150
FXUS63 KAPX 302325
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
725 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND A BIT COOL WEEKEND (PERHAPS SOME PATCHY FROST EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING?)
- WARMING TREND KICKS OFF EARLY NEXT WEEK, EXPANDING MID-SUMMER
LIKE HEAT INTO THE NORTHWOODS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:
SHORTWAVE TROUGH, AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT, DROPPING SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON ON BACKSIDE OF DEEPENING NORTHEAST
NOAM GYRE. JUST ENOUGH FORCING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO
DRIVE A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THIS FRONT, WITH SHOWERS RAPIDLY ENDING IN
THE POST-FRONTAL RAPID DRYING ENVIRONMENT. PLUME OF SMOKE TIED TO
ONGOING CANADA WILDFIRES ALSO RUNNING JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT,
ALTHOUGH MAJORITY OF NEAR-SURFACE SMOKE PARTICULATE REMAINS WEST OF
THE BIG POND. NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES, WITH CURRENT READINGS IN
THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.
COLD FRONT EXITS SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING AS EXPANSIVE
AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THIS
CANADA ORIGINATED HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER
AS WE HEAD THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
SHOWER (STORM?) CONCERNS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY CLOUD
AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
DETAILS:
AS MENTIONED, COLD FRONT WILL EXIT OFF TO THE SOUTH EARLY ON THIS
EVENING, TAKING THE SHOWER THREAT AND PLUME OF SMOKE ALONG WITH IT.
STILL COULD SEE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIMITED
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN INSTABILITY CONTRIBUTIONS...BUT NOTHING SEVERE
EXPECTED. RAPID DRYING BEHIND THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, BRINGING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON SATURDAY. ENOUGH NORTH
WIND TONIGHT TO PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM REALLY TANKING, BUT STILL
LOOKING AT LOWS WELL DOWN INTO THE 40S...WITH SOME UPPER 30S EASILY
REACHABLE IN OUR TRADITIONAL ICE-BOX LOCATIONS. SATURDAY'S SUN WILL
DO ITS BEST TO OFFSET WHAT WILL BE A RATHER CHILLY END OF MAY
AIRMASS. LOOKING FOR HIGHS MOSTLY RANGING THROUGH THE 60S...
TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW SPECIFIC NORMAL
VALUES FOR MAY 31ST.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:
OVERHEAD HIGH PRESSURE TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL SLOWLY
WORK OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST, TAKING UP RESIDENCE ALONG THE EAST COAST
EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK. ITS MID/UPPER LEVEL PARENT EXPANDS OVERHEAD IN
ITS DEPARTURE, EVENTUALLY REPLACED BY SHORTWAVE TROUGHING AND A
SURFACE COLD FRONT HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
MAIN FOCUS ON TEMPERATURE TRENDS...INITIALLY HOW COLD WE GET
SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY WHAT LOOKS TO BE RATHER AGGRESSIVE
WARMING EARLY NEXT WEEK. MID-WEEK RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO NEED TO BE
ADDRESSED.
DETAILS:
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK RATHER IDEAL FOR AT LEAST A GOOD
NOCTURNAL TEMPERATURE RESPONSE SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BRINGS WITH IT A SEASONABLY CHILLY AIRMASS...ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND DRY CONDITIONS. MAY SEE JUST ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT ON
BACKSIDE OF WHAT SHOULD BE RATHER DEEP LOW PRESSURE ROTATING NORTH
INTO QUEBEC TO PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TO THEIR FULL
POTENTIAL. WITH THAT SAID, SHOULD EASILY SEE TEMPERATURES DIP INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 30S ACROSS MOST INTERIOR AREAS. IF WINDS DO
COMPLETELY DECOUPLE COULD EASILY SEE SOME AREAS BRIEFLY REACH THE
LOWER 30S BEFORE SUNRISE SUNDAY. SOMETHING DEFINITELY TO MONITOR
WITH THOSE WITH VULNERABLE VEGETATION.
STILL A BIT COOL AND SUNNY ON SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY WHAT SHOULD BE
MAINTENANCE OF DRY WEATHER AND AGGRESSIVE WARMING BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...THE LATTER BOLSTERED BY MATURING RETURN FLOW ON BACKSIDE
OF THAT EAST COAST HIGH PRESSURE. PATTERN RECOGNITION AND MID RANGE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT HIGHS BY TUESDAY REACHING WELL INTO
THE 80S ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN, WITH A BIT
COOLER READINGS NORTH OF THE BIG BRIDGE AND NEAR THOSE BIG BODIES OF
WATER. INCREASING THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HEADING INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO WORK INTO THE
REGION. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY A FEW
DEGREES COOLER, WITH THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT KEEPING READINGS A
BIT COOLER THURSDAY AS WELL.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 725 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2025
VFR. COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL ENTER NORTHERN MI ON NORTHERLY
BREEZES THIS WEEKEND. SOME -SHRA ARE SEEN IN THE APN AREA AT
THIS MOMENT, BUT THESE WILL SHORTLY MOVE OFF TO THE SE. SOME
HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES THRU THE WEEKEND.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MIZ016>018-
020>036-041-042-086>088-095>099.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...JZ
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