101
FXUS63 KAPX 141846
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
246 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND SEASONABLY WARM.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH AT LEAST A
MARGINAL CHANCE (5% OR MORE) FOR HEAVY/EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, BEST
POTENTIAL ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN UPPER.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AT TIMES, MAINLY EARLY NEXT WEEK
ACROSS NORTHERN MI.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST:
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY, BUT WILL HAVE
ENOUGH OF AN INFLUENCE TO KEEP THE REGION MOSTLY TO ALL DRY. LITTLE
SHORT WAVE ALOFT SWINGS THROUGH EARLY TO MIDDAY, WITH HINTS IN
GUIDANCE OF A LITTLE BIT OF DECAYING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS/CLOUDS MOVING
IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY ON FRIDAY. CONSEQUENTLY, CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISO SPRINKLE AS WELL. NON IMPACTFUL
NONETHELESS AND WILL NOT INCLUDE IN WEATHER GRIDS RIGHT NOW. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AS SFC HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. RELATIVELY DEEP MIXING WILL FOSTER
LOW LEVEL DRYING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, LEADING TO LOW HUMIDITY
VALUES ESPECIALLY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, AIDING CREDENCE TO DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAILING MOST LOCATIONS. SFC HIGH POSITIONING WILL MEAN
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW TONIGHT, WHICH, IN ADDITION
TO TEMPS COOLING TO SATURATION, MAY RESULT IN PATCHY MIST/FOG ACROSS
NORTHEAST LOWER.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2025
DAY 2-3 (SATURDAY-SUNDAY):
UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS FOR THIS WEEKEND IN REGARDS TO CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION. ACTUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY TAKE SOME TIME TO
MOVE SOUTHWARD, LIKELY SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. PRIOR TO
THAT, COUPLE ROUNDS/CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE (ALBEIT
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN DISSIPATION) DUE TO PERTURBATIONS MOVING
WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, MOST OF GUIDANCE HAS SEMBLANCE
OF THIS CONVECTIVELY AGITATED FEATURE, BUT WITH VARYING DEGREES
OF NORTH TO SOUTH EXTENT, AND FORWARD TRANSLATION SPEED. THUS,
HARD TO PINPOINT AN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN BASED ON THIS, OR IF THE
TIMING IS CORRECT FOR A DECENT RAIN EVENT. NEVERTHELESS, AT THIS
TIME, MOST ENS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NORTHWEST LOWER INTO EASTERN
UPPER WILL BE FAVORED FOR HEAVY/EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (COINCIDING
WITH WPC'S 5-15% RISK) WHICH IS ALSO THE LOCATION WITH THE BEST
COMBINATION OF VERTICALLY INTEGRATED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND
THUS MOST EFFICIENT RAINFALL. ALL THIS TO SAY THAT THERE WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. ROUGH EDUCATED GUESS AT EVOLUTION AT THIS TIME ON
SATURDAY: DECAYING CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST VERY LATE FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MOVES INTO OUR REGION WITH A FEW AREAS OF
HEAVY/EFFICIENT RAINFALL POSSIBLE. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WORKS FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAIN CONCERN (AS
HINTED AT IN SOME GUIDANCE), AND PERHAPS A FEW ROBUST STORMS.
ANOTHER LIKELY SCENARIO SUGGESTS A POTENT MCS ACROSS WI DIVES
SOUTH AND EAST LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, MISSING MUCH OF THE
AREA AND ROBBING SOME MOISTURE/INSTABILITY FROM N MI, WITH MUCH
LESS STORM COVERAGE OVERALL. WE'LL HAVE TO FINE TUNE THE DETAILS
IN THE COMING SHIFTS (LOTS OF CONVECTION YET TO DEVELOP ON
FRIDAY AND POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE PATTERN) AND NUDGE THE
FORECAST IN ONE OF THESE DIRECTIONS. WILL HEDGE MORE TOWARDS THE
FORMER SCENARIO AT THIS TIME WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
DEEP MOISTURE AND MARGINAL SHEAR WILL LIKELY MUTE THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL TO SOME EXTENT, BUT THERE MAY STILL BE A WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR A LEAST A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS GIVEN THE
INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL SHEAR (25-30KTS BULK/EFFECTIVE SFC-6KM), IN
ADDITION TO FORCING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIKELY LATER
SATURDAY. WILL BE A TIMING ISSUE IN THAT REGARD (ENOUGH INSTABILITY
REMAINS WHILE THE FORCING ARRIVES), BUT FOR NOW SPC OUTLOOK KEEPS
THE AREA IN GENERAL THUNDER, SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN AT THIS TIME.
COULD STILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS LINGER ON SUNDAY, BUT LOOKS
LIKE THE BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTHWARD AND WASHES OUT SOME OF THE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND BEST LIFT, AND THUS WILL BE QUIETER DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS, AND COOLER MOST AREAS.
DAYS 4-5 (MONDAY - TUESDAY):
RIDGING CONTINUES TO EXPAND ACROSS THE NATION, CENTERING OUT WEST
ACROSS THE DESERT SW AND BUILDING NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF CANADA.
NORTHERN MI REMAINS IN A BATTLE GROUND OF BETTER INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE IMPINGES FROM THE NORTH. THERE IS SOME SIGNAL FOR
AN INFLUX OF THAT MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK THOUGH. THUS,
SHOWER/STORM THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE MONDAY TO TUESDAY
TIME FRAME, BUT TO THE SPATIAL EXTENT IS TO BE DETERMINED BY THE
OVERALL PATTERN ALOFT (HOW MUCH MOISTURE CAN INTRUDE INTO NORTHERN
LOWER) AND THE SUBTLETIES WITHIN THE MESOSCALE REGIME UPSTREAM. AS
OF NOW, BEST POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, AND
PROBABLY BETTER POTENTIAL THE FARTHER SOUTH ONE GOES, BUT THAT IS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE BECAUSE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED REASONS. FOR WHAT IT
IS WORTH, WPC HAS OUR ENTIRE COUNTY WARNING AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK
(5% OR GREATER) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM MONDAY MORNING TO
TUESDAY MORNING.
DAYS 6-7 (WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY)
NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE PATTERN DURING THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF
NEXT WEEK WITH RIDGING DOMINATING AND ELONGATING ACROSS UPPER
MIDWEST AND ADJACENT CANADA. OVERALL TREND IS A DECREASE IN MOISTURE
AND THUS LOWERING PRECIPITATION CHANCES, AT LEAST AT THIS TIME WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 129 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2025
LOW LEVEL SCT-BKN CU CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS FOR SOME TERMINALS, DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE, SCT HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING MORE SOUTH
TO EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY. SMALL CHANCE FOR BR TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT, MAINLY FOR APN, BUT NOT CONFIDENT IN THAT
POTENTIAL. OUTSIDE OF A ROGUE, LOW PROBABILITY SPRINKLE FROM THE
DEVELOPING CUMULUS, DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...JLD
LONG TERM...JLD
AVIATION...JLD
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