509
FXUS63 KAPX 040528
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
128 AM EDT THU SEP 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MOST NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
- CHILLY AND UNSETTLED WEATHER AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT WED SEP 3 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: ANOMALOUSLY STRONG CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN ONTARIO WITH
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NEARING JAMES BAY. BOTH OF THESE
FEATURES BEGIN TO PINWHEEL NORTH TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING THURSDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. SURFACE COLD FRONT TIED TO LOW PRESSURE
TO OUR NORTH CROSSES NORTHERN MI THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONG POST-
FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE LINGERS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM HEADING THROUGH
THURSDAY, ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT OVER-WATER INSTABILITY AND AN
OCCASIONAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RACING THROUGH LARGER SCALE TROUGHING.
FORECAST DETAILS: COLD FRONT BEGINNING TO MAKE HEADWAY INTO FAR
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST
NUMEROUS PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUING ACROSS SECTIONS OF
NORTHERN LOWER MI. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, MLCAPE
PROGGED UP TO 500 J/KG AND INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR YIELDS NON-ZERO CHANCES FOR A STRONGER STORM OR TWO
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. BY EARLY EVENING, MOST
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST WITH A GENERAL DRYING TREND ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THAT
SAID, POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME LINGERING DRIZZLE THROUGH THE
EVENING AND ADDITIONAL LAKE INDUCED RAIN SHOWERS, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.P.
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO FALL STEADILY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
ON THE HEELS OF OCCASIONALLY BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. LOWS TONIGHT
GENERALLY IN THE 40S AREA-WIDE.
WHILE SOMEWHAT OF A BREAK IN THE ACTION IS ANTICIPATED THURSDAY,
CHILLY TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE 50S FOR MANY AREAS ALONG WITH
OCCASIONALLY BREEZY WINDS WILL GIVE THE DAY QUITE THE FALL-FEEL.
SOME LAKE INDUCED RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT TIMES AS WELL,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS SECTIONS OF CHIPPEWA COUNTY AND IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW LAKE BELTS OF FAR NORTHWEST LOWER.
LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT WED SEP 3 2025
BY THURSDAY EVENING, LARGE SCALE TROUGHING REMAINS OVERHEAD WITH A
PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO BE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THIS WAVE PROGGED TO ARRIVE INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. COINCIDING
SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO AID IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS WITH POTENTIAL FOR THE FALL'S
FIRST WIDESPREAD GALE WIND EVENT ON PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPS
FRIDAY SIMILAR TO THAT OF THURSDAY WITH MANY AREAS STRUGGLING TO GET
OUT OF THE 50S. BEST POTENTIAL FOR LOWER 60S NEAR SAGINAW BAY.
SATURDAY AND POTENTIALLY INTO SUNDAY FEATURES CONTINUED COOL AND
OCCASIONALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPIN TO
OUR NORTH BEFORE EVENTUALLY DEPARTING LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
OCCASIONAL MID-LEVEL WAVES, POCKETS OF DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
AND A FAVORABLE OVER-WATER THERMAL GRADIENT LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO
BRING PERIODS OF LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS AT TIMES.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, LONGER RANGE ENSEMBLE MEANS SUGGEST MORE ZONAL
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ARRIVING OVERHEAD WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
TREKKING IN FROM THE WEST AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TRENDS SUGGEST A RETURN TO MORE
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS LOCALLY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING
INTO THE 60S FOR MONDAY AND NEAR 70 DEGREES FOR MANY AREAS
TUESDAY. POTENTIALLY SOME NIGHTTIME FROST CONCERNS SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT THU SEP 4 2025
MAINLY VFR, WITH LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT TIMES
(ESPECIALLY EARLY THURSDAY). CHILLY AIR WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA,
BUT WE SEE SOME DRYER AIR ALSO PUSH IN EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME
CU/STRATOCU WILL BE SEEN, BUT MAINLY VFR. CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT, JUST BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD. SOMEWHAT GUSTY
WSW TO W WINDS.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LHZ345.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
LHZ345>349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LHZ346>349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LSZ321.
SHORT TERM...MJG
LONG TERM...MJG
AVIATION...JZ
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