757
FXUS63 KAPX 201938
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
338 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT/MONDAY.
- INCREASING PRECIPITATION THREAT HEADING INTO MIDWEEK...
- ...ALONG WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY STARTING WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: EXTENSIVE RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CONUS THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...CLOSED UPPER ANTICYCLONE
ALONG THE MISSOURI/ARKANSAS BORDER WITH A BIT OF AN UPPER LEVEL
CIRCULATION STUCK BENEATH THIS FEATURE PROPAGATING WEST ON THE TEXAS
COASTLINE. SPLIT TROUGHING OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH THE
CONFLUENCE AXIS BETWEEN THESE TWO STREAMS LYING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
WITH SOME TROUGHINESS OVER EASTERN CANADA/NEW ENGLAND. DRIER AIR
SPILLING INTO THE UPPER LAKES THIS AFTERNOON DEEP LAYER NORTHERN
FLOW...PRECIPITABLE WATER OFF THE 12Z APX SOUNDING CUT IN HALF FROM
24 HOURS PRIOR (0.59 INCH). AT THE SURFACE...BROAD 1019MB SURFACE
HIGH ENCOMPASSES SOUTHERN MANITOBA/NORTHERN ONTARIO/UPPER GREAT
LAKES...A COLD FRONT LIES TO THE EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO SOUTHERN
QUEBEC. NORTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW HAS BROUGHT DEW POINTS BACK
DOWN INTO THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 70S
EXCEPT AROUND AND DOWNWIND OF WHITEFISH BAY. SOME DIURNAL CU POPPED
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THICKER HIGHER CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF LOWER MICHIGAN. NARROW BAND OF WILDFIRE SMOKE DRIFTING SOUTHWARD
AS WELL...BUT AS OF MID AFTERNOON BACK EDGE HAD LARGELY CLEARED
UPPER MICHIGAN THOUGH STILL SOME THROUGH THE STRAITS EAST ACROSS
DRUMMOND ISLAND.
SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN
IN PLACE MONDAY...ALONG WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING JUST UPSTREAM OF
MICHIGAN.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT/MONDAY: FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE NEAR TERM ARE
PRETTY MINIMAL. CONTINUING CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST COULD PUSH SOME REMNANT HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA...COULD ALSO SEE SOME FOG IN THE WHITEFISH BAY VICINITY
OVERNIGHT. WISPS OF NEAR SURFACE SMOKE SHOULD WAFT OUT OF NORTHERN
MICHIGAN TONIGHT. BUT OUTSIDE OF THAT MONDAY LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER
NICE AFTERNOON...ADDING ON A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR TOMORROW'S
HIGHS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2025
DAYS 2-3 (TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY): SOUTHERN CONUS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED THIS WEEK DOWNSTREAM OF ABOVE MENTIONED SPLIT
WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN TROUGH. UPPER HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...500MB HEIGHTS AT THE CENTER
POSSIBLY IN THE 596DAM RANGE BY WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH MOVING INTO
NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP IN
EARNEST...WHICH WILL BRING THE HUMIDITY LEVELS BACK UP BUT PROBABLY
NOT IN EARNEST UNTIL WEDNESDAY BUT WHICH COINCIDES WITH THE WARMEST
PERIOD THIS WEEK. WARMEST AREAS MOST LIKELY WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY (MOST LIKELY TO BE
AWAY FROM POTENTIAL CONVECTION)...MOST OF NORTHERN LOWER HAS
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING 90F WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ABOVE 50
PERCENT...THOUGH THAT WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.
SPEAKING OF WHICH...UPPER MICHIGAN WILL BE NEAR/IN THE POTENTIAL MCS
CORRIDOR STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT SO WILL HAVE IN INCREASE IN POPS
NORTH OF THE M-72 CORRIDOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
DAY 3 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK MARGINAL RISK SPANS THE U.P.
DAYS 4-5 (THURSDAY-FRIDAY): PROBABILITIES FOR EXCEEDING 90F THURSDAY
AFTERNOON ARE ABOVE 75 PERCENT ROUGHLY EAST OF A LINE FROM MBL-
APN...BUT COULD BE MORE INTERESTING FROM A RAINFALL THREAT WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK BOUNDARY TO LAY OUT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
BUT THIS MAY ALSO END UP A MORE OF A DIURNAL ISSUE WITH PLENTY OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR NORTHERN LOWER TO WARM UP (BUT ANOTHER HEAVY RAIN
THREAT GIVEN THE WARM/HUMID AIR MASS). POTENTIAL WBGTS IN THE MID
80S WHICH WILL PRETTY EXCESSIVE AND IF THINGS PAN OUT WILL BE
FLIRTING WITH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA SO WILL CONTINUE TO MESSAGE THE
HOT WEATHER FOR THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY MIDWEEK PERIOD. COULD BE A
PERIOD OF MODERATION FRIDAY IF A PASSING RIPPLE IN THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW CAN NUDGE THE FRONT INTO SOUTHERN LOWER.
DAYS 6-7 OUTLOOK (SATURDAY-SUNDAY): PATTERN STILL LOOKS WARM FOR
NEXT WEEKEND...6-10 DAY OUTLOOK SHOWING HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE FRIDAY-MONDAY TIME FRAME. LOTS OF
ANNOYING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND...
TRENDED THEM DOWN FOR SATURDAY LOOKING FOR A MORE ROBUST
PRECIPITATION SIGNAL.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 106 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2025
HIGH PRESSURE TO LEAD TO QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SMOKE ALOFT COULD REDUCE VISBYS TO MVFR AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. A
FEW AFTERNOON CU (BASES AROUND 5KFT) TODAY...REDEVELOP AGAIN MON
MORNING/MIDDAY. HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT, THOUGH...WHICH COULD RAPIDLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS
FROM VFR TO IFR/LIFR, ESP AFTER 4-6Z THROUGH 11-12Z. NNW BACKGROUND
FLOW TODAY AROUND 5-10KTS BUT SOME LOCALIZED ONSHORE BREEZES
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT
WITH OFFSHORE WINDS POSSIBLE...BEFORE SHIFTING TO MORE E/ESE AROUND
5-10KTS AGAIN MONDAY.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...JPB
AVIATION...FEF
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