099
FXUS63 KAPX 240648
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
248 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND HUMID TODAY OVER NE LOWER, ESPECIALLY IN GLADWIN,
ARENAC, AND IOSCO COUNTIES
- CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE MAIN HAZARDS
WITH STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN, LIGHTNING, AN DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.
- A BRIEF COOL DOWN BACK INTO THE HIGH 70S AND 80S FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, THEN HEAT RETURNS SUN AND MON
- ON AND OFF SHOWERS AND STORM CHANCES THROUGH END OF THE MONTH
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 244 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2025
CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW MOST WINDS HAVE RETURNS TO
SOUTHERLY OVER NORTHERN MI THIS MORNING AS AN MCS DISSIPATES WITH
THE REMNANTS EXITING TO THE NORTH AND EAST. DEW POINTS IN THE MID
TO HIGH 60S WILL KEEP CLIMBING THIS MORNING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S
AS THE AXIS OF DEEPEST MOISTURE MOVES OVER MI TODAY. THIS MOISTURE
SURGE HAS BEEN ROTATING AROUND A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH
IS HAS BEEN MEANDERING OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S.
CYCLOGENESIS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ONTARIO CAN HAS HELPED BETTER DEFINE
A COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHES ACROSS LK SUPERIOR TOWARDS NORTHERN WI
AND SOUTHERN MN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO MN AND LK
SUPERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THE BOUNDARY TO THE SE ACROSS MI
TODAY. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER LEVELS, PAIRED WITH A
TREND OF DECREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT LEADS TO AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
(ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS THAT WARM WELL INTO THE 90S) LATER THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. SHEAR IN THE MID AND LOWER LEVELS IS
MODEST, HOWEVER SLIGHTLY BETTER SHEAR IN THE MID LEVELS EXISTS TODAY
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY - WHICH MEANS DISCRETE STORMS COULD BECOME
ORGANIZED. THE MAIN WINDOW WILL BE THE MID MORNING HOURS TO THE
MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR THE BEST CHANCES WITH SEVERE STORMS.
THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN, LIGHTNING, AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. AS THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA, REPEATED ROUNDS
OF HEAVY RAIN COULD BE SEEN OVER SOME AREAS. IF SEEN, THIS COULD
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW SPOTS AND HILLY TERRAIN.
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN TODAY. THE HOTTEST
TEMPERATUERS WILL LIKELY BE IN GLADWIN, ARENAC, AND IOSCO COUNTIES -
AS A MESO-SCALE BOUNDARY FROM THE MCS LAST EVENING FORMED JUST TO
THE NORTH THESE AREAS, LEAVING THEM UNTOUCHED. NE LOWER WILL ALSO
NOT BE IMPACTED BY THE APPROACHING FRONT BEFORE PEAK HEATING. HEAT
INDICES REACHING INTO THE HIGH 90S AND LOW 100S WILL LIKELY BE SEEN
OVER THE COUNTIES ADJACENT TO SAGINAW BAY THIS AFTERNOON. THE ONE
CAVEAT TO THIS IS IF THE BOUNDARY PROGRESSES QUICKER THAN
ANTICIPATED AND CLOUD COVER REACHES THESE SPOTS BEFORE PEAK HEATING.
HOWEVER, WITH THE HUMIDITY CONDITIONS WILL STILL FEEL HOT TODAY
WHETHER HEAT INDICES ARE IN THE LOW 90S OR HIGH 90S.
UNCERTAINTY: THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT COVERAGE OF STORMS
AND THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY TODAY. CAMS DEPICT EITHER MOSTLY
DISCRETE OR MULTI CELL CLUSTERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY BUT KEEP COVERAGE
ISOLATED OR SCATTERED. THE BOUNDARY WILL BE WEAK AND WASHED OUT,
POSSIBLY SLOWING DOWN OVER NORTHERN AS IT BATTLES WITH SOUTHERLIES
TO THE SOUTH. THE LACK OF UNIFORM FORCING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LESS
COVERAGE, HOWEVER STORM OUTFLOWS COULD SUBSTITUTE FOR THIS.
NONETHELESS, THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY LAND OVER NE LOWER -
AS THE BOUNDARY WILL BE ORIENTATED SW/NE - AND LEAD TO THE BEST
CHANCES FOR STORMS HERE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 244 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY, LEADING TO TEMPERATURES
COOLING BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES AND A BRIEF RELIEF FROM THE HUMIDITY. A
SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/ROCKIES TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. SHOWERS AND STORM CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY. BU
SUNDAY, THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS MIGRATED BACK TO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND RETURNS TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE HIGH 80S. ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THEY ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER
HIGH AND OVER MI THROUGH MID WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 118 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2025
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THIS TAF PERIOD...SPECIFICALLY WITH
REGARDS TO CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION AND IMPACTS OF THESE STORMS ON
THE TAF LOCATION. MVFR TO IFR PRODUCING CLOUDS EXPECTED AT KCIU
MUCH OF TODAY, ALONG WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY SOUTH OF THE BRIDGE. LIKELY TO SEE A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS BUILD INTO KPLN THIS MORNING BEFORE MIXING
OUT. OTHERWISE, LOOKING AT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF ANY
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY AT THE OTHER TAF LOCATIONS...WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS BRIEFLY PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS, VIS-RESTRICTING
RAINS, AND LOWER CIGS. SOMEWHAT GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS
OTHERWISE. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED AS WE HEAD THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR MIZ036-041-042.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR LHZ349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LMZ341-344>346.
SHORT TERM...ELD
LONG TERM...ELD
AVIATION...MSB
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