804
FXUS63 KAPX 250241
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1041 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
-SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN. SEVERE STORMS AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
POSSIBLE, WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING AS PRIMARY
HAZARDS.
-COOLER AND DRIER WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE INTO
FRIDAY.
-SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES SATURDAY, WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND
WARM TEMPERATURES SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 219 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2025
CURRENT OVERVIEW / PATTERN SYNOPSIS:
DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING NORTHERN MICHIGAN FROM THE NW,
WITH AN IMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE RESPONSE ZIPPING ACROSS THE TIP OF THE
MITT THIS MORNING, LEADING TO AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BEING DRAPED
ACROSS NW LOWER IN ITS WAKE. ANTICIPATING STORM COVERAGE TO ONLY
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY MAXIMIZES. THE FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER MINNESOTA FORCES IN A COOLER AIRMASS FROM
THE NORTHWEST AND CONVECTIVE PROCESSES DRIVE THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH
AND EAST. COOLER AND LESS MOIST AIR WILL SETTLE IN TONIGHT, LEADING
TO A MUCH MORE CALM DAY ON FRIDAY.
FORECAST SUMMARY:
ONGOING ROBUST CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN LOWER WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST WITH TIME AS THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH AND EAST. SUBTLE WARM NOSE ALOFT OVER CENTRAL
MICHIGAN SUGGESTS THAT STORM COVERAGE WILL FAVOR NORTHEAST LOWER,
RIDING A SUBTLE INSTABILITY GRADIENT INTO THAT NECK OF THE WOODS.
PWATS APPROACHING 2.00" AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ECHO TRAINING WILL
CONTINUE THE RISK FOR TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WITH THESE STORMS INTO
NORTHEAST LOWER... WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING FOR SOMEONE TO BAG 3.00"+
OF RAINFALL BY THE TIME ALL IS SAID AND DONE THIS EVENING. AS FAR AS
SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL GOES... FAVORABLE INGREDIENTS WILL GENERALLY
MOVE TO THE EAST, WITH AMPLE CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS INTRODUCING
SOME CAPPING WITH TIME. THE SOUTH AND EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THESE
STORMS REMAINS IN QUESTION, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF M-32. NONETHELESS,
WITH AMPLE SHEAR IN PLACE, PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS,
THOUGH AS WE SAW EARLIER, ANYTHING THAT MANAGES TO ORGANIZE INTO A
LINEAR MODE DOES POSE A NON-ZERO TORNADO RISK. AS SUCH, SPC HAS
UPGRADED NORTHERN LOWER INTO A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS.
GENERALLY, STORM COVERAGE WILL DECREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING AS A POST-CONVECTIVE STABLE LAYER BUILDS IN AND DEWPOINTS
TREND DOWNWARD.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE DECREASE THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE FRONT
CLEARS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AND INSTABILITY WANES. WHILE NOT
EXACTLY A FRESH AIRMASS, DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 ARE GOING TO FEEL CRISP
IN COMPARISON TO THE ONGOING 72 TO 77 DEWPOINTS (YUCK, THAT'S
HEINOUS) ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER. THE ISSUE IS GOING TO BE THAT
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT, WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL FILTER IN ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. AS SUCH, IN CONJUNCTION WITH MICHIGAN
EGLE, WILL BE ISSUING AN AIR QUALITY ALERT FOR EASTERN UPPER AT
3PM TODAY, AND ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER BEGINNING AT 3AM TONIGHT...
EXPIRING AT 11:59PM FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 219 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2025
THERMAL-DRIVEN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEANDER AROUND FROM OUR
SOUTHEAST TO OUR SOUTHWEST OVER THE COURSE OF THE PERIOD. FOR US, WE
WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM, LEADING TO POTENTIAL
DISTURBANCE PASSAGES... AND CONCEPTUALLY, THIS IS A FAVORABLE MCS
PATTERN IF THE WAVES CAN ALIGN WITH A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT WILL SERVE AS THE BARRIER BETWEEN THE CORE OF THE HEAT / "CORN
SWEAT" DRIVEN HUMIDITY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S AND 80S... AND THE
COOLER AIR NORTH OF THIS REGION. FIRST SUCH WAVE LOOKS TO PASS
SATURDAY, BRINGING US A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARMER
AIR QUICKLY BUILDS ON THE HEELS OF THIS WAVE'S PASSAGE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY (HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S, PERHAPS LOWER 90S). LONGER RANGE
GUIDANCE WANTS TO BRING ANOTHER WAVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY, WHICH WOULD PROBABLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND STORMS
WITH ITS PASSAGE. TRENDS ARE POINTING TOWARD A CONSIDERABLE COOLDOWN
TOWARD THE MIDDLE - END OF NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S,
ACCOMPANIED BY OCCASIONAL SHOWER CHANCES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1040 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2025
AREAS OF FG/BR ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS AND RECENT RAINFALL -- AND MANY TAF
SITES MAY SEE DROPS IN VSBYS TONIGHT TO MVFR/IFR. ASIDE FROM SOME
LOWERED CIGS HANGING ON OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS INTERIOR
AREAS/NEAR MBL AND AFOREMENTIONED FG/BR, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-098-099.
AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
MIZ086>088-095>097.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HAD
LONG TERM...HAD
AVIATION...DJC
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