099
FXUS63 KAPX 281101
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
701 AM EDT SAT JUN 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- GRADUALLY TURNING SUNNIER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TODAY
PRECEDE ANOTHER WARMUP SUNDAY.
- SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY,
PEAKING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
- TRENDING DRIER TUESDAY AND BEYOND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 227 AM EDT SAT JUN 28 2025
SURFACE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EVIDENT ON RADAR, WITH A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS / SMATTERINGS OF DRIZZLE EXITING TO THE EAST, WITH COOLER
AIR SPILLING INTO THE REGION. ASSOCIATED AREA OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD INTO ONTARIO, WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OF
THE WISCONSIN HIGHLANDS MOVING EASTWARD, SETTING THE STAGE FOR A
CLEARING TREND INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON ONCE SUBSIDENCE MOVES
OVERHEAD AND PESKY LOW LEVEL STRATUS GETS MIXED OUT. ANTICIPATING
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY AS GOOD CAA DRIVEN MIXING LEADS TO A
MODEST WNW TO NW BREEZE. COOLER AND MARKEDLY LESS HUMID CONDITIONS
FOR TODAY... WITH HIGHS LARGELY IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 70S FOR MOST,
AND LOWER 80S ALONG / SOUTH OF M-72.
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER
BUDDING AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS
(CURRENTLY DRIVING A ROBUST CONVECTIVE OUTBURST IN NORTH DAKOTA,
INCLUDING A COUPLE TORNADIC SUPERCELLS NEAR BISMARCK) INTERACTS WITH
DOMINANT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN US, AND THE
RESULTING PRESSURE GRADIENT RAMPS UP SOUTHWESTERLIES AND THE LLJ,
WHICH WILL FORCE THE COLD FRONT BACK NORTHWARD (AS A WARM FRONT).
THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER
SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT, WITH POTENTIAL FOR ROBUST
STORMS OVER MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN RIDING THIS FRONT TOWARD US.
CONSIDERING A WEAKER THERMAL GRADIENT IN THE AIRMASS OVERHEAD AND
LACKADAISICAL LAPSE RATES (SAY THAT TEN TIMES FAST), INSTABILITY WILL
BE IN QUITE THE SHORTAGE ACROSS THE REGION, WHICH MEANS THAT ANY
STORMS THAT MANAGE TO MAKE IT TO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS WILL BE ON A
DOWNWARD TREND THAT WILL ONLY INCREASE AS THE CONVECTIVE LEFTOVERS
REACH THE REGION. AS SUCH, A SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING FAVORING AREAS WEST OF I-75, BUT
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 227 AM EDT SAT JUN 28 2025
AFOREMENTIONED PASSING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY SET TO CLEAR THE AREA
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, SETTING THE STAGE FOR DEEPER MOISTURE
INTRUSION THROUGH CONTINUED WAA WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
APPROACHING SURFACE LOW FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOLLOWING THE
BRIEF MORNING SHOWER / STORM CHANCE, ANTICIPATION IS THAT WE TREND
DRIER, WARMER, AND QUITE A BIT MORE HUMID AS HIGHS SPIKE INTO THE
MID 80S TO LOWER 90S, WITH DEWPOINTS BALLOONING WELL INTO THE 60S TO
GIVE US A JUICED FEEL TO THE AIR. WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW LAKE BREEZE
PROCESSES EVOLVE SUNDAY... LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE DOES HAVE US WARM
ENOUGH TO BREACH OUR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES, BUT WITH ANEMIC
SYNOPTIC FORCING LIMITING INITIATION, SO WHILE THERE ARE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY, DETAILS REMAIN RATHER
MURKY AT THIS TIME.
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL LIKELY COME FROM UPSTREAM SUNDAY EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES WHILE THE PLAINS
SURFACE LOW MOVES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. EXCELLENT INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS IN PLACE OVER WISCONSIN SUPPORT AMPLE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL, BUT AS IS TRADITION HERE IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN, THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING INTO A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT OVER US WITH
LESS SHEAR, LESSENED MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AND LESSER
INSTABILITY, SO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS SHOULD TAPER
CONSIDERABLY AFTER SUNSET. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST SPC
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY, WHICH HAS THE GREATER CHANCES FOR
SEVERE OVER WISCONSIN, TRENDING DOWN TO A MARGINAL RISK OVER NW
LOWER AND GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS POINTS EAST, MIRRORING
THAT WEAKENING TREND. SURFACE LOW WILL GRADUALLY FORCE THE COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY FAVORING THE
SAGINAW BAY AREA, AS THAT WILL BE WHERE BEST INSTABILITY LIES.
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, GUIDANCE REMAINS PESSIMISTIC
TOWARD RAIN CHANCES, WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVERHEAD AND LEADING TO A STRETCH OF DRIER AND MUCH MORE
SEASONABLE WEATHER... WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT SAT JUN 28 2025
A WIDE MIX OF CONDITIONS OUT THERE PRESENTLY, IFR (CIU) TO VFR
(MBL). COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY PUSH INTO THE REGION
TODAY. CIGS WILL CLIMB THIS MORNING, AND MBL/TVC/APN SHOULD BE
VFR BY 12Z. PLN/CIU WILL TAKE LONGER, LATE MORNING OR EVEN
MIDDAY. BUT ALL SITES LOOK VFR AFTER THAT.
BREEZY NW WINDS, THOUGH LIGHTER AT TVC/MBL.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 659 AM EDT SAT JUN 28 2025
AVIATION CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN DETERIORATING EARLY THIS MORNING,
WITH IFR CIGS AND SOME -DZ DEVELOPING SOUTH INTO PARTS OF
NORTHERN LOWER MI. HOWEVER, A CLEARING LINE IS MAKING SE-WARD
PROGRESS ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MI. THIS WILL REACH MBL/TVC IN THE
NEXT 2 HOURS, AND PLN SOON AFTER, BRINGING THEM VFR CONDITIONS.
FURTHER N/E, APN WILL BE MVFR THIS MORNING, THEN VFR. CIU WILL
BE IFR THIS MORNING, THEN VFR.
SOMEWHAT BREEZY WNW WINDS, A BIT GUSTIER AT CIU/PLN/APN.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HAD
LONG TERM...HAD
AVIATION...JZ
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