367
FXUS63 KAPX 301054
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
654 AM EDT FRI MAY 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
-SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN TODAY.
-HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS QUIET AND COOL WEATHER THIS WEEKEND
FOLLOWED BY WARM/HOT TEMPERATURES BUILDING NEXT WEEK.
ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES POSSIBLE MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT FRI MAY 30 2025
TODAY... SURFACE LOW PRESSURE POSITIONED JUST EAST OF HUDSON BAY
WILL DRAG AN ATTACHED COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN MICHGIAN TODAY.
SHOWERS GENERATED BY LIFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING
SCATTERED ACROSS EASTERN UPPER THIS MORNING SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. PRECIP WILL REACH NORTHERN LOWER IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
SOME INSTABILITY THAT COULD GENERATE A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
WITH THAT BEING SAID... SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN PRETTY SPARSE
AND WEAK AS PROBABILITIES OF A TENTH INCH OF QPF OR MORE IS LOW (10%
TO 30%). MODEL SOUNDING SUPPORT THIS AS PWAT'S, DEW POINTS AND
LOW/MID LEVEL RH'S REMAIN AROUND AVERAGE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FOR LATE
MAY. MOST AREAS ARE JUST LIKELY TO INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND THOSE THAT DO GET HIT BY A CONVECTIVE RAIN
THAT HAS ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WET PAVEMENT.
TONIGHT... THE COLD FRONT WILL BE STRADDLED ACROSS MID MICHIGAN
FRIDAY EVENING. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE DRYING BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT, LEADING TO COOL TEMPERATURES AND
CLEARING SKIES. WINDS REMAIN BREEZY FROM THE NORTHWEST FROPA ALONG
WITH TEMPERATURES STEADILY FALLING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS COLD AIR
PROGRESSING INTO THE REGION DROPS OVERNIGHT LOWS TO AROUND 40 FOR
INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER. OVERNIGHT DEW POINT TEMPERATURES DROP TO
NEAR FREEZING, BUT FROST IS NOT A CONCERN AT THIS TIME DO TO WINDS
CONTINUING TO MIX IN THE LOW LEVEL THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT FRI MAY 30 2025
SATURDAY... MIDLEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGHING WILL HAVE ITS AXIS OVER
UPSTATE NEW YORK THIS SATURDAY WITH THE LEFT HAND SIDE ON TOP OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. ATMOSPHERICALLY DRY AND NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP SKIES CLEAR ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE
THIS SATURDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BUILD TO THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE
CWA BEFORE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES COOL RADIATIONALLY. PROBABILITIES
OF TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING REMAIN LOW, BUT POTENTIAL
PATCHY FROST REMAINS A RISK BECAUSE OF TEMPERATURES DIRECTLY OVER
THE SURFACE COULD BE COOLER THAN WHERE TEMPS ARE OBSERVED A FEW FEET
OFF THE GROUND.
SUNDAY... CONDITIONS REMAIN SIMILAR TO SATURDAY AS MIDLEVEL
TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS FROM
THE NORTH CONTINUE TO KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. OTHERWISE
WEATHER ON SUNDAY REMAINS COOL AND QUIET. NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME (NO OVERNIGHT FROST CONCERNS).
MONDAY... MIDLEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THIS
WEEKEND AND PROGRESSES TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AT THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. WARM AND MOIST AIR BEGINS TO ADVECT THIS
MONDAY, CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO BUILD WITH DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR 80
DEGREES.
TUESDAY... HOT AND HUMID WEATHER CONTINUES TO BUILD AS THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED RIDGE CENTERS IT AXIS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. PROBABILITY'S OF DAILY MAX TEMPERATURES SURGING ABOVE 80S
DEGREES ARE VERY LIKELY WITH LOW PROBS OF REACHING 90 FOR A FEW OF
THE TYPICALLY WARM PARTS OF THE CWA AIDED BY SLIGHT DOWNSLOPING
AFFECTS.
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY OUTLOOK... LONGWAVE RIDGING WILL REMAIN STRADDLED
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS THIS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
AN EMBEDDED TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH THE MIDWEST. THIS PATTERN
SUPPORTS MORE ACTIVE WEATHER NEXT WEEK AND SIGNALING SHOWER AND
STORM POTENTIAL. TOO EARLY TO ADVERTISE STRENGTH OR AMOUNTS, BUT
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS FEATURE WITH THE EXPECTATION OF WARM MOIST
AIR AHEAD PUSHING AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS INTO THE NORTHWOODS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 649 AM EDT FRI MAY 30 2025
VFR CONDITIONS MAINLY ANTICIPATED THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT.
CEILINGS WILL LOWER BKN050-080 TODAY AS A COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED -SHRA TRACK SOUTHWARD. CURRENT THINKING AND GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS TERMINALS STAY AT VFR, BUT IN THE EVENT OF A HEAVIER
SHOWER/STORM, VIS/CIGS MAY BE LOWER THAN ANTICIPATED. AN
ISOLATED TSRA CANNOT BE RULED THIS AFTERNOON, BUT IMPACTS AND
CONFIDENCE AT THE TERMINALS REMAIN LOW. WESTERLY WINDS TURN
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY, GUSTING INTO THE 20S FOR MOST. PATCHY
SMOKE TODAY, BUT NOT EXPECTING VIS RESTRICTIONS.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SJC
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...JLD
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