491
FXUS63 KAPX 290614
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
214 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWER CHANCES AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AND AGAIN
ON FRIDAY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN.
- VERY WARM TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 221 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SITS ATOP
THE UPPER MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WITH ATTENDANT WEAK SURFACE LOW
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. BY THURSDAY MORNING, ~1014MB LOW PRESSURE
EXPECTED TO BE SITUATED OVER LAKE HURON BEFORE TREKKING NORTHEAST TO
THE QUEBEC/ONTARIO BORDER THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
FORECAST DETAILS: NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER THUS FAR
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN UNDER GRADUALLY INCREASING MID-CLOUD. THAT
SAID, DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS IN THE PROCESS OF INCREASING FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH WITH INITIAL SHOWER CHANCES EXPECTED TO ARRIVE OVER
THE NEXT HANDFUL OF HOURS -- PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHERN REACHES
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THESE SHOWER CHANCES EXPAND TO NEAR THE
M-32 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING BEFORE BECOMING MORE FOCUSED OVER
NORTHEAST LOWER OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY MEANDERS
FROM SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN TO EASTERN LAKE HURON.
OFF AND ON SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY AS WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE LINGERS ON THE BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.
NOT ANTICIPATING THIS ACTIVITY TO BE OVERLY WIDESPREAD, BUT THERE'S
SIMPLY NOT ENOUGH SUPPORT TO LOWER/REMOVE POPS.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S BEFORE CLIMBING BACK INTO
THE 60S AND LOW 70S ON THURSDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 221 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
PATTERN FORECAST: POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE
NATION'S MIDSECTION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NEUTRAL AS IT AMPLIFIES AND CENTERS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK/EARLY
WEEKEND WITH THE PRIMARY SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR NORTHERN
MICHIGAN ARRIVING ON FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT RACING NORTH
TO SOUTH. RESULTANT LOW-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH SAGS INTO NORTHERN MI
FOR SATURDAY WITH REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. POTENTIAL FOR VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES HEADING TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS AMPLIFIED
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY.
FORECAST DETAILS: A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN SHOWER CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS LINGERING SUPPORT FROM DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE IS LOST. ATTENTION TRANSITIONS TO THE DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY
AS A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BARREL NORTH TO
SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. INCREASED SHOWER CHANCES EXPECTED
AHEAD OF/ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. DEPENDING ON FRONTAL TIMING, OF WHICH
THERE STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME
POSSIBLE AS WELL -- PRIMARILY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING
PROMOTES THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW HUNDRED J/KG MUCAPE.
A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS SETTLES IN POST FROPA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE
COOLEST DAY OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS LARGELY TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW-MID 60S. SOME GUSTINESS
ANTICIPATED AS WELL FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE
HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG COLD
ADVECTION LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.
LATEST TRENDS SUPPORT A SHORTWAVE PASSING BY TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE
PLAINS/MIDWEST SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ANY ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION REMAINING WELL UPSTREAM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE BACK INTO THE 70S BY
MONDAY WITH TRENDS SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD 80S FOR TUESDAY (MAYBE EVEN
SOME 90S IN DOWNSLOPING LOCALES?). NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL, AT LEAST BY NORTHERN MI STANDARDS.
GIVEN THAT INCREASED HEAT/HUMIDITY, THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER APPEARS TO RETURN BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 202 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
ISO/SCT -SHRA WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT, AND INTO THE DAY ON
THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHEAST LOWER. THINK VFR CIGS WILL
PREVAIL AT MOST TAF SITES OUTSIDE OF KAPN, ALTHOUGH SOME LOW
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR AT KTVC & KMBL, (ESP WITHIN -SHRA), ALTHOUGH
KEPT THAT OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE.
KAPN SEEING MVFR, WITH IFR CIGS LIKELY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
INTO THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THURSDAY. ALL LOCATION BECOME VFR
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY,
AOB 5 TO 10 KTS, OCCASIONAL GUSTS INTO THE TEENS.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MJG
LONG TERM...MJG
AVIATION...JLD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page