381
FNUS53 KAPX 141804
FWFAPX
FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
204 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2025
..PRECIPITATION FREE AND DRY THROUGH FRIDAY
DISCUSSION
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS, WITH MIN
HUMIDITY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 30S ACROSS THE INTERIOR. HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS WELL TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY, WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
SHIFTING TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND BECOMING A LITTLE BREEZY (GUSTS
AROUND 15 MPH AT TIMES). DEEP MIXING HEIGHTS (5.5 TO 7.5KFT) WILL
PROMOTE AGGRESSIVE DRYING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH MIN
HUMIDITIES IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE, LOWEST ACROSS THE
INTERIOR JUST INLAND OF THE COASTS. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THIS
WEEKEND, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BEST POTENTIAL LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH LATE SATURDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERN AT THIS TIME.
MIZ016-017-021>023-099-150830-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
204 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2025
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....58-63...EXCEPT 65-70 NEAR THE COAST.
24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT...EXCEPT 79-84 PERCENT ALONG THE
COAST.
24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED...EXCEPT 9 PERCENT DRIER ALONG THE
COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH EARLY.
VENT RATE...........POOR (38).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AROUND
12 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...0 PERCENT.
FRIDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....85-90...EXCEPT AROUND 80 NEAR THE COAST.
24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........31-36 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
UP TO 18 MPH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (696).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...3 PERCENT.
FRIDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....65-70.
24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........86-91 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......13 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 1 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 13 MPH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (23).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.13 IN .
CHANCE OF THUNDER...10 PERCENT.
SATURDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). SHOWERS LIKELY
AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....81-86...EXCEPT 72-77 NEAR THE COAST.
24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........61-66 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......38 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 27 PERCENT WETTER
ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 18 MPH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (282).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT......... 0.26- 0.53 IN.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...41 PERCENT.
MIZ018-024-030-036-042-150830-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
204 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2025
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....55-60...EXCEPT 63-68 NEAR THE COAST.
24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT...EXCEPT 82-87 PERCENT ALONG THE
COAST.
24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING
LIGHT.
VENT RATE...........POOR (28).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...0 PERCENT.
FRIDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). PATCHY DENSE FOG
UNTIL 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....84-89...EXCEPT 73-78 NEAR THE COAST.
24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........32-37 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 15 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (763).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...2 PERCENT.
FRIDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....62-67...EXCEPT 69-74 NEAR THE COAST.
24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........84-89 PERCENT...EXCEPT 75-80 PERCENT ALONG THE
COAST.
24 HR TREND......16 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
UP TO 13 MPH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (32).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN .
CHANCE OF THUNDER...3 PERCENT.
SATURDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....83-88...EXCEPT 72-77 NEAR THE COAST.
24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........55-60 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......27 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 21 PERCENT WETTER
ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .
VENT RATE...........GOOD (353).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT......... 0.05- 0.38 IN.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...40 PERCENT.
MIZ020-025>027-150830-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
204 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2025
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....58-63...EXCEPT 67-72 NEAR THE COAST.
24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 4 DEGREES WARMER NEAR
THE COAST.
MAX HUMIDITY........92-97 PERCENT...EXCEPT 80-85 PERCENT ALONG THE
COAST.
24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED...EXCEPT 12 PERCENT DRIER ALONG THE
COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
VENT RATE...........POOR (28).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST AROUND 12 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...0 PERCENT.
FRIDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....85-90...EXCEPT 73-78 NEAR THE COAST.
24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........32-37 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED...EXCEPT 5 PERCENT DRIER ALONG THE
COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
UP TO 18 MPH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (590).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...4 PERCENT.
FRIDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400, THEN
MOSTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....62-67...EXCEPT AROUND 70 NEAR THE COAST.
24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........88-93 PERCENT...EXCEPT 79-84 PERCENT ALONG THE
COAST.
24 HR TREND......13 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 5 PERCENT WETTER
ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 18 MPH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (33).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.06 IN .
CHANCE OF THUNDER...15 PERCENT.
SATURDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). SHOWERS LIKELY
UNTIL 1200. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....81-86...EXCEPT 71-76 NEAR THE COAST.
24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........63-68 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......33 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 27 PERCENT WETTER
ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 18 MPH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (303).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT......... 0.26- 0.50 IN.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...35 PERCENT.
MIZ031>033-150830-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
204 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2025
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....57-62.
24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........92-97 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT UNCHANGED ALONG THE
COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
VENT RATE...........POOR (29).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...0 PERCENT.
FRIDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....84-89...EXCEPT 77-82 NEAR THE COAST.
24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........32-37 PERCENT...EXCEPT 44-49 PERCENT ALONG THE
COAST.
24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 7 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
UP TO 18 MPH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (621).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...2 PERCENT.
FRIDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....64-69.
24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........87-92 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
UP TO 13 MPH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (33).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN .
CHANCE OF THUNDER...12 PERCENT.
SATURDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....82-87...EXCEPT AROUND 80 NEAR THE COAST.
24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........61-66 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......24 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 18 MPH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (336).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT......... 0.18- 0.63 IN.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...38 PERCENT.
MIZ028-029-034-035-041-150830-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
204 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2025
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....56-61.
24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING
LIGHT.
VENT RATE...........POOR (29).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...0 PERCENT.
FRIDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT). PATCHY DENSE FOG
UNTIL 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....85-90.
24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........30-35 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
UP TO 18 MPH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (850).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...2 PERCENT.
FRIDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....62-67.
24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........86-91 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......14 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
BECOMING LIGHT.
VENT RATE...........POOR (30).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...4 PERCENT.
SATURDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....84-89.
24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........60-65 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......32 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 18 MPH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (392).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT......... 0.03- 0.58 IN.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...39 PERCENT.
EXTENDED
SUNDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WEST
WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
MONDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
TUESDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
WEDNESDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
THURSDAY
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS AROUND 80.
NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
JLD
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