072
FXUS63 KAPX 061859
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
259 PM EDT SAT SEP 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED STORMS TONIGHT.
- COOL TEMPS CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS SUNDAY.
- TEMPS REBOUND EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK; SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT SAT SEP 6 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST:
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIVING
DOWN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS FEATURE, ALONG WITH THE COLD
POOL ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH IT, WILL ROTATE INTO PORTIONS OF MICHIGAN
TONIGHT, KICKING OFF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS MAIN WAVE WORKS EASTWARD ON SUNDAY, BUT PROGGED
GUIDANCE SUGGEST A LITTLE BLOB OF COOL TEMPS ALOFT/SECONDARY TROUGH
AXIS LINGERING INTO PORTIONS OF THE AFTERNOON. THUS, EXPECT AN
DECREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE, BUT SHOWERS/LAKE EFFECT PRECIP WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THIS AXIS ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER JET MAX DIVES DOWN
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR BY THE END OF SUNDAY, BUT THE
LIFT/INSTABILITY FROM THIS FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY TO THE
NORTH AS TEMPS ALOFT INCREASE LATER SUNDAY. ADDITIONALLY, SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST,
ALTHOUGH COOL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEKEND.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL:
TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN AN
UPTICK IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND LIKELY INTENSITY. MEAGER, BUT
ENOUGH FORCING AND INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AS WELL. "BEST" INSTABILITY WILL HUG
NORTHWEST LOWER COAST, BLEEDING IN FROM THE LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY
AND THUS THE BEST CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. LOOKS LIKE
THE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL MAXIMIZE ALONG THE SHORELINES
AND JUST DOWNWIND OF NORTHWEST LOWER AND INTO WESTERN PORTIONS
OF EASTERN UPPER, A FAMILIAR REGION DURING THE WINTER SEASON.
THIS INITIAL WAVE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO WIND DOWN LATER
TONIGHT WHILE A SECONDARY TROUGH AXIS WILL LIKELY KICK OFF MORE
IN THE WAY OF LAKE INDUCED SHOWERS EARLY ON SUNDAY. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE IN SPOTS THROUGH THE DAY BUT COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OVERALL SHOULD BE LESS. PRECIPITATION WANES BY THE
LATER AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS ON SUNDAY, IF NOT PRIOR TO THEN.
GIVEN THE WEAKER WINDS, STEEPER LAPSE RATES/COOLER AIR ALOFT/MINOR
INSTABILITY, WATERSPOUTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES,
BEST POTENTIAL BEING TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT SAT SEP 6 2025
DAY 2-3 (MONDAY-TUESDAY):
REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS WINDS SHIFT MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. NEXT
LITTLE WAVE APPROACHES TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LOWER INTO EASTERN
UPPER. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AROUND THE EXACT EASTWARD EXTENT OF
THE PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WARM INTO
TUESDAY AS WELL, WITH 70S ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER AND 60S
IN EASTERN UPPER.
DAYS 4-7 (WEDNESDAY - SATURDAY):
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE MAIN PRECIP THREAT WILL BE PRIOR TO MID
WEEK, ALTHOUGH WE'LL HAVE TO MONITOR A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED JET MAX
PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. THERE COULD BE A SHOWER OR
TWO ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURES ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
BRIEFLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY/MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER DUE TO MORE OF
AN EASTERLY WIND DIRECTION. GENERALLY DRY DURING THIS TIME
THOUGH.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT SAT SEP 6 2025
VFR/ MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF TODAY WITH
CONTINUED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS IMPACTING AREA TERMINAL
SITES THROUGH SUNDAY... TRENDING TOWARDS VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD,
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT/ SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS TURN NORTHWEST SUNDAY WITH GUSTS TO 15 KTS.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ016-
020-025-031-088-096-098-099.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.
SHORT TERM...JLD
LONG TERM...JLD
AVIATION...NSC
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