073
FXUS63 KAPX 122315
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
715 PM EDT TUE AUG 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LINGERING STORMS TONIGHT WITH AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM OR TWO.
- FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
- DRY MID TO LATE WEEK AND SEASONABLE TO SEASONABLY WARM.
- SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND, MAINLY ON
SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT TUE AUG 12 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST:
COMBINATION OF UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITHIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
AND INCREASING WINDS ALOFT. THUS, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LINGER INTO THE NIGHT, BUT ESPECIALLY EARLY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR A
STRONGER STORM WILL BE ~STRAITS NORTHWARD, CLOSER TO THE COLD POOL
AND FORCING, ALONG WITH INCREASED SHEAR. FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES COOL TO SATURATION,
ENHANCED BY ANY RAINFALL FROM TODAY AND TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, COOLER
AIRMASS SETTLES INTO N MI WEDNESDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS, DRY
CONDITIONS, AND HAZY SKIES.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
LINGERING STORMS TONIGHT:
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT SWING OVERHEAD. ADDITIONALLY, WINDS ALOFT
WILL INCREASE AS WELL. THUS, SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL LINGER AT
TIMES DURING THE OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WORKS
THROUGH THE AREA. FOCUS WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND PERHAPS THE
STRAITS-ISH REGION. ANY STRONGER STORM MAY BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS
AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN, ALTHOUGH WITH THE FORCING FOR ASCENT, SLIGHT
COOLING/DRYING ALOFT, AND AN INCREASE IN SHEAR, IT WOULDN'T BE
SURPRISING FOR THERE TO BE A WINDOW FOR A STORM OR TWO TO PRODUCE
SOME HAIL. SOME GUIDANCE DOES WEAKEN ANY MORE ROBUST ACTIVITY TO THE
NORTHWEST, BUT THINK THERE'S AT LEAST A BRIEF WINDOW FOR AN ISOLATED
SEVERE THREAT THIS EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. ACTIVITY SLOWLY
WINDS DOWN THROUGH THE NIGHT.
FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT:
FOG POTENTIAL EXISTS TONIGHT WITHIN A COOLING AIRMASS AND SOMEWHAT
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINS. PROGGED SOUNDINGS AND
2D FIELDS SHOW THE BEST POTENTIAL ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS, ASSUMING
WINDS DECOUPLE "ENOUGH". NON-ZERO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AID IN FOG
DEVELOPMENT IN ANY SUBTLE/GENTLE UPSLOPE REGIONS NEAR/JUST WEST OF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TYPICAL LOWER SPOTS WITHIN HILLY TERRAIN/RIVER
VALLEYS/NOTORIOUSLY FOGGY SPOTS (WEST BRANCH, MANISTEE) WILL ALSO BE
FAVORED.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT TUE AUG 12 2025
DAYS 2-3 (THURSDAY - FRIDAY):
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO INCREASE TO END THE WEEK, RESULTING IN
PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER AND INCREASING TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY
ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS OFF TO THE EAST. SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL ADVECT MOISTURE IN FROM THE SOUTH, WITH AN INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS, BEGINNING AS EARLY AS LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT.
DAYS 4-5 (SATURDAY - SUNDAY):
ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS ALOFT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND, LOW
PRESSURE SKIRTING WELL TO THE NORTH IN CANADA WILL DRAG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH IT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITHIN A MODESTLY UNSTABLE
AND AT LEAST MODESTLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THUS, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY
(WE'LL HAVE TO FINE TUNE THE DETAILS ON THE SEVERE POTENTIAL).
DAYS 6-7 (MONDAY - TUESDAY)
RIDGING REMAINS ALOFT, BUILDING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE GL. BIT OF
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A BATTLE BETWEEN MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY ALLOW
FOR THE OCCASIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES, OR THE COOLER, DRIER AIR
TO THE NORTH COULD ALSO WIN OUT. TOO EARLY TO DISCERN ANY DETAILS AT
THIS TIME, BUT FOR NOW, HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR POPS IN THE EXTENDED.
ENS GUIDANCE IN THE EXTENDED SUPPORTS THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IN
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 707 PM EDT TUE AUG 12 2025
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHERN MI'S TERMINALS THIS EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT. BROKEN LINE
OF TSRA ALONG THIS BOUNDARY (CURRENTLY ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL U.P.) WILL SAG SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH THE
BEST CHANCES FOR TSRA AT CIU/PLN. LOWER CHANCES AT APN/TVC/MBL.
SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING TURN LIGHT/VRB POST FROPA WITH
POTENTIAL FOR IFR/MVFR VSBYS IN FOG DEVELOPMENT AT MANY OF THE
TERMINALS THROUGH SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. VFR EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS, A TOUCH BREEZY AT TIMES, UNDER A DEVELOPING
AFTERNOON SHALLOW CU FIELD.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...JLD
LONG TERM...JLD
AVIATION...MJG
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