445
FXUS63 KAPX 280638
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
238 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
-SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN LINGER THROUGH
FRIDAY.
-WARMER AIR RETURNS TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 229 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
TODAY... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY SPREAD ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH THE MAJORITY OF ONTARIO MOVES NORTHEASTERLY AS
WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PROGRESSES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER THIS AFTERNOON. LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED AT THE WESTERN END OF LAKE ERIE THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHOWERS BEGIN TO SPREAD SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE
STATE. BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL BE FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA
AS SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVE OVER AREAS SOUTH OF THE M-72 CORRIDOR.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LOW WITH THIS SET UP AS ONLY TENTH OF AN
INCH OF QPF IS EXPECTED FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS.TEMPERATURES REMAIN
SIMILAR TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS BOTH NORTHERN
LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER.
TONIGHT... OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST TONIGHT
OVER NORTHERN LOWER. AREAS TO LIKELY SEE RAINFALL SHIFT TO LOCATIONS
EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR WITH AN ADDITIONAL 0.10 TO 0.30 EXPECTED.
ONLY A TENTH OR LESS REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE
STATE ALONG WITH MOST OF EASTERN UPPER. CLOUD COVER AND MOIST
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS OVERNIGHT
LOWS REMAIN AROUND 50.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 229 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
THURSDAY... SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. SUBSEQUENT SUBSIDENCE ALOFT RETURNS
QUIET CONDITIONS AND CLOUD COVER BEGINS TO CLEAR. COOL AND DRY AIR
FROM THE NORTH KEEPS TEMPERATURES AROUND CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
FRIDAY... MIDLEVEL TROUGHING ENCOMPASSES THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND
THE EASTERN HALF OF CANADA. A WEAK COLD FRONT ATTACHED TO SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF HUDSON BAY ADVECTS SOUTHWARD THIS FRIDAY.
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT SHOULD GENERATE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
ALONG WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO CREATE A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY... MIDLEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS TO OCCUPY THE
GREAT LAKES REGION, BUT CONDITIONS TREND QUIETER AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD FROM THE WEST THANKS TO A RIDGE PROGRESSING
ACROSS THE COUNTRY. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP ADVECTING A COOL AIR
MASS. TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 60S RESULTING IN A BEAUTIFUL
WEEKEND TO KICK OFF JUNE.
MONDAY/TUESDAY OUTLOOK... HEIGHTS BEGIN TO QUICKLY RISE THIS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AS RIDGING ENGULFS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS PATTERN
SUPPORTS THE CONTINUATION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND OVERALL QUIET
WEATHER. TEMPERATURES QUICKLY BUILD WELL ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK AS
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1235 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD FOR MOST AREAS. CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY, BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. MORE LIKELY, SHOWERS WILL CREEP INTO KAPN
AFTER 00Z, DROPPING CIGS TO MVFR AND PERHAPS LOWER. OTHERWISE, VFR
EXPECTED FOR OTHER TERMINALS. PRIMARILY EAST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS ARE
ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS TO 15-20 KTS AT TIMES
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SJC
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...JLD
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