244
FXUS63 KAPX 112331
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
731 PM EDT MON AUG 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS, ALONG WITH PERIODIC SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES SET TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
- TURNING DRY, COOLER, AND LESS HUMID WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY,
WITH MORE WARMING HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT MON AUG 11 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:
SLOW PROGRESSION TO THE LARGE SCALE FLOW REGIME CONTINUES, WITH
NORTHERN MICHIGAN CENTERED SQUARELY BETWEEN DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND APPROACHING CENTRAL NOAM CENTERED TROUGHING. MOISTURE
RICH AND WARM WEATHER PRODUCING SOUTHWEST FLOW THE RESULT, WITH
PERIODIC CONVECTIVELY AGITATED WAVES AND COLD POOLS DRIVING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION. AS MENTIONED, STILL A WARM AND HUMID ONE OUT THERE,
WITH TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY PUNCHING UP IN THE 70S AND 80S. OF
COURSE, THAT IS ONLY ONE HALF OF THE EQUATION, WITH RELATIVELY
MOISTURE RICH LOW LEVELS MAKING IT FEEL EVEN A BIT WARMER YET.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
FOCUS REMAINS ON SHOWER/STORM EVOLUTION AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
DETAILS:
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END
EARLY THIS EVENING AS WEDGE OF OFF-THE-DECK DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE
SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA. CAN'T RULE OUT A STRONGER STORM OR
TWO YET THIS AFTERNOON, BUT CHANCES FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS
MINIMAL. LOOKING AT MAINLY DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT UNDER CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL REMAIN SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE 60S AND LOWER
70S.
PER THE USUAL, ANOTHER CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH REGARDS TO SHOWER
AND STORM EVOLUTION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS TWO DIFFERENT
FORCING MECHANISMS AND ATTENDANT PLUMES OF DEEPER MOISTURE MAKE A
RUN AT THE NORTHWOODS. CURRENT TRENDS SUPPORT CONVECTIVELY AGITATED
WAVE/IMPULSE TO ROTATE NORTHEAST OUT OF APPROACHING TROUGHING...
SPREADING ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE DAY. STILL SOME
QUESTION ON HOW FAR NORTH THIS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SPREAD, WITH AT
LEAST SOME INDICATION THE TARGET AREA WILL REMAIN ONLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY THIS LEAD WAVE.
GUIDANCE DERIVED SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MINIMAL SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS
WITH THIS LEAD WAVE WITH MORE OF A TALL/SKINNY CAPE PROFILE THROUGH
THE ENTIRETY OF THE CONVECTIVE LAYER. HOWEVER, THOSE SAME PROFILES
ARE MOISTURE RICH, SUPPORTING SOME TRANSIENT HEAVY RAIN RATES (IN
EXCESS OF AN INCH PER HOUR) WITH ANY MORE ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. OTHER
SOURCE OF FORCING IS WITH ARRIVAL OF MAIN WAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
EXPECT TO SEE AT LEAST A DISJOINTED LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. DEFINITELY A BIT MORE VIGOR TO THIS FORCING,
ALONG WITH MORE RESPECTABLE SHEAR THROUGH THE CONVECTIVE LAYER.
DEFINITELY NOT EARTH-SHATTERING BY ANY MEANS, BUT COULD SEE A MORE
ROBUST WIND THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY, ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON WHEN HEATING IS MAXIMIZED. THIS PLACES THE "GREATEST"
THREAT JUST TO OUR WEST. LATEST SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
CONCURS, PLACING MARGINAL SEVERE WORDING BACK ACROSS EASTERN
WISCONSIN AND CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN...WITH THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF
THIS OUTLOOK JUST CLIPPING WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY. FRONT LOOKS TO
ADVANCE STEADILY EAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT, LIKELY ENDING THE RAIN THREAT BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.
MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE IN CHECK
TUESDAY, BUT STILL LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 80S. IT WILL REMAIN HUMID, MAKING IT FEEL A BIT MORE
UNCOMFORTABLE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT MON AUG 11 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF CANADA ORIGINATED HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS THROUGH
AND EAST OF THE AREA. STILL STRONG SUPPORT SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING
BEGINS TO EXPAND BACK NORTH TO END THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND,
SPREADING MORE HEAT AND HUMIDITY BACK INTO THE REGION AS IT DOES SO.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
MAIN FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM ON TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND WEEKEND
SHOWER/STORM CONCERNS.
DETAILS:
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY EXPECTED TO BE MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE, WITH
COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. LIKELY TO SEE MUCH OF THE AREA
NOT GET OUT OF THE 70S FOR HIGHS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH
PERHAPS LOCALES NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR/WHITEFISH BAY FAILING TO EVEN HIT
70 ON WEDNESDAY. SHOULD BE LARGELY DRY, ALTHOUGH CAN'T COMPLETELY
RULE OUT SOME SHALLOW INSTABILITY SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER, STILL LOOKS LIKE FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY
FRIDAY INTO AT LEAST THE START OF THE WEEKEND, RETURNING ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN. DEVELOPING THERMAL AND MOISTURE GRADIENTS, ALONG WITH SOME
HINTS OF PASSING MID LEVEL SUPPORT DOES ARGUE FOR SOME SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL SEE HOW THIS ALL
UNFOLDS, WITH PLENTY OF TIME FOR THE MORE THAN EXPECTED ADJUSTMENTS
TO THIS RAIN POTENTIAL...BOTH TEMPORALLY AND SPATIALLY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 731 PM EDT MON AUG 11 2025
FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT MBL/CIU. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
CIU. OVERALL, LESS CLOUD COVER TONIGHT. SOME FOG COULD FORM LATE
TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY MBL. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR TUE MORNING,
THOUGH MAY BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS TUE MORNING. S TO SW
WINDS BECOME SOMEWHAT BREEZY AGAIN TUESDAY.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...JZ
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