970
FXUS63 KAPX 260659
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
259 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN,
FAVORING AREAS NEAR SAGINAW BAY ALONG AND LOCATIONS WEST OF I-75.
-HOT AND HUMID WEATHER CONTINUES THIS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS APPROACHING 90.
-COOL AND QUIET WEATHER RETURN TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY MIDWEEK
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2025
TODAY... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST CONTINUES
TO PUSH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA REMAINS ELONGATED FROM THE MIDWEST NEAR KANSAS
CITY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES OVER LAKE ERIE. A LOW LEVEL TROUGH
POSITIONS ITSELF JUST SOUTH OF SUPERIOR WILL AID IN MOVING THE FRONT
NORTHWARD AND DELIVER SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE CWA TODAY. BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE NEAR
THE SAGINAW BAY WHERE THERE IS SOME MODERATE INSTABILITY BUILDS THIS
MORNING. STILL LOW CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD AREAS SOUTH OF M-55
RECEIVING A QUARTER INCH OR LESS, BUT LOCALIZED AREAS OF CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS APPROACHING AN INCH.
A FEW AFTERNOON POP-UP SHOWERS ARE LIKELY FOR THE NORTHEASTERN PARTS
OF NORTHERN LOWER ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILDING
THE REST OF THE CWA. DAYTIME HIGHS CAN BE EXPECTED TO HIT THE
MID/UPPER 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH DEW POINTS APPROACHING 70
DEGREES.
SUNDAY... LARGE SCALE MIDLEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
MAJORITY OF THE CONUS INCLUDING RISING MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. BIGGEST NOTICING WEATHER FEATURE WILL BE THE HOT
AND HUMID WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS REACHING
THE LOW 70S. A FEW LOCATIONS HAVE MODERATE PROBABILITIES OF HIGHS IN
THE LOW 90S. PARTICULARLY INTERIOR AREAS EAST OF I-75 DUE TO SLIGHT
DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION REMAIN LOW FOR THE CWA
MAINLY BECAUSE THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED STATIONARY FRONT DRAGS
ITSELF SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2025
MONDAY... THERMAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO OCCUPY THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AT THE START OF THE WORK WEEK WITH H8 TEMPERATURES NEAR 20 DEGREES
CELSIUS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR EAST SHOULD KEEP THE REGION
PRETTY HOT AND DRY, BUT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST AS ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT WISCONSIN AND
MINNESOTA. MODERATE INSTABILITY BUILDS DURING THE DAYTIME MONDAY
LIKELY RESULTING IN A FEW POP UP SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN.
POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS POSSIBLE DUE TO
THE CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER CARRYING OVER FROM THE OTHER SIDE OF
THE LAKE.
TUESDAY... ONE MORE DAY OF HOT WEATHER DUE TO WARM RIDGING IS
EXPECTED THIS TUESDAY. MIDLEVEL PATTERN BEGINS TO SUBSIDE BUT HIGHS
REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ON TUESDAY. COOLER-CANADIAN AIR MASS
STARTS TO WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN
POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK IMPENDING COLD FRONT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OUTLOOK... MIDLEVEL RIDGING FINALLY
PROGRESSES FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT COOL AND DRY AIR MAKE ITS WAY BACK
TO THE NORTHWOODS. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE 70S FOR THE AREA ALONG
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION REMAIN LOW HAS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY KEEP CONDITIONS COOL AND DRY, BUT
LOCALIZED/SMALL SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE AS WE APPROACH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 142 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2025
MAY SEE SOME MVFR PRODUCING MIST DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING AT
THE TAF LOCATIONS, WITH ANY MIST RAPIDLY MIXING OUT TOWARD
SUNRISE. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE UNDER PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS AND FAIRLY HIGH BASED CUMULUS TODAY. MAY SEE A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP OUT OF THIS CU FIELD, BUT ANY DIRECT
IMPACTS TO TAF LOCATIONS (ESPECIALLY AT KMBL AND KAPN) REMAIN
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. CLOUD EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.
LIGHT WINDS WITH LOCAL LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SJC
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...MSB
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