978
FXUS63 KAPX 230507
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
107 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING TREND AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 80S AND 90S WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
- A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE STARTING EARLY
WEDNESDAY AND LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 203 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: WELL-ADVERTISED UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES
TO BUILD ACROSS THE NATION'S MIDSECTION TODAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. FOCUS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY REVOLVES AROUND ANY POTENTIAL SHORTWAVES ROUNDING
THE CREST OF THAT RIDGE AND AN INCREASINGLY STRETCHED OUT BOUNDARY
THAT'S EXPECTED TO BE SITUATED UPSTREAM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER MS VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THAT BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGS
TOWARD AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS NORTHERN MI LATER THURSDAY.
FORECAST DETAILS: LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID-80S. INLAND PENETRATING LAKE BREEZES
KEEPING THOSE NEAR THE LAKESHORES A TOUCH COOLER.
INITIAL SHOWER/STORM CHANCES (ALBEIT LOW) ARRIVE AS EARLY AS LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN U.P. AS DEEP MOISTURE BEGINS TO
FOLD IN FROM THE WEST EVIDENCED BY PWATS PROGGED GREATER THAN 1.50"
NORTH OF THE BRIDGE BY 06Z. TONIGHT'S POTENTIAL CONVECTION LARGELY
HINGES ON EVOLUTION OF UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT, AND WHILE THERE'S A
SCENARIO THAT SCRAPES PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER WITH SOME STORMS AFTER
06-09Z, THINK THERE'S HIGHER LIKELIHOOD THAT THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA REMAINS DRY WITH CONVECTION FOCUSED TO OUR NORTHWEST COINCIDING
WELL WITH THE THETA-E RIDGE AND INSTABILITY GRADIENT.
FOR WEDNESDAY, AGAIN FEEL THAT THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD AND CURRENT
CONFIDENCE LIES IN A SOLUTION THAT KEEPS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA DRY DESPITE INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY. BEST CHANCE
FOR POTENTIAL WAVES OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.P.
TIED CLOSER TO THAT SLOWLY APPROACHING UPSTREAM BOUNDARY AND MID-
LEVEL SUPPORT FROM ANY CONVECTIVELY AIDED SHORTWAVES. ANY OF THIS
CONVECTION COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS THE
PRIMARY THREAT. THAT SAID, THE POTENTIAL WRENCH THROWN INTO THIS
FAVORED SOLUTION IS THAT IF CONVECTION FIRES OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN WI
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, WHICH COULD MAKE A RUN IN DECAYING FASHION
INTO NORTHWEST LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SCENARIO WOULD
ALSO JEOPARDIZE ADVERTISED INCREASING HEAT WITH TEMPERATURES A
HANDFUL OF DEGREES COOLER OWING TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER/POTENTIAL
PRECIP. ASSUMING THIS DOESN'T COME TO FRUITION, TEMPS CLIMBING INTO
THE UPPER 80S WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE 90S EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN LOWER.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 203 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2025
PATTERN FORECAST: BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO BE SLOWLY LOWERING IN ADVANCE OF A SHALLOW UPPER
WAVE THAT'LL EVENTUALLY AID IN PUSHING THAT UPSTREAM BOUNDARY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN MI LATER THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT. CONTINUED HEAT/HUMIDITY ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE FOUND IN ADVANCE OF AND ALONG THAT INCOMING
BOUNDARY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AT LEAST BRIEFLY SETTLES IN BEYOND
THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER, OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF ACTIVE WEATHER LOOK
POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
MID-UPPER LEVEL HEAT DOME BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL U.S.
WITH AN ACTIVE PATTERN ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER OF THE CONUS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA.
FORECAST DETAILS: STILL LOWER THAN DESIRED CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A MYRIAD OF POSSIBLE
SOLUTIONS STILL ON THE TABLE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, CHANCES EXIST FOR REPEATED ROUNDS OF CONVECTION
ACROSS THE U.P./STRAITS, ALONG WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER NORTHERN LOWER IN AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY CONTINUED INCREASING MOISTURE (PWS APPROACHING
2.00" NEAR AND NORTH OF THE BRIDGE) ALONG WITH INCREASED
INSTABILITY. A NON-ZERO SEVERE THREAT EXISTS IF ANY STORMS DO FIRE
WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING ALL SEVERE HAZARDS POSSIBLE. ONCE
AGAIN, A LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN/LOW-END FLOODING THREAT EXISTS
(ESPECIALLY EASTERN UPPER) IN WHAT SHOULD BE VERY EFFICIENT WARM
RAIN PROCESSES WITH LOCALLY TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS LIKELY IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF AND ALONG THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PWS INCREASE
TO ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX OVER NORTHERN LOWER THURSDAY AFTERNOON
(ENSEMBLE MEANS NEARING 1.90") LENDING CREDENCE TO A CONTINUED
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT. SPC DAY 3 SWO PAINTS A MARGINAL RISK
ACROSS ALL OF THE LOWER PENINSULA WITH SEEMINGLY AT LEAST LOW
PROBABILITY FOR ALL SEVERE HAZARDS. WHILE SOME CONCERN EXISTS THAT
ANY EARLY DAY CONVECTION MAY LIMIT MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING
POTENTIAL, A VERY HUMID DAY NONETHELESS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW-
MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS FAVORED TO RANGE FROM NEAR 80 ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.P. AND FROM THE MID-80S TO MID-90S OVER NORTHERN LOWER. HEAT
INDICES INTO THE 90S ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER WITH LOW 100S POSSIBLE
EAST OF I-75.
A SOMEWHAT "COOLER" DAY ANTICIPATED FRIDAY WITH PRIMARILY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF ACTIVE
WEATHER POSSIBLE AS AN ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO SET UP ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF BUILDING HEAT DOME TO OUR SOUTH.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 104 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2025
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS MORNING. BY
LATER IN THE DAY, SHRA AND TSRA CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING,
ESPECIALLY FOR CIU. BRIEF RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT
PREVAILING VFR IS PROBABLY STILL THE WAY TO GO AT LEAST FOR NOW.
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTH TONIGHT.
WINDS BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TODAY, GOING
LIGHT AGAIN TONIGHT. OF COURSE, ANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR LHZ348.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR LMZ341-344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR LMZ342.
SHORT TERM...MJG
LONG TERM...MJG
AVIATION...MSB
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