831
FXUS63 KAPX 290731
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
244 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
-LINGERING SHOWERS CONTINUE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TODAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS EXPECTED AGAIN THIS FRIDAY
ACROSS THE NORTHWOODS.
-COOLER AIR SETTLES BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND. WATCHING
FOR FROST POTENTIAL SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A QUICK WARMING
TREND NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 242 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
TODAY...MIDLEVEL CLOSED LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND MOVE
TOWARDS THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER. SURFACE OCCLUDED LOW WILL
PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY, CONTINUING ROUNDS OF LIGHT
SHOWERS. RAINFALL WILL BE MAINLY OVER NORTHERN LOWER BESIDES A FEW
LINGERING BANDS NORTH OF THE BRIDGE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN PRETTY
LOW, AS ONLY AN ADDITIONAL TENTH OF AN INCH CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER. LOCALIZED AREAS JUST SOUTH OF THUNDER BAY MAY
PERHAPS SEE TOTALS CLOSER TO A QUARTER INCH WHEN SHOWERS FINALLY
DEPART TO THE EAST, BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE BREIFLY DRYING
ACROSS THE CWA.
TONIGHT... CLOUD COVER BREIFLY CLEARS IN THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE
DEPARTING OCCLUDED LOW, BUT SHOULD START TO SLOWLY INCREASE FROM THE
NORTH DUE TO AN INCOMING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD
NORTH TO SOUTH WITH THE LEADING EDGE PLACED OVER EASTERN UPPER
DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS TIMEFRAME AS THE MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ONCE AGAIN REMAIN
LOW AND THE MAJORITY OF AREAS STAY DRY. THOSE THAT DUE HAVE A CELL
OR TWO OVERHEAD WILL LIKELY ONLY SEE ABOUT A TRACE OF MEASURABLE
LIQUID UNTIL THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 242 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
FRIDAY... MIDLEVEL TROUGHING DIPPING DOWN INTO THE MIDWEST ALL THE
WAY FROM THE ARCTIC CIRCLE WILL CONTINUE ACTIVE WEATHER THIS FRIDAY.
CLOSED MIDLEVEL VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE WITH ATTACHED COLD
FRONT WILL ADVECT SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS FRIDAY.
CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN SHOWERS WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GENERATE A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE PRECIPITATION UNTIL FRIDAY
EVENING.
SATURDAY...MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE WITH WEEKEND ALONG WITH
COOL, NORTHERLY AIR SETTLING INTO THE REGION. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL
CREATE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND WEATHER. HIGHS
REMAIN IN THE 60S WITH SUNNY SKIES FOLLOWED BY A PRETTY CHILLY
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL RAPIDLY DUE TO OVERNIGHT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
LOWS IN THE MID 30S REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER,
THUS CREATING A CONCERN FOR FROST.
SUNDAY... MIDLEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD AND
ENGULF THE CENTRAL CONUS. CONDITIONS REMAIN SIMILAR TO SATURDAY WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING QUIET AND COOL CONDTIONS. HIGHS MAY
START TO CLIMB A SMIDGE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S. NO
IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD.
MONDAY AND BEYOND... WARM AND HUMID AIR BEGINS TO ADVECT INTO THE
MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES INCREASE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS STARTING
NEXT WEEK WITH TRENDS SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO EVEN THE
90S FOR SOME OF THE TYPICALLY WARMER PARTS OF THE CWA. LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE HINTS AT SOME MORE ACTIVE WEATHER DUE TO THIS HOT AND HUMID
AIR MASS TO SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 202 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
UPDATE: KAPN CIGS HAVE LOWERED TO LIFR, WHICH WILL BE LIKELY AT
TIMES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, OR A MIX BETWEEN IFR/LIFR.
ISO/SCT -SHRA WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT, AND INTO THE DAY ON
THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHEAST LOWER. THINK VFR CIGS WILL
PREVAIL AT MOST TAF SITES OUTSIDE OF KAPN, ALTHOUGH SOME LOW
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR AT KTVC & KMBL, (ESP WITHIN -SHRA), ALTHOUGH
KEPT THAT OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE.
KAPN SEEING MVFR, WITH IFR CIGS LIKELY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
INTO THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THURSDAY. ALL LOCATION BECOME VFR
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY,
AOB 5 TO 10 KTS, OCCASIONAL GUSTS INTO THE TEENS.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SJC
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...JLD
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