799
FXUS63 KAPX 060529
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
129 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDS TAPER SOME TONIGHT.
- COOL AND SHOWERY AT TIMES TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT FRI SEP 5 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST:
ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OFF TO THE NORTH TONIGHT,
WITH A SHORT WAVE PIECE BEING PULLED NORTHWARD INTO MI INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. WESTERLY FLOW REMAINS INTO SATURDAY, WITH
ANOTHER VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL DIVING OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST INTO MN/WI BY THE EVENING HOURS. THESE TWO
FEATURES AND THE ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY WITH THE WARM LAKES WILL
DRIVE WAVES OF SHOWERS/LAKE INDUCED PRECIPITATION FROM LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
DIMINISHING WINDS:
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS,
ALTHOUGH SOME LOCATIONS MAY MIX ENOUGH TO KEEP WINDS GOING TO SOME
EXTENT. NEVERTHELESS, THE VALUES WILL DECREASE, AND EXPECT MUCH
LIGHTER AND CALMER WINDS IN THE LOCATIONS THAT SUFFICIENTLY
DECOUPLE. ONCE MIXING PICKS BACK UP SATURDAY MORNING, SOMEWHAT
BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURN BRIEFLY, THEN VALUES SLOWLY DECREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS WINDS ALOFT BECOME WEAKER.
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL:
COUPLE PIECES OF ENERGY ALOFT WILL LIKELY KICK OFF VARIOUS ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ONE SUCH "ROUND"/PIECE MAY
COME LATE TONIGHT INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY PORTIONS OF SATURDAY, WITH
SOUNDINGS SHOWING A LAKE ENHANCED PROFILE. WILL LIKELY BY A NARROW
BAND OF SHOWERS AS A RESULT DURING THIS TIME WITH LINGERING
ACTIVITY/SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. ANOTHER VIGOROUS PIECE
DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS. TOUGH TO TELL THE EXACT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE,
BUT LOW TOPPED CONVECTION CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AS THE COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT OOZE OVERHEAD. COULD BE SOME MODEST TO "MODERATE"
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE "TYPICAL" NORTHWEST
FLOW LAKE SPOTS. SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL WIDEN THE PRECIP COVERAGE
BEYOND THE JACKPOT ZONES THOUGH.
LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT FRI SEP 5 2025
DAY 2-3 (SUNDAY-MONDAY):
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE ON SUNDAY. ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE WANING BY LATER SUNDAY AS DRIER CONDITIONS MOVE IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE BREEZY ON
SUNDAY AS WELL. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON MONDAY, RESULTING IN
MILDER/WARMER CONDITIONS.
DAYS 4-7 (TUESDAY - FRIDAY):
GUIDANCE HINTS AT A WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES
SOMETIME DURING THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE WEEK. MOST ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A SHOT OF PRECIP ON TUESDAY, AND SO OUR
POPS REFLECT THIS SCENARIO. CERTAINLY COULD BE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH
THIS TIMING IN THE COMING DAYS, HOWEVER. FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE DOES NOT SEEM TOO POTENT OVERALL AND SHORT LIVED
AS SOME DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SHOW IMPRESSIVE RIDGING BUILDING BACK
IN BY THE END OF THE FORECAST CYCLE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2025
COOL AIR AND SPOTTY LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE. BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE CIU/PLN/TVC. MOSTLY VFR EVEN WITH THE
ABOVE, THOUGH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE (BOTH
CIGS/VSBYS) IN BETTER SHOWERS. BREEZY W TO WNW WINDS CONTINUE,
BUT NOT AS WINDY AS FRIDAY.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
MIZ016>018-020-021-024>026-030-031-036-042-088-095>099.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
LHZ345>349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ323-
341-342-344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ321-
322.
SHORT TERM...JLD
LONG TERM...JLD
AVIATION...JZ
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