433
FXUS63 KAPX 260525
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
125 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN/STORM CHANCES RETURN LATE TONIGHT, LASTING AT TIMES
THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONGER STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF M-72 THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.
- LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE AT TIMES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: SOUTHEAST U.S. CENTERED HEAT DOME REMAINS
IN PLACE TODAY WITH MORE HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS EXPECTED TO BE
BROKEN IN PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC. NORTHERN MICHIGAN
LIES ON THE "COOLER" NORTHERN PERIPHERY WITH LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING
OVERHEAD. EXPANSIVE 1024MB HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER ONTARIO AIDING TO
BRING DRY NORTHEAST WINDS LOCALLY AND KEEPING MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
FOCUSED TO OUR SOUTH NEAR A STATIONARY BOUNDARY SITUATED DOWNSTATE
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. CHANGES ARE IN THE OFFING, HOWEVER, AS THAT
BOUNDARY GRADUALLY CLIMBS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
COMBINED WITH INCREASING LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND OCCASIONAL MID-
UPPER WAVES EJECTING LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL BRING A RETURN OF MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER LATER TONIGHT, AND AT TIMES, THROUGH FRIDAY.
FORECAST DETAILS: LOW CHANCES FOR A ROGUE SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON NEAR
THE M-55 CORRIDOR, MAINLY FROM MANISTEE TO CADILLAC WHERE DEEPER
MOISTURE INITIALLY POOLS AND BEGINNING STAGES OF INCREASED
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MEANWHILE, MORE
ROBUST SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED UPSTREAM ACROSS THE MID
AND UPPER MS VALLEY, WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY MAKE NORTHEASTWARD
PROGRESS TOWARD AND EVENTUALLY INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATER TONIGHT
AS THE LLJ VEERS WITH TIME AND BETTER FORCING ARRIVES LOCALLY.
INITIAL RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY ARRIVE BETWEEN 00-06Z ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.P. AND FAR NORTHWEST LOWER BEFORE THOSE CHANCES EXPAND
EASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST LOWER. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALSO
EXPECTED TO FOLD IN LATE TONIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA, LEADING TO AT LEAST LOW CHANCES FOR A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER.
SOME SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS PARTS
OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING -- MAINLY NORTHEAST LOWER AND PERHAPS
NEAR THE M-55 CORRIDOR CLOSER TO THAT NORTHWARD ADVANCING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. WHILE MANY AREAS SEE SOME DRY TIME DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY, ADDITIONAL SHOWER/STORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT. THE
LATTER OF THESE TWO TIME FRAMES IS ONE TO WATCH FOR AN ISOLATED
SEVERE STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT AS DEEP LAYER
SHEAR INCREASES TO GREATER THAN 40 KTS AND INSTABILITY BUILDS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
LIKELY IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS, AS WELL. BOTH OF THESE THREATS
HIGHLIGHTED BY SPC/WPC IN THEIR RESPECTIVE DAY 2 SEVERE WEATHER
OUTLOOK AND EXCESSIVE RAIN OUTLOOK.
LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2025
PATTERN FORECAST: LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO TREK ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE EXITING STAGE RIGHT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE TO FOLLOW, AT LEAST BRIEFLY, TO START THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER,
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURN AS EARLY SATURDAY
NIGHT - SUNDAY MORNING (UNLIKELY), BUT MORE SO LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST DETAILS: SOME SHOWERS/STORMS MAY LINGER FRIDAY WITH
UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW LONG THESE CHANCES LAST. CURRENT TRENDS
WOULD SUGGEST AT LEAST A LOW-END SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES
THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY, PRIMARY ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER WHERE
INSTABILITY LINGERS IN ADVANCE OF THE EASTWARD TRACKING SURFACE LOW.
BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA-
WIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE SAGS IN FROM THE NORTH. LITTLE CHANGE TO THIS
FOR SATURDAY WITH A BANNER SUMMER DAY THAT'S EXPECTED TO FEATURE
INCREASING SUNSHINE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID-70S
TO MID-80S AREA-WIDE.
WHILE CHANCES FOR ACTIVE WEATHER ARE LOW SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING, THEY'RE NOT ENTIRELY ZERO, AS POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR UPSTREAM
MCS DEVELOPMENT. SUPPOSE THERE'S A POSSIBILITY THAT IF THIS
DEVELOPMENT OCCURS, A DECAYING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX COULD MAKE A RUN
TOWARD NORTHERN MI. INCREASING HEAT/HUMIDITY EXPECTED SUNDAY ACROSS
THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO HELP SUPPORT HIGHER
CHANCES FOR MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS LATE SUNDAY INTO THE START
OF NEXT WEEK AS A DEEPER MID-LEVEL WAVE CARVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS. LOTS OF DETAILS TO SORT
OUT OVER THE COMING DAYS WITH RESPECT TO TIMING/COVERAGE OF
POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2025
AREA OF -RA TO PERHAPS RA CROSSING NORTHERN MI OVERNIGHT. A FEW
EMBEDDED TSRA BACK IN WI MAY APPROACH MBL AT LEAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE MAINLY VFR FOR A WHILE, BUT
CIGS EVENTUALLY LOWER TO MVFR AFTER SUNRISE. APN HAS THE BEST
CHANCE OF SEEING IFR CONDITIONS FOR PART OF THURSDAY, WITH LOWER
CIGS THANKS TO EAST WINDS OFF LK HURON.
EAST WINDS BECOMING INCREASINGLY BREEZY AT MOST SITES, WITH MBL
INSTEAD BECOMING MORE VARIABLE.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MJG
LONG TERM...MJG
AVIATION...MSB/JZ
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