895
FXUS63 KAPX 100543
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
143 AM EDT SUN AUG 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM WITH PERIODIC SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES CONTINUING INTO THE
START OF THE WEEK.
- A BIT LESS WARM AND HUMID WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, WITH
PERHAPS MORE WARMING HEADING INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 224 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:
DEFINITELY A WARM ONE OUT THERE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, COURTESY OF
DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF SLOWLY DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING. SIMPLE BREADTH OF THE WARM LOW LEVEL THERMAL ENVIRONMENT,
COMBINED WITH GOOD SOLAR CONTRIBUTIONS AND RESPECTABLE MECHANICAL
MIXING, HAS RESULTED IN CURRENT TEMPERATURES PUNCHING WELL UP INTO
THE 80S...WITH EVEN A FEW LOWER 90S. HUMIDITY IS NOT QUITE AS
EXTREME AS THE PAST FEW DAYS, BUT DEWPOINTS STILL MOSTLY IN THE 60S
IS RESULTING IN HEAT INDICES RUNNING A BIT ABOVE THOSE ACTUAL
TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE, CURRENTLY A DRY ONE ACROSS THE NORTHWOODS,
WITH ALL DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINING UPSTREAM WITHIN A MORE
ROBUST INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AXIS.
EXPECT JUST THE SLOW EAST PROGRESSION OF THE LONG WAVE FEATURES TO
CONTINUE EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK, CONTINUING TO PLACE NORTHERN
MICHIGAN IN THE CROSSHAIRS OF OF WARM AND MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND ADDRESSING ANY SHOWER/STORM POTENTIAL.
DETAILS:
PER THE USUAL, A BIT OF A CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH REGARDS TO
OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION. NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR
AREA REMAINS CENTERED IN THE LATEST SPC MARGINAL SEVERE RISK WORDING
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...KEYING IN ON WHAT LOOKS TO BE A
GENERAL DECAYING LINE(S) OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS THEY ADVANCE INTO
OUR AREA. PATTERN RECOGNITION DEFINITELY SUPPORTS MAIN FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT TRENDING SOUTHWEST WITH TIME AS
UPSTREAM CONVECTIVELY INDUCED CONGEALED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WORK INTO
A MUCH MORE FAVORABLE INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT FOUND ACROSS WISCONSIN
INTO IOWA. MAIN SEVERE CONCERN SHOULD REMAIN IN THAT REGION, BUT
CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM OR TWO WORKING
INTO OUR AREA BEFORE BETTER SOLAR INDUCED INSTABILITY IS LOST...WITH
ANY MORE ROBUST UPDRAFT CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE
SIZE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. AGAIN, MUCH LIKE THE LAST FEW
DAYS...OVERALL ORGANIZATION AND COVERAGE OF MOIST CONVECTION LOOKS
MINIMAL AND WHAT THERE IS LOOKS TO REMAIN CENTERED ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR AREA. A VERY MILD OVERNIGHT, WITH MOST AREAS
FAILING TO DROP BELOW 70 DEGREES.
SAME GENERAL IDEA HOLDS THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH LIMITED FORCING AND
WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LIMITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DESPITE
THE WARM AND SOMEWHAT MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. DO EXPECT AT
LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AT TIMES, BUT MOST CERTAINLY
WITH MINIMAL AREAL EXTENT. THAT RELATIVELY WARM MID LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT AND LACK OF CONVECTIVE LAYER EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUPPORTS
MINIMAL SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS WITH ANY STORMS. A BIT MORE ROBUST
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT EXPECTED SUNDAY, WITH MORE SUN-FILLED AREAS OF
NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN EXPECTING HIGHS UP INTO THE LOWER AND
PERHAPS MIDDLE 90S. LOOKING AT HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S ACROSS
NORTHWEST LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. OF COURSE, THOSE
SOMEWHAT ELEVATED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN
A FEW DEGREES MORE UNCOMFORTABLE YET.
LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 224 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:
NOT A LOT OF SIGNIFICANT CHANGE AS WE START THE WORK WEEK, WITH
MOISTURE RICH SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING HEAD OF SLOWLY APPROACHING
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. TRENDS CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT TROUGHING WORKING INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION INTO MID-
WEEK, WITH PERHAPS MORE AMPLIFICATION AND A RETURN TO MORE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND ADDITIONAL SHOWER/STORM CONCERNS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
DETAILS:
TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE
NORTHWOODS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE OVERALL FORCING WILL
INCREASE WITH APPROACH OF THAT TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT,
ACTUAL PLACEMENT OF GREATEST DEEP LAYER CONVERGENCE WILL BE HIGHLY
PREDICATED BY YET TO BE DETERMINED CONVECTIVE INDUCED OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES. SIMPLE PATTERN RECOGNITION SUPPORTS AT LEAST SOME
SHOWER/STORM POTENTIAL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AGAIN,
GIVEN CONVECTIVE NATURE OF ACTIVITY AND THOSE EXPECTED OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES, HARD TO GO ABOVE JUST CHANCE TYPE WORDING FOR NOW
(ESPECIALLY IN-LIGHT OF GROWING DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA). BEST MID LEVEL SHEAR THROUGH THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN
TO OUR NORTH AND WEST, AND THE MID LEVEL ENVIRONMENT LOOKS TO REMAIN
RELATIVELY WARM...WITH BOTH OF THESE SUGGESTING A MINIMAL SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME
DECENT RAIN TOTALS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT AGAIN PATTERN
RECOGNITION SUPPORTS ANY SUBSTANTIAL RAIN TO BE HIGHLY LOCALIZED AND
OF MINIMAL IMPACT. STILL A BIT WARM AND HUMID THROUGH TUESDAY, BUT
DEFINITELY LESS INTENSE HEAT THAN OBSERVED TODAY.
PASSAGE OF TROUGHING SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS A BIT LESS WARM AND
HUMID WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, WITH AN EXPECTED SLOW AMPLIFICATION
OF THE PATTERN LOOKING TO BRING INCREASINGLY WARM TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARDS TO ANY SHOWER/STORM POTENTIAL, FORCING THE UTILIZATION OF
THE POP AMBITIOUS CONSENSUS BLEND APPROACH THROUGH THIS PERIOD. OF
COURSE, ANY ACTUAL RAIN POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BE ON A MUCH SHORTER
TIME AND AREAL SCALE THAN THIS FORECAST WOULD SUGGEST.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT SUN AUG 10 2025
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED STORMS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONG
STORMS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING, SMALL HAIL, GUSTY
WINDS, AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
LARGELY EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER TAF SITES THROUGH THE
ISSUANCE PERIOD. MVFR CIGS LOOK TO MOVE INTO CIU LATER TONIGHT, WITH
BRIEF DROPS TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED LATER SUNDAY MORNING.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...DJC
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