537
FXUS63 KAPX 091047
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
647 AM EDT SAT AUG 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NW LOWER, THE STRAITS,
AND EASTERN UPPER LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
PRIMARY CONCERNS ARE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN.
- WARM AND HUMID WITH PERIODIC STORM CHANCES CONTINUING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- A BIT LESS WARM AND HUMID WITH PERHAPS MORE RAIN CHANCES THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT SAT AUG 9 2025
PRETTY CLASSIC HOT AUGUST PATTERN OVERHEAD. STRONG AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW IN HOTTER
AIR WITH GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PREVAILING THROUGH THE DAY TODAY,
BARRING CONVECTIVE DISRUPTIONS. ROBUST LONGWAVE TROUGH GENERALLY
OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW
EASTWARD MOVEMENT, WITH A SSW TO NNE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM
CENTRAL KANSAS TO FAR NW ONTARIO, WITH CONVECTION INITIATING ACROSS
CENTRAL MINNESOTA, CENTRAL WISCONSIN, AND WESTERN / CENTRAL UPPER
MICHIGAN. THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST WILL HEAVILY BE ON HOW DOGGONE
HOT THINGS GET TODAY. AFOREMENTIONED SW FLOW COMBINED WITH A PRETTY
ROBUST 700MB WARM NOSE SHOULD CAP US FOR THE DAY TODAY, WHILE
CONVECTION BECOMES LOOSELY MORE ORGANIZED OVER WI AND MN. STEERING
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD DIRECT THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WISCONSIN
HIGHLANDS INTO THE CENTRAL YOOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE WE
LIKELY HOLD DRY UNDERNEATH THE CAPPING INVERSION. IN ADDITION,
INSTABILITY WILL SLOWLY WANE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS AMPLE MIXING
LEADS TO 70S DEWPOINTS THIS MORNING MIXING OUT TO THE LOWER 60S
ACROSS THE BOARD THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH 850MB TEMPS GENERALLY 20-21 CELSIUS AND AMPLE MIXING EXPECTED,
WILL CERTAINLY BE A HOT ONE TODAY AS HIGHS SOAR INTO THE LOW-TO-MID
90S... PERHAPS UPPER 90S IN DOWNSLOPING AREAS SUCH AS TVC AND NE
LOWER. THOUGH DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND, STILL GOING TO
BE QUITE UNCOMFORTABLE TODAY, ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE WITHOUT PROPER
COOLING. WHILE WE MAY NOT EXACTLY BREACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, IT
IS PARAMOUNT TO STAY HYDRATED AND AVOID UNNECESSARY EXERTION DURING
THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, BE COGNIZANT
OF BEACH CONDITIONS TODAY... WHILE THE WATER IS LIKELY WARM ENOUGH
TO SWIM, THOSE GUSTY SW WINDS WILL LEAD TO CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON AREA
LAKES, WITH SOME MODERATE SWIM RISKS POSTED ON SOME LAKE MICHIGAN
BEACHES.
AS FAR AS STORM CHANCES GO... EXPECTING THE CAP TO WIN OUT AND KEEP
THINGS LARGELY DRY THROUGH THE DAY, BARRING THAT CONVECTIVE RIPPLE
OVER THE WESTERN YOOP PRODUCING STORMS AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD.
MUCH MORE ROBUST CONVECTIVE RESPONSE ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR TO THE
WEST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WAVE
CURRENTLY OVER KANSAS RIDING THE FRONT NORTH AND EAST TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA BY
THE EVENING, WITH SOME CAMS TRYING TO FORCE A DECAYING BATCH OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE NW LOWER LAKESHORE, THE STRAITS, AND
EASTERN UPPER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. CONCEPTUALLY, THIS PROBABLY
LEADS TO A SUB-SEVERE, OUTFLOW DRIVEN CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING INTO
THE AREA, BUT MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FEATURE MAY
BRIEFLY INFLATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS THIS
EVENING BEFORE DIURNAL INSTABILITY WANES AND THIS COMPLEX LARGELY
DISSIPATES. NONETHELESS, SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT NW LOWER, THE
STRAITS, AND THE EASTERN YOOP IN A DAMAGING-WIND-DRIVEN MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS.
TONIGHT STARTS ON THE CALMER SIDE OF THINGS, BUT GUIDANCE IS
BEGINNING TO HONE IN ON AN INCREASING LLJ ACROSS THE REGION, DRIVING
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY LATER TONIGHT. AS SUCH, WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BLOSSOM TONIGHT, SOME OF WHICH
MAY CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW GUIDANCE HANDLES THIS
FEATURE THROUGH THE DAY, BUT WITH ANY ORGANIZATION, A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT MAY MATERIALIZE LATER TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE
CWA.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT SAT AUG 9 2025
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO WORK CLOSER AS THAT AREA OF
LONGWAVE TROUGHING SCOOTS ENE TOWARD HUDSON BAY, FLATTENING OUT.
THIS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL OUT AS IT
BECOMES MORE PARALLEL ORIENTED TO THE FLOW ALOFT. AS SUCH, THIS WILL
LEAD TO HUMID WEATHER CARRYING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, ACCOMPANIED BY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH CONVECTIVELY AGITATED WAVES
MAKING THEIR WAY THROUGH THE REGION. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS ALL
SHAKES OUT, BUT AS STATED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER, PATTERN
RECOGNITION ALIGNS WITH HEAVIER RAIN PROBABLY OCCURRING ON A MORE
LOCALIZED LEVEL, AND WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THESE
WAVES' RESPECTIVE PASSAGES AND HOW MUCH UPSTREAM ACTIVITY SOILS OUR
ENVIRONMENT. CERTAINLY MORE DETAILS TO COME. ANOTHER AREA OF
TROUGHING OVER CENTRAL CANADA DIGS SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY, PROVIDING ENOUGH FORCING TO DISPATCH THIS FRONT
SOUTH AND EAST OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN. RESULT WILL BE LESS WARM AND
HUMID AIR FOR THE TIME BEING AS THE FRONT HOLDS SOUTH FOR A COUPLE
DAYS, BEFORE POTENTIALLY SURGING BACK NORTHWARD INTO NEXT WEEKEND,
WHICH WOULD RETURN THE MORE PROLIFIC HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO THE AREA.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT SAT AUG 9 2025
HIGH BASED CU FIELD DEVELOPS MIDDAY/THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CHANCES FOR
SOME TSRA TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY INTO THIS
EVENING -- ONLY ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT TO WARRANT A
PROB30 AT A HANDFUL OF THE TERMINALS. ADDITIONAL LOW CONFIDENCE
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES FOLLOW LATER TONIGHT. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD, GUSTY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR LHZ345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-342.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR LMZ341-344>346.
SHORT TERM...HAD
LONG TERM...HAD
AVIATION...MJG
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