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FXUS63 KAPX 131720
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
120 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HAZY / SMOKY SKIES TODAY, BUT REMAINING DRY.
- DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SEASONABLE TO SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES.
- SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND, MAINLY ON
SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 242 AM EDT WED AUG 13 2025
SURFACE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE REGION FROM
EAST TO WEST, TAKING WITH IT THE HUMIDITY WE HAVE BEEN CONTENDING
WITH FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. BY NOW INSTABILITY IS MEAGER, SO JUST
ANTICIPATING SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER
THAT SHOULD TAPER OFF BEFORE DAYBREAK AS THE FRONT IS DISPATCHED
EASTWARD OVER LAKE HURON. ANTICIPATING SOME OF THAT PESKY LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM AREAS THAT SAW RECENT RAINFALL TO CREATE SOME FOG
IN THE COMING HOURS ACROSS THE BOARD, WITH FOG BEING NOTED OVER
EASTERN UPPER ALREADY. THIS SHOULD COULD TAKE ITS TIME LIFTING
IN THE MORNING, BUT WITH AMPLE MIXING BENEATH A 700MB SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION SHOULD FLUSH THAT OUT, LEADING TO AMPLE SUNSHINE
THROUGH THE DAY, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S IN
EASTERN UPPER AND THE NORTHWEST LOWER LAKESHORES... NEAR 80
ACROSS THE REST OF NORTHERN LOWER, THOUGH DOWNSLOPING FROM
STEADY NW FLOW WILL PERMIT SOME WARMING INTO THE 81 TO 84 RANGE
NEAR SAGINAW BAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS SET TO PASS THROUGH,
BUT THAT 700MB WARM NOSE WILL KEEP THOSE POOFY CUMULUS CLOUDS
IN CHECK... SO WILL OPT OUT OF ISSUING ANY POPS ANYWHERE...
THOUGH PERHAPS A SPRINKLE IS POSSIBLE IN EASTERN UPPER WHERE
SOME BETTER MOISTURE POOLING WILL LINGER. ANOTHER NOTE... SMOKE
FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL INTRUDE TODAY, ADDING A BIT OF HAZE
TO THE PICTURE WITH TIME. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT,
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR,
AND 54 TO 59 ALONG THE COASTS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 242 AM EDT WED AUG 13 2025
STILL HOLDING DRY FOR THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD. ANOTHER PLEASANT FEEL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.
SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO FRIDAY, ALLOWING FOR
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO BUILD, AND THUS DRAW IN WARMER AND (WITH
TIME) INCREASINGLY MORE HUMID AIR TO THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING
ABOUT THE NEXT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME STORMS, POSSIBLE
AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT, LINGERING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER
TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH TO THE NORTH AND DRAGS SURFACE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. STILL TO EARLY TO GIVE DETAILS ON SEVERE STORMS,
BUT THIS IS A FAVORABLE UPSTREAM MCS DEVELOPMENT REGIME, SO DETAILS
WILL BE IRONED OUT WITH TIME. ONCE THE BOUNDARY CLEARS, IT'S BACK TO
NEAR-TO-SLIGHTLY-BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO KICK OFF NEXT WEEK.
GUIDANCE WANTS TO KEEP MOISTURE HANGING AROUND AND SOME LINGERING
SHOWER CHANCES INTO NEXT WEEK... BUT THE THEME FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTER REMAINS THE SAME... DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH SHOULD FILTER
IN AND SUPPRESS MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY SOUTH AND WEST OF US, THUS
KEEPING THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FAR SW
OF THE CWA INTO NEXT WEEK, IF ANY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2025
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLEAR
SKIES AND CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING TONIGHT, POTENTIALLY LEADING TO MORE FG/BR DEVELOPMENT
AND LOWERED VISIBILITIES THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, ANY
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF QUICKLY AS THE SUN RISES,
WITH LIGHT WINDS PREVAILING AND AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES EXPECTED
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HAD
LONG TERM...HAD
AVIATION...NSC
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