFR AND PERHAPS LOWER. OTHERWISE, VFR
EXPECTED FOR OTHER TERMINALS. PRIMARILY EAST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS ARE
ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS TO 15-20 KTS AT TIMES
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HAD
LONG TERM...HAD
AVIATION...JLD
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