258
FXUS63 KAPX 150655
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
255 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
-SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE IN TONIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND
THE "TIP OF THE MITT".
-ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LEAD TO LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE PENITENTIAL OF A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS.
-HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS OVERALL QUIET WEATHER NEXT WEEK WITH LOW
PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS AT TIMES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 254 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS... ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES
CONTINUES ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY. CURRENT WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING
SCHEME WILL CONTINUE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND OVERALL QUIET
CONDITIONS. UPSTREAM VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW PRESSURE OVER
HUDSON BAY WITH AN ATTACHED COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND RETURN CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST DETAILS...
TODAY... SUBSIDENCE ALOFT CONTINUES SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
CWA, RESULTING IN ANOTHER DAY OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 80 DEGREE FAHRENHEIT RANGE. WILDFIRE
VERTICALLY INTEGRATED SMOKE LEVELS TOMORROW WILL REMAIN PRETTY LOW.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN PRETTY CLOSE TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED
THURSDAY WHERE AQI WILL BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO
CAUSE HEALTH CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPSTREAM FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKES ITS
WAY TO THE NORTHWOODS TONIGHT RETURNING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. CURRENT GUIDANCE DEPICTS THE LEADING
EDGE OF RAINFALL MOVING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS IT RETURNS ROUNDS
OF RAINFALL INTO THE WEEKEND. MODEL SOUNDING PROFILES DEPICT A DEEP
WARM AND MOIST RAIN LAYER WITH MODERATE SHEAR LEVELS LEADING TO
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA. AREAS ALONG EASTERN UPPER
AND LOCATIONS NEAR THE TIP OF THE MITT CAN EXPECT A GENERAL QUARTER
TO HALF INCH ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WELL
OVER AND INCH OF QPF FOR AREAS EXPERIENCING TRAINING STORMS. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT OVERNIGHT REMAINS PRETTY LOW.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 254 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2025
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY... ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN THE MAIN
THREAT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS
MICHIGAN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WPC CONTINUES
TO LIST MOST OF THE CWA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF QPF REMAIN BETWEEN A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH
OF LIQUID RAINFALL. OBVIOUSLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH MULTIPLE INCHES
ARE LIKELY FOR LOCALIZED AREAS IN A CONVECTIVE DRIVEN RAINFALL SYSTEM
LIKE THIS ONE WITH PWATS NEAR CLIMATE MAXIMA'S AND IDEAL DEEP MOIST
ATMOSPHERIC LAYERS. MODERATE INSTABILITY BUILDS THIS WEEKEND WHICH
COULD PRODUCE SOME STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. MAIN HAZARD FOR SEVERE
WEATHER IS DOWNDRAFT WIND WITH ANY CELLS THAT CARRY OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THAT COULD HAVE ENOUGH MOMENTUM TO
PRODUCE DAMAGING SURFACE WINDS. OVERALL; MOST AREAS CAN JUST EXPECT
MAINLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OUTLOOK... MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD A
RIDGING PATTER NEXT WEEK THAT SUPPORTS LARGE SCALE HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. LOW PROBABILITIES OF
PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS, ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TUESDAY TIMEFRAME. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN AROUND CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2025
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNRISE WITH PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR VSBYS
MOST LIKELY AT MBL/APN. OTHERWISE, VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS LARGELY SUSTAINED AOB 10 KTS.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SJC
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...MJG
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