987
FXUS63 KAPX 042240
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
640 PM EDT THU SEP 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT
RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- WINDY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
- BECOMING MILDER NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT THU SEP 4 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST:
VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH DIGS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO LAKE MI
TONIGHT, PULLED POLEWARD BY THE DEEP UPPER LOW WELL TO THE NORTH IN
ONTARIO DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THUS, PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO PORTIONS OF FRIDAY, FAVORING AREAS WEST
OF 75 AND ESPECIALLY NORTH INTO THE E UP. RELATIVELY DEEP LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CONSEQUENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA AND A STOUT LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELD. THUS, WINDY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED NOT ONLY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES, BUT LAND AS WELL.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
WINDY CONDITIONS:
ARGUABLY THE MOST IMPACTFUL WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS WILL BE THE
WINDY CONDITIONS THAT DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT INTO PORTIONS OF FRIDAY.
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL RESULT IN RELATIVELY SHALLOW MIXING,
AND SO THIS WILL LIKELY MUTE THE POTENTIAL ON LAND TO SOME EXTENT.
HOWEVER, A PERIOD OF PRETTY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE EARLY PORTIONS OF FRIDAY AS THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS
MOVE OVERHEAD. GENERALLY, WIND GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 30 TO 40 MPH
THROUGH THE DAY WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER 40 MPH NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. SOME OF THE PROGGED SOUNDING PROFILES DO SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF EVEN STRONGER WIND GUSTS (NEAR
ADVISORY) DURING THAT FRIDAY AM TIME FRAME AND ALONG THE SHORELINES,
BUT THE SPATIAL EXTENT AND BRIEF NATURE OF THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
PRECLUDE ANY SORT OF MENTION OTHERWISE. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
TAPPER, TO AN EXTENT, FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL:
SOME LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE TIP OF THE MITT AND NEAR THE BRIDGE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST AS WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE INCOMING TROUGH THIS EVENING AND
EARLY OVERNIGHT, RESULTING IN PERHAPS SOME ADDITIONAL SOUTHWEST LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS POTENTIAL WHICH
MAKES SENSE (POPS REFLECT THIS). MAIN FORCING ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND INTO PORTIONS OF FRIDAY, AS A MULTITUDE OF LIFTING MECHANISMS
SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST. FOR CERTAIN, THE BEST AVENUE FOR WETTING
PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEST OF 75 AND ESPECIALLY INTO PORTIONS OF THE
UP AS THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT OVERSPREADS THIS REGION. COULD BE
A HEALTHY RAIN FOR SOME, WITH AN EMBEDDED STORM OR TWO, ALTHOUGH
MEAGER INSTABILITY LIMITS ANY SERIOUS CONVECTIVE THREAT OUTSIDE OF A
WATER SPOUT OR TWO (EVEN THEN THE LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE PRETTY
STRONG). NEVERTHELESS, SEVERAL PIECES OF DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SHOW
THE POTENTIAL FOR 0.75"+ RAINS, BEST POTENTIAL ACROSS WESTERN MACK
AND CHIPP COUNTIES. SUPPLEMENT THIS WITH ENS GUIDANCE SHOWING LOW TO
MEDIUM PROBS (ROUGHLY 20 TO 50%) FOR GREATER THAN 1" IN THE SAME
LOCATION PROVIDES CREDENCE TO THE IDEA OF WETTING RAINS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT THU SEP 4 2025
DAY 2-3 (SATURDAY-SUNDAY):
COLD POOL ALOFT FROM A DEEPENING 500 MB TROUGH LINGERS OVERHEAD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOWER TROPOSPHERIC TEMPS REMAINING
SEASONABLY COOL AND FALL LIKE. THUS, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE 50S MUCH OF THE AREA, BETTER CHANCE FOR 60S NEAR SAGINAW BAY.
WINDS REMAIN A SLIGHT TINGE BREEZY, BUT GENERALLY GUSTING BETWEEN 15
AND 25 MPH AT TIMES. DUE TO THE COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND
RELATIVELY WARM LAKES, LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SHOWERS REMAIN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. BEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE SPATIAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY IN
PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE LATER SAT INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS DPVA INCREASES
FROM THE WEST. WOULD ASSUME AT LEAST SOME WATERSPOUT POTENTIAL AS
WELL.
DAYS 4-7 (MONDAY - THURSDAY):
ALTHOUGH MILDER NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS ALOFT INCREASE, AT LEAST SOME
SHOWER POTENTIAL EXISTS, MAINLY MID WEEK AS TROUGHINESS CONTINUES TO
SPIN OFF TO THE NORTH. HARD TO DISCERN MUCH IN THE WAY OF DETAILS AT
THIS TIME, BUT AS OF NOW, NORTHERN MI IS NOT OUTLOOKED IN ANY
NATIONAL PRODUCTS (EXCESSIVE RAIN, THUNDER, OR OTHERWISE) AND WINDS
APPEAR RELATIVELY LIGHT. THUS, POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTFUL WEATHER,
OUTCOME OF SOME PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL, REMAINS LOW.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 635 PM EDT THU SEP 4 2025
LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
UNDER SOME PASSING MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. LOWER CIGS TO
MVFR SET TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST LATER
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS LOWER CLOUD DECK. SOME
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS
THIS EVENING BECOME INCREASINGLY GUSTY LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST...WITH GUSTS LIKELY EXCEEDING 30
KNOTS AT TIMES. QUICK HITTING SHOT OF WIND SHEAR EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE THESE STRONGER SURFACE WINDS ARRIVE.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
MIZ016-099.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 4 AM EDT FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR MIZ016>018-020-021-024>026-030-031-036-042-
088-095>099.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
LSZ321-322.
SHORT TERM...JLD
LONG TERM...JLD
AVIATION...MSB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page