743
FXUS63 KAPX 230638
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
238 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY OVER EASTERN UPPER AND
NEAR THE TIP OF THE MITT AND THIS EVENING/TONIGHT OVER
NORTHERN LOWER
- A FEW STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING
- HOT AND HUMID TEMPERATURES TODAY AND THURSDAY
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE THURSDAY. MAIN THREAT
IS TRAINING STORMS LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLOODING, A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE WINDS ALSO EXISTS
- SOMEWHAT OF AN ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH END OF THE
MONTH
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2025
00Z NORTHERN PLAINS RAOBS SHOW AROUND 1.8" PWATS THIS EVENING, WITH
AROUND 1.6" OVER NORTHERN MI. A VERY MOIST AND WARM AIRMASS HAS MADE
ITS WAY NORTHWARD, WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS REACHING INTO THE HIGH 70S
OVER PARTS OF MN/WI. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ARRIVES OVER MN, THE
DAKOTAS, AND THE WESTERN U.P LATER THIS MORNING (CURRENTLY SITS A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH). A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE IS DOMINATING
THE MIDWEST US, WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION BELOW IT AND AROUND IT. A
FEW LEE SIDE LOWS OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH IN THE MID TO LOW LEVELS IS
CONTRIBUTING TO THE 1.8" TO 2" PWATS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS. A 1023MB SURFACE HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL STRENGTHEN THIS
MORNING AND REINFORCE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS OVER NORTHERN LOWER,
AS WELL AS SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR NEAR THE SURFACE. THIS FEATURE
WILL HOLD OFF SHOWER CHANCES UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOR
MOST OF NORTHERN LOWER. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO INITIATE OFF OF THE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY TODAY, WITH CHANCES FOR SOME STORMS MOVING
ACROSS THE U.P. TOWARDS THE EASTERN HALF (WHERE THE STEERING FLOW IS
DIRECTING THEM TO) AROUND MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HAZARDS
WITH THESE STORMS ARE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. SKIES OVER NORTHERN
LOWER WILL LIKELY PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AS BLOW OFF FROM
CONVECTION TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST WILL MOVE OVERHEAD. THIS
WILL HELP TO KEEP AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. IT WILL STILL FEEL HOT, AS THE AIR WILL BECOME
VERY MUGGY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND STRENGTHEN TODAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 30
MPH.
SOME SHOWERS FROM WI COULD MIGRATE OVER LK MI MIDDAY THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, HOWEVER FEATURES OVER NORTHERN MI WILL NOT BE
ALIGNED YET TO PRODUCE AN IDEAL ENVIRONMENT FOR SUSTAINING AND
ORGANIZING CONVECTION TO PRODUCE LIGHTNING, TORRENTIAL RAIN, OR
DAMAGING WINDS. GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN THE ENVIRONMENT OVER NW LOWER
IMPROVE AFTER 00Z THURSDAY FOR THE LAST COUPLE DAYS NOW. THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST, HOWEVER OUTFLOWS
AND OTHER PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW FROM CONVECTION UP STREAM WILL
HELP GENERATE ROUNDS OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER NW LOWER, THE TIP OF
THE MITT, AND EASTERN UPPER WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS COULD ALSO BE SEEN AS STORMS THAT ARE ALREADY
ORGANIZED MOVING ACROSS LK MI INTO MI. OF THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS, A FEW WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO ORGANIZE AND PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HEAVY RAIN (EVEN TORRENTIAL RAIN WITH STRONGEST
STORMS) WILL BE SEEN WITH MOST STORMS. STORMS WILL BE MOVING, SO
FLOODING CONCERNS WILL BE IF THERE IS TRAINING (COULD BE OVER
EASTERN UPPER). BRIEF PONDING OF WATER WILL BE LIKELY UNDER MOST
STRONGER STORMS. MUGGY AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT (OVERNIGHT LOWERS REMAINING IN THE HIGH 60S AND LOW
70S).
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2025
THURSDAY, A SHALLOW UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND BEGIN TO ADVANCE THE BOUNDARY. THIS WAVE WILL ATTEMPT TO
SUPPRESS THE UPPER HIGH, HOWEVER WINDS AND TEMP ADVECTION SIGNALS IN
GUIDANCE HINT AT THE UPPER HIGH SLOWING THE PROGRESSION OF THE WAVE
AND BOUNDARY DOWN AS IT MOVES ACROSS MI. IF THIS BOUNDARY SLOWS,
SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD BEGIN TO TRAIN AND RESULT IN FLOODING
CONCERNS FOR PARTS OF NW LOWER. CAMS ARE PROGRESSING THE BOUNDARY AT
A DECENT SPEED (REACHING SOUTHERN MI BY 00Z FRI), HOWEVER CONVECTION
ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL STRENGTHEN ITS TENDENCY FOR FORWARD
PROGRESSION. GLOBAL ENSEMBLES DO SHOW 6 HOUR QPF HANGING ON THROUGH
LATE THURS INTO EARLY FRIDAY IN GLADWIN CO. LOTS OF THIS WILL HAVE
TO DO WITH HOW CONVECTION FORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY, SO ITS HARD TO
NAIL DOWN DETAILS FOR THURSDAY AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER LOW CHANCES
COULD EXIST FOR A SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY ALONG NORTHERN LOWER THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO REACH WELL INTO THE 80S AGAIN AND
EVEN 90S FOR A FEW SPOTS THURSDAY. IF WE HAVE CLOUD COVER IT COULD
SUPPRESS TEMPERATURES BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES, HOWEVER WITH LITTLE RECOVERY
FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHT - THURSDAY WILL FEEL HOT.
THE LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MEANDER AROUND THE MIDWEST
U.S. AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND QUICKLY, WITH
ON AND OFF SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 104 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2025
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS MORNING. BY
LATER IN THE DAY, SHRA AND TSRA CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING,
ESPECIALLY FOR CIU. BRIEF RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT
PREVAILING VFR IS PROBABLY STILL THE WAY TO GO AT LEAST FOR NOW.
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTH TONIGHT.
WINDS BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TODAY, GOING
LIGHT AGAIN TONIGHT. OF COURSE, ANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR LHZ348.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ341-
344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ342.
SHORT TERM...ELD
LONG TERM...ELD
AVIATION...MSB
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