990
FXUS63 KAPX 151727
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
127 PM EDT FRI AUG 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
-SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE IN TONIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND
THE "TIP OF THE MITT".
-ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LEAD TO LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
THIS WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS.
-HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS OVERALL QUIET WEATHER NEXT WEEK WITH LOW
PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS AT TIMES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 254 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS... ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES
CONTINUES ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY. CURRENT WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING
SCHEME WILL CONTINUE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND OVERALL QUIET
CONDITIONS. UPSTREAM VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW PRESSURE OVER
HUDSON BAY WITH AN ATTACHED COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND RETURN CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AS
EARLY AS TONIGHT.
FORECAST DETAILS...
TODAY... SUBSIDENCE ALOFT CONTINUES SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
CWA, RESULTING IN ANOTHER DAY OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 80S. WILDFIRE VERTICALLY
INTEGRATED SMOKE LEVELS TODAY WILL REMAIN PRETTY LOW. CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN PRETTY CLOSE TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED THURSDAY
WHERE AQI WILL BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CAUSE
HEALTH CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPSTREAM FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKES ITS
WAY TO THE NORTHWOODS TONIGHT RETURNING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. CURRENT GUIDANCE DEPICTS THE LEADING EDGE OF RAINFALL
MOVING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS IT RETURNS ROUNDS OF RAINFALL
INTO THE WEEKEND. MODEL SOUNDING PROFILES DEPICT A DEEP WARM AND
MOIST RAIN LAYER WITH MODERATE SHEAR LEVELS LEADING TO ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA. AREAS ALONG EASTERN UPPER AND
LOCATIONS NEAR THE TIP OF THE MITT CAN EXPECT A GENERAL QUARTER TO
HALF INCH ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WELL
OVER AN INCH OF QPF FOR AREAS EXPERIENCING TRAINING STORMS.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT OVERNIGHT REMAINS PRETTY LOW.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 254 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2025
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY... ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN THE MAIN
THREAT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS
MICHIGAN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WPC CONTINUES
TO LIST MOST OF THE CWA UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF QPF REMAIN BETWEEN A HALF INCH
TO ONE INCH OF LIQUID RAINFALL. OBVIOUSLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH
MULTIPLE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FOR LOCALIZED AREAS IN A CONVECTIVE
DRIVEN RAINFALL SYSTEM LIKE THIS ONE WITH PWATS NEAR CLIMATE MAX
AND IDEAL DEEP MOIST ATMOSPHERIC LAYERS. MODERATE INSTABILITY
BUILDS THIS WEEKEND WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME STRONG/SEVERE STORMS.
MAIN HAZARD FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS DOWNDRAFT WIND WITH ANY CELLS
THAT CARRY OVERNIGHT SATURDAY ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THAT COULD HAVE
ENOUGH MOMENTUM TO PRODUCE DAMAGING SURFACE WINDS. OVERALL; MOST
AREAS CAN JUST EXPECT MAINLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OUTLOOK... MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD A
RIDGING PATTERN NEXT WEEK THAT SUPPORTS LARGE SCALE HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. LOW PROBABILITIES OF
PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS, ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TUESDAY TIMEFRAME. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN AROUND CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT FRI AUG 15 2025
AFTERNOON CUMULUS, BASES AROUND 4-6KFT AGL WILL FADE AROUND SUNSET
AS USUAL, WITH ONSHORE LAKE BREEZES MOST NOTABLE FOR APN. MID CLOUDS
WITH BASES AROUND 10-15KFT AT TIMES, ESP OVERNIGHT. INCREASING
CHANCES FOR RAIN LATE, EARLIEST AT CIU/PLN...THOUGH RAIN/STORMS
COULD HOLD OFF TILL AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD. RAIN SHOULD BE SLOWEST TO
GET INTO APN AND MBL. CIGS TONIGHT GENERALLY REMAIN VFR TO MVFR BUT
NOT IMPOSSIBLE FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AGAIN, WHICH COULD REDUCE
VISBYS TO IFR OR LOWER AGAIN. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AT THE SURFACE
BECOME MORE SW WITH TIME SATURDAY MORNING. POTENTIAL FOR A 20-30KT
JET AROUND 2KFT AGL TONIGHT BUT HAVE LEFT WS OUT OF TAFS FOR
NOW.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SJC
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...FEF
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