055
FXUS63 KAPX 201707
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
107 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FOG TONIGHT AS RAIN CLEARS OUT
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH MID WEEK
- HUMIDITY AND SHOWER CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 208 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2025
CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW MOST RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF NORTHERN
MI THIS MORNING. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS SILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN LOWER
AND EASTERN UPPER. LIGHT WINDS AND LINGERING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PATCHY FOG OVER NORTHERN MI THIS MORNING. CURRENT
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DO NOT SHOW REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES, HOWEVER
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT THIS MORNING (WHICH WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP AND RHS TO RISE). NORTHWEST WINDS WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE MID TO HIGH 70S TODAY.
AS DRIER AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN SETTLES IN OVER MI, IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES COULD DIP INTO THE HIGH 40S FOR SOME OF THE COOLER
INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND PARTS OF THE EASTERN U.P.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 208 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2025
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD NORTH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. MONDAY,
INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT OVER MI. A WARMING TREND WILL BE SEEN, WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE HIGH 80S AND LOW 90S BY
WEDNESDAY (WHEN THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND FALLS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION). DEEP GULF MOISTURE WILL EXIST UNDER THIS RIDGE (PWATS
UP TO 2"), WHICH WILL MAKE ITS WAY OVER MI BY MID WEEK. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SHOW THE PWAT MEAN BY WED AT 1.8" WITH A SPREAD BETWEEN
1.5" AND 2". THIS MOIST AIRMASS COULD LINGER OVER MI FOR A FEW DAYS
BEFORE ENOUGH FORCING MOVES THROUGH TO INITIATE WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SCOURING THINGS OUT ON THE BACK END. THERE COULD
BE SOME MESOSCALE FEATURES THAT ESTABLISH TO OUR WEST AND MOVE OVER
MI, HOWEVER GUIDANCE SHOWS MORE OF AN AIRMASS TSTORM STATE FOR
WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL FINALLY RIDE OVER THE
UPPER RIDGE FRIDAY, CREATING WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WITH POST FRONTAL CLEARING FOR THIS NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 106 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2025
HIGH PRESSURE TO LEAD TO QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SMOKE ALOFT COULD REDUCE VISBYS TO MVFR AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. A
FEW AFTERNOON CU (BASES AROUND 5KFT) TODAY...REDEVELOP AGAIN MON
MORNING/MIDDAY. HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT, THOUGH...WHICH COULD RAPIDLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS
FROM VFR TO IFR/LIFR, ESP AFTER 4-6Z THROUGH 11-12Z. NNW BACKGROUND
FLOW TODAY AROUND 5-10KTS BUT SOME LOCALIZED ONSHORE BREEZES
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT
WITH OFFSHORE WINDS POSSIBLE...BEFORE SHIFTING TO MORE E/ESE AROUND
5-10KTS AGAIN MONDAY.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ELD
LONG TERM...ELD
AVIATION...FEF
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