928
FXUS63 KAPX 252353
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
753 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND MILD FOR MOST TONIGHT. SLIGHT SHOWER / RUMBLE OF
THUNDER CHANCE NEAR SAGINAW BAY LATE TONIGHT.
- SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES BUILD SATURDAY AMID WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY. BEST RAIN CHANCES FAVOR
NORTHEAST LOWER.
- WARM TO HOT AND HUMID WEATHER CARRIES ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
NEXT MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN / STORM CHANCES BUILD MONDAY, WITH
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER TO FOLLOW MIDWEEK AND BEYOND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2025
STOUT AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DIRECTLY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH YESTERDAY'S STATIONARY FRONT HOLDING STEADY,
STRETCHING ROUGHLY FROM KANSAS CITY TO TORONTO. MODEST CONVECTIVE
RESPONSES UNDERWAY ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES, WITH INFLUENCES OF HIGH PRESSURE FENDING OFF
CLOUD COVER FROM THE FRONT ACROSS OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. LAKE BREEZE
PROCESSES HAVE COMMENCED, AND A CU FIELD HAS MATERIALIZED ALONG THE
LAKE HURON SHORE AND WESTERN CHIPPEWA AND MACKINAC COUNTIES. LIMITED
INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THAT IN CHECK, PERHAPS A SPRINKLE
THIS AFTERNOON TOWARD ALPENA / HARRISVILLE / TAWAS AND WHITEFISH
POINT / TROUT LAKE. OTHERWISE, EXPECTING A THICK HAZE TO REMAIN
OVERHEAD, COURTESY OF CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE... WHICH HAS LED TO AN
AIR QUALITY ADVISORY REMAINING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT.
TONIGHT, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY ZIPS OFF TO THE EAST, WITH A
THERMALLY DRIVEN SURFACE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS BEGINNING TO
RETROGRADE WESTWARD. THIS OCCURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAK WAVE
RIDING THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. THUS, THE FRONT WILL BE DRAWN BACK
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. SEEMS LIKELY THAT AN OVERWHELMING
MAJORITY OF THIS AREA HOLDS DRY TONIGHT... BUT IF ANY RENEGADE
CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN PERTURBATIONS ORIGINATING OVER IOWA AND
ILLINOIS THIS EVENING CAN ADVANCE FAR ENOUGH NORTHWARD ALONG THE
FRONT TONIGHT, CERTAINLY POSSIBLE FOR A SHOWER OR RUMBLE OF
THUNDER CLOSER TO SAGINAW BAY. LOWS TONIGHT HOLD MILD... ANYWHERE
FROM 57 TO 66 DEGREES.
LOOKING AHEAD TO SATURDAY, CONTINUED NORTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THAT
FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR DEEPER MOISTURE TO ATTEMPT TO POOL ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER, IN PARTICULAR NORTHEAST LOWER. WITH AN ANEMIC WIND
PATTERN COUPLED WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR AN
INVERTED-TROUGH LIKE FEATURE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER,
REINFORCED BY THE LAKE HURON BREEZE. WITH DEWPOINTS ONCE AGAIN
APPROACHING OR EVEN EXCEEDING 70 ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER,
INSTABILITY SHOULD EASILY BE ABLE TO MATERIALIZE IN THE AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN CLOUD SHIELD THAT LIKELY SETTLES
ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER. AS SUCH, ANTICIPATING POTENTIAL FOR SOME POP-
UP AFTERNOON SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY ALONG LAKE HURON WHERE THAT WIND
SHIFT WILL MAXIMIZE SURFACE CONVERGENCE. CERTAINTY IN ANY RAIN WEST
OF I-75 IS MUCH LOWER, AND GUIDANCE ISN'T ALL THAT EXCITED ABOUT
CONVECTION NORTH OF THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY REGION ANYWAYS.
PARAMETERS ALOFT ARE NOT EXACTLY SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER, BUT MODEST SHEAR COUPLED WITH THE INSTABILITY DOES SUPPORT
A STRONGER / GUSTIER STORM OR TWO, ALONG WITH SOME SMALL HAIL. WITH
THAT BEING SAID, SPC CONTINUES TO LEAVE US IN GENERAL THUNDER FOR
SATURDAY, SO THE CONSENSUS OPINION AT THIS JUNCTURE IS THAT ANY
ACTIVITY LIKELY REMAINS SUB-SEVERE SATURDAY. IT WILL BE INCREASINGLY
HUMID AND SATURATED ALOFT, SO SOME HEAVY RAIN IS ON THE TABLE IN ANY
GIVEN SHOWER / STORM... THOUGH LARGELY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
COVERAGE SUGGESTS A MINIMAL HYDROLOGIC RESPONSE CONCERN. DEFINITELY
FEELING HUMID AGAIN WITH HIGHS 78 TO 88 (COOLEST IMMEDIATE
LAKESHORES).
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2025
THERMALLY DRIVEN RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH WILL CONTINUE ITS WESTWARD RETROGRADE THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD, WITH NORTHERN MICHIGAN REMAINING ON THE PERIPHERY OF
THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW AROUND THIS FEATURE. ANTICIPATING HOTTER AND
MORE HUMID WEATHER TO CONCLUDE THE WEEKEND AND BEGIN NEXT WEEK, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWER 90S. DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S WILL LIKELY
BRING ABOUT HEAT INDICES IN THE MID-UPPER 90S, LIKELY FALLING JUST
SHORT OF ANY HEAT HEADLINE CRITERIA. AS FAR AS RAIN CHANCES GO, A
MORE ROBUST WAVE WILL ZIP THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FROM THE
NORTHWEST, IN A PATTERN THAT DOES FAVOR CONVECTIVE COMPLEX / MCS
GENERATION. SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL FROM THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED. SHOULD BE NOTED THAT GLOBAL MODELS ARE USUALLY
ABOUT AS EFFECTIVE AT RESOLVING THE EXACT SOLUTION THIS FAR OUT IN
MESOSCALE DOMINANT PATTERNS AS I AM AT WRITING SHORT FORECAST
DISCUSSIONS (SO, NOT VERY WELL).
WITH THAT, WHOLESALE CHANGES FOR MONDAY'S FORECAST ARE ON THE
TABLE UNTIL WE SEE THE WHITES OF THIS FEATURE'S EYES. ONE THING
IS FOR CERTAIN... AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH NEXT WEEK, GUIDANCE IS
IN HIGH AGREEMENT THAT THE THERMAL RIDGE RETROGRADES FAR ENOUGH
WEST INTO THE ROCKIES THAT THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RETREAT
WITH IT, CONFINED LARGELY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER... SO FOR
THOSE LOOKING FOR COOLER WEATHER AND A REPRIEVE FROM THE RECENT
RUN OF HEINOUS HUMIDITY... I DO BEAR GOOD NEWS. BY WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF NEXT WEEK, IT SEEMS LIKELY WE SEE A DRIER STRETCH OF
WEATHER FEATURING HIGHS IN THE 70S (PERHAPS UPPER 60S SOME
DAYS) AND LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 751 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2025
TERMINALS EXPECTED TO BE VFR FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A COUPLE OF QUESTION MARKS AT KMBL...WHICH COULD
BE IMPACTED BY NEARBY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AFTER DAYBREAK
SATURDAY BUT OCCURRENCE IS UNCERTAIN. KAPN SORT OF IN THE SAME
BOAT WITH PRECIPITATION MOSTLY LIKELY REMAINING TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MIZ016>018-
020>036-041-042-098-099.
AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MIZ086>088-
095>097.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HAD
LONG TERM...HAD
AVIATION...JPB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page