348
FXUS63 KAPX 300553
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
153 AM EDT FRI MAY 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW MORE SHOWERS FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY A DRY AND BIT COOLER
WEEKEND.
- WARMING TREND KICKS OFF NEXT WEEK, EXPANDING MID-SUMMER LIKE HEAT
INTO THE NORTHWOODS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:
LONGWAVE TROUGHING IN THE PROCESS OF DEEPENING ACROSS NORTHEAST NOAM
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, HELPED ALONG BE ONGOING ABSORPTION OF CURRENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. EARLY MORE
ORGANIZED RAINS TIED TO THAT SHORTWAVE HAVE LARGELY DISSIPATED,
OWNING TO THINNING VERTICAL MOISTURE PROFILES AND STEADY DECAY OF
FORCING. AS ONE WOULD EXPECT THIS TIME OF YEAR, CURRENT TEMPERATURES
HIGHLY TIED TO CLOUD TRENDS, WITH CURRENT READING MOSTLY IN THE 60S,
WITH A BIT WARMER READINGS NORTH OF THE BIG BRIDGE WHERE CLOUDS HAVE
MORE AGGRESSIVELY THINNED.
NORTHEAST NOAM TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS WE HEAD THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE
SOUTH ON ITS BACKSIDE, DRIVING A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION ON
FRIDAY.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND ADDRESSING ADDITIONAL SHOWER (THUNDERSTORM?)
POTENTIAL THROUGH FRIDAY.
DETAILS:
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END AS WE HEAD THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON, LEAVING BEHIND DRY CONDITIONS UNDER
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT. CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
TOUCH OF EARLY MORNING FOG, ESPECIALLY WHERE RAINS WERE A BIT MORE
SUBSTANTIAL TODAY. NEAR NORMAL LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MAKE STEADY SOUTH
PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. FORCING IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE,
BUT JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WITH SOME DIURNALLY-
DRIVEN INSTABILITY TO DRIVE SOME SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THAT DIURNAL SUPPORT, CAN'T
RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO WITH A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF
MIXED LAYER CAPE AND LIMITED INHIBITION THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS.
LIMITED CAPE THROUGH THE HAIL-PRODUCING LEVELS AND WEAK SHEAR SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS. A BIT MILDER FRIDAY, WITH
EXPECTED HIGHS UP INTO THE 70S PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:
PERIOD OF CHANGE AS EARLY WEEKEND OVERHEAD TROUGHING LOOKS TO GET
REPLACED BY MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEARLY FULL RANGE OF BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITE ON
BOARD WITH THIS IDEA. ABOVE DEFINITELY SUPPORTS A STEADY WARMING
TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF EAST COAST
SURFACE HIGH ONLY ADDING TO THE WARMING CAUSE AS SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW MATURES INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
MAIN FOCUS ON TEMPERATURE TRENDS...ESPECIALLY ON AN EXPECTED WARMING
TREND NEXT WEEK.
DETAILS:
TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A DRY WEEKEND AS LARGE AREA OF CANADA
ORIGINATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH BEHIND FRIDAY'S
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. ATTENDANT SLUG OF CANADIAN AIR WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A BIT ON THE LOW SIDE OF NORMAL, WITH HIGHS SATURDAY
MOSTLY IN THE 60S...TACKING ON JUST A FEW DEGREES FOR SUNDAY.
WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT DOWN INTO THE 30S
IN OUR TYPICAL COLDER INTERIOR LOCATIONS. WARMING TREND BEGINS IN
EARNEST EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK (HELPED ALONG BY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES),
WITH PATTERN RECOGNITION CONFIRMING MID-RANGE GUIDANCE TRENDS OF
HIGHS UP INTO THE 80S TUESDAY ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA. A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ENTERS THE PICTURE FOR WEDNESDAY, WITH AT LEAST
SOME SUPPORT FOR DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTION AND PERHAPS SOME
SHOWERS/STORMS TO ENTER OUR AREA AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND
MID LEVEL WAVE. A SLOWER ARRIVAL WOULD DEFINITELY ALLOW TEMPERATURES
AGAIN TO SPIKE WELL INTO THE 80S WEDNESDAY. WE SHALL SEE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT FRI MAY 30 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CEILINGS WILL LOWER
BKN050-080 TODAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS SOUTHWARD. SHRA MAY
BRIEFLY RESTRICTS CONDITION LOWER THAN FORECASTED, ESPECIALLY
FOR KAPN. AN ISOLATED TSRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT IMPACTS AND
CONFIDENCE OVER SITES REMAIN LOW. WESTERLY WINDS TURN NORTHWEST,
GUSTING INTO THE MID/UPPER TEENS.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...JLD
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