853
FXUS63 KAPX 141731
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
131 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
-HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES QUIET AND DRY WEATHER TODAY AND TOMORROW
WITH SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF HAZE.
-SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES RETURN THIS WEEKEND.
-WATCHING FOR POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 229 AM EDT THU AUG 14 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS... OVERALL ZONAL FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA WITH SMALL HEIGHT DISTURBANCES KEEPING ACTIVE WEATHER
CHANCES FOR THE NORTHERN CONUS. LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC RIDGING WILL
KEEP SUBSIDENCE ALOFT OF THE CWA TODAY LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL FOR MID-AUGUST.
FORECAST DETAILS...
TODAY... QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
FROM THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHWOODS THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRETY OF
THE SHORT TERM. SOME PERIODS OF HAZE CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS
NORTHWEST LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TRACES OF CANADIAN WILDFIRE
SMOKE TO POUR INTO THE REGION. DEFINITELY NOT AS MUCH VERTICALLY
INTEGRATED SMOKE COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS OBSERVATIONS, BUT ENOUGH TO
SEE BITS OF HAZE ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL OF ANOTHER RED
SUNRISE/SUNSET. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW DIURNAL HEATING
PROCESS TO BRING DAYTIME HIGHS TO AROUND 80 DEGREES FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.
TONIGHT... WHILE CLOUD COVER CAN BE SEEN OVER WESTERN PARTS OF
EASTERN UPPER ALONG WITH WISCONSIN, SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR FOR
NORTHERN LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DROP
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR DEW POINT LEVELS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 60
DEGREES ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FOG FOR PARTS OF INTERIOR NORTHERN
LOWER... ESPECIALLY FOR LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS VALLEYS, INLAND
LAKES, NEAR MARINE LAYERS, ETC.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 229 AM EDT THU AUG 14 2025
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... SHORTWAVE RIDGING PROCESSES BEGIN TO BUILD
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS 850MB TEMPERATURES
INCREASE TO THE LOW 60S. ADIABATIC HEATING WILL RESULT IN DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S WITH LOW PROBABILITIES OF ONE OR TWO LOCATIONS
OBSERVING 90 NEAR SAGINAW BAY. MIDLEVEL CLOSED LOW PRESSURE WILL
SLOWLY PROGRESS ACROSS THE CANADIAN PROVIDENCE'S THIS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH AN ATTACHED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGRESSING THROUGH
THE MIDWEST. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION RETURN AS EARLY AS OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, BUT LOW/MODERATE INSTABILITY, WEAK
FRONTOGENESIS, AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES RATHER THAN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LOOKS RELATIVELY WEAK COMPARED TO THE REST OF
THE MIDWEST HAVING TO DEAL WITH MCS POTENTIAL, BUT SOME ISOLATED
HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH ONE OR TWO STRONGER STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY MONDAY... FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE TRACKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE CWA THIS SUNDAY LEADING TO MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SEVERE PARAMETERS HINT AT SOME POTENTIALLY STRONG STORMS
WITH HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF MICHIGAN, ESPECIALLY AREAS NEAR
MID/SOUTHERN MI. TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT EXACT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OR
HAZARDS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. WPC HAS MARKED
MICHIGAN WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE/LIKELIHOOD OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
LIKELY DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING STORMS, BUT THIS SET UP IS
VERY LOCALIZED, WHILE THE MAJORITY OF AREAS CAN ONLY EXPECT SMALL
AMOUNTS OF QPF.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OUTLOOK... MIDLEVEL HEIGHT RETURN BACK TO A
ZONAL PATTERN WITH THE STRONGEST FLOW WELL NORTH OF THE BORDER.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN AROUND AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR (MID/UPPER 70 DEGREE HIGHS) WITH MINIMAL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 129 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2025
LOW LEVEL SCT-BKN CU CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS FOR SOME TERMINALS, DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE, SCT HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING MORE SOUTH
TO EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY. SMALL CHANCE FOR BR TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT, MAINLY FOR APN, BUT NOT CONFIDENT IN THAT
POTENTIAL. OUTSIDE OF A ROGUE, LOW PROBABILITY SPRINKLE FROM THE
DEVELOPING CUMULUS, DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SJC
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...JLD
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