888
FXUS63 KAPX 261914
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
314 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING, PATCHY FOG TONIGHT.
- HOT AND HUMID ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, HOTTEST AROUND SAGINAW BAY.
- AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/STORMS MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST:
PATTERN CONSISTS OF VORT/MESO LOW MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION/EXITING TODAY WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION THANKS TO HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC,
ALONG WITH RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. CONTINUED MOISTURE AND BIT OF A PERTURBATION UPSTREAM
MAY KEEP THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THIS EVENING.
ADDITIONALLY, FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES COOL
TO SATURATION ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHT
ANOMALIES WILL BUILD INTO SUNDAY WITH SUBTLE HINTS OF A LITTLE
PERTURBATION WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW, GENERALLY TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF N MI. WHILE AN EXTREMELY ISOLATED SHOWER
OR STORM CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ON SUNDAY, SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT WILL LIKELY STIFLE ANY POP OPPORTUNITIES.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING:
WITHIN THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY, A FEW MORE SHOWERS
AND RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE ONLY CONCERN. BEST
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE SOUTH OF M-32 LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT:
MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS AND A RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT. TYPICAL LOWER TERRAINED/VALLEY SPOTS
WILL BE THE MOST FAVORED, BUT LOOKS LIKE THERE'S A DECENT POTENTIAL
ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN LOWER FOR BR/FG TONIGHT GIVEN FCST BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS AND MODEL OUTPUT.
HEAT ON SUNDAY:
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AS
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVERHEAD, AND LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS REMAIN
AROUND 70 DEGREES. HEAT INDICES IN THE 90S MOST LOCATIONS, PEAKING
IN THE MID 90S NEAR SAGINAW BAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2025
DAYS 2-3 (MONDAY - TUESDAY):
RIDGE AXIS ALOFT CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO NORTHERN MI ON MONDAY,
MEANING HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS AND THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 90S NEAR SAGINAW BAY COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOW 70S WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 90S,
PERHAPS FLIRTING WITH 100 DEGREES. TOUGH TO KNOW THE EXACT EVOLUTION
OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT (MIGHT BE A SLIGHT CHANCE),
BUT THERE IS AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY AND DURING THE DAY MONDAY ALONG ANY MCS BOUNDARIES AND
SUBSEQUENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY UPSTREAM. PLENTY OF GUIDANCE EITHER
WEAKENS ANY CLUSTERS OF STORMS, OR ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE AT
ALL ON MONDAY, BUT KEEPING A CHANCE IN THE FORECAST. SPC HAS THE
REGION IN GENERAL THUNDER ON MONDAY, MARGINAL RISK WEST OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.
STILL A LITTLE WARM AND A LITTLE HUMID TUESDAY, BUT EXTENDED RELIEF
IS ON THE WAY, READ ON FOR MORE DETAILS.
DAYS 4-7 (WEDNESDAY - SATURDAY):
MORE IMPRESSIVE UPPER LOW MOVES AND DEEPENS ACROSS HUDSONS BAY,
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY, AND COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM BUILDING DOWN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL WASH OUT THE
HEAT AND HUMIDITY FROM MID WEEK TO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. THUS,
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL BE COMMON WITH LOW HUMIDITY
(ESPECIALLY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND). NOT A WHOLE LOT OF
PRECIPITATION CONCERNS EITHER DURING THIS TIME, PERHAPS THE BEST
CHANCE WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGING
A CRISP AIRMASS TO THE REGION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 116 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2025
LARGELY VFR TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE BOARD... WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING
SOME LINGERING MVFR CIGS DEPARTING TVC IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
OTHERWISE, POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS AT APN THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH
COULD LEAD TO SOME BRIEF INSTANCES OF MARGINAL IFR TO SOLIDLY
MVFR CONDITIONS INTO THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION, SOME WILDFIRE
SMOKE WILL BE AROUND THROUGH THE DAY INTO TONIGHT. ANTICIPATING
ANY RAIN ACTIVITY TO TAPER QUICKLY THIS EVENING. EXPECTING SOME
BR AND POSSIBLY FG TO BUILD IN TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN LOWER
TAF SITES, BUT WILL QUICKLY SCOUR OUT TO SKC SUNDAY MORNING.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...JLD
LONG TERM...JLD
AVIATION...HAD
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