862
FXUS63 KAPX 211732
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
132 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO
THE 90S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
- HUMIDITY AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS RETURN WEDNESDAY. BEST
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS IS THURSDAY
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 217 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE NORTHERN MI TODAY.
LITTLE AMPLIFICATION EXISTS IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TODAY, AND AS
A RESULT THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE ABLE TO SLIDE OVER
LK HURON. CALM WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME EASTERLY AROUND MID DAY.
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL PUSH OVER NE LOWER, KEEPING
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO THE HIGH 70S ELSEWHERE. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR,
WITH AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPING OVER A FEW PLACES. WITH LITTLE FORCING
OVERHEAD, LAKE BREEZES WILL LIKELY FORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WITH THE LK HURON LAKE BREEZE PUSHING PAST I-75 (IT HAS A
LITTLE HELP THANKS TO THE SURFACE HIGH). OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S TONIGHT, WITH SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS OF NE
LOWER POSSIBLY SEEING LOWS DIP INTO THE HIGH 40S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 217 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2025
THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL LAND OVER OH/PA TUESDAY. DRIER
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW OVER THE LOWER PENISULA AS SURFACE WINDS
ARE S/SE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL ESTABLISH
A ZONAL JET OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. VERY HIGH AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE
WILL BE PRESENT UNDER THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE (PWATS UP TO 2").
ALL OF THIS MOISTURE IS PUMPED UP TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY.
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY INITIATE THERE, WITH STORMS DRIFTING INTO WI
LATE TUESDAY. EARLY WEDNESDAY, GLOBAL GUIDANCE AGREES ON A NE
MOVEMENT OF THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE. HEIGHTS ALOFT INCREASE,
LEADING TO TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 90S FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. HOWEVER, THIS TREND WOULD SHIFT STORMS UP TOWARDS THE U.P.
AND LIKELY KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER EASTERN
UPPER, NEAR THE TIP OF THE MITT, AND PARTS OF LK MI FOR WEDNESDAY.
THE UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD THURSDAY, ALLOWING FOR A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY TO MOVE OVER MI. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LIKELY WHEN THIS OCCURS. THE EXACT TIMING
IS SILL UP FOR DEBATE, HOWEVER IT WILL LIKELY OCCUR SOMETIME ON
THURSDAY. THE BOUNDARY MOVES IN DRIER AIR, WHICH HELPS GET
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE 80S FOR FRIDAY AND THIS WEEKEND.
THE MAIN HAZARD WITH STORMS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE HEAVY RAIN. THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE VERY MOIST (MEAN ENSEMBLE PWATS REMAIN AROUND
1.85") WITH A WCL OF AROUND 10 TO 12 KFT. AS THE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES AND UPPER HEIGHTS (AND TEMPS) LOWER THURSDAY, INSTABILITY
STARTS TO JUMP. DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO MOVE IN, INTRODUCING MORE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, HAIL, AND STRONG OUTFLOW WIND POTENTIAL. AGAIN,
THESE CHANCES ARE FOR STORMS THAT FORM THURSDAY (WHICH WILL LIKELY
BE ALONG THE BOUNDARY ONCE IT MOVES THROUGH).
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2025
CLOUD BASES THROUGH REST OF THE AFTERNOON (AND REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD) SHOULD REMAIN VFR, BUT COULD TOUCH 3KFT ON OCCASION.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD STAY
DRY THROUGH TONIGHT. NON-ZERO CHANCE UPSTREAM SHOWER ACTIVITY
TRIES TO SCRAPE CIU GOING INTO TUESDAY AM BUT NOT CONFIDENT IN
THIS ATTM...AND COULD SEE A FEW 3-5KFT CLOUD BASES DURING THIS
TIME. WINDS GENERALLY EASTERLY TODAY AROUND 5-10KT BUT COULD
GUST AROUND 15KTS...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.
HOWEVER, WATCHING POTENTIAL FOR A 20- 25KT LLJ AROUND 2KFT AT
TVC/MBL OVERNIGHT. WINDS TURN SOUTH/SSE TUESDAY MORNING 5-10KTS.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ELD
LONG TERM...ELD
AVIATION...FEF
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